Week Ahead

The Economic Week Ahead: August 21-25

Aug 19, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 14-18

Aug 12, 2023 2 min read paid

This week is packed with July's composite cyclical indicator releases which should ease fears that economic growth might be too strong given that real GDP is tracking at 4.1% (saar) for Q3 currently. That's quite a reversal from a few months ago when there were widespread fears of a recession. Consider the following: (1) The YRI Earned Income Proxy for private-industry wages and salaries in

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 7-11

Aug 5, 2023 2 min read paid

Everyone hold your breath: The next BIG inflation number will be July's CPI (Thu). It could be troublesome for bonds and stocks. That's if the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting is on track. It is updated each business day. On August 4, it projected that the headline and core CPI inflation rates will both be up 0.4% m/m. The comparable y/y inflation

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 31-August 4

Jul 30, 2023 2 min read paid

The M-PMI is released on the first business day of each month. The NM-PMI is released two days later. We expect that the former (Tue) will show that the rolling recession in the goods-producing sector is bottoming, while the latter (Thu) should show that the service-providing sector is still expanding. We already have four of the regional business surveys conducted by five FRB district banks. The average of their general

Stephen Rybka

The Economic Week Ahead: July 24-28

Jul 23, 2023 2 min read paid

The Fed is widely expected to hike the federal funds rate (FFR) on Wednesday by 25bps to a range of 5.25%-5.50%. Will that be restrictive enough for the Fed? Will that be the terminal rate? At his presser on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to say: "Maybe, maybe not." He will acknowledge that inflation is still moderating even though

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 17-21

Jul 16, 2023 2 min read paid

The good news is that the Federal Open Mouth Committee is prohibited from talking publicly now until July 27. That's the day after the end of the next FOMC meeting, when it is widely expected they will hike the federal funds rate by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%. It is also widely expected that will be "one-and-done" for Fed rate hiking for a while. We

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 10-14

Jul 8, 2023 2 min read

This week is jampacked with June's inflation indicators. On balance, they should show that inflation continues to moderate. On Monday, the FRBNY survey of consumer inflationary expectations should decline from May's 4.1% for the one-year-ahead and 3.0% for the three-years-ahead readings. The price of gasoline has a big impact on these expectations, and it was down 26.5% y/y during the four weeks

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 3-7

Jul 2, 2023 2 min read paid

The first week of every month tends to be jampacked with employment and PMI releases. All eyes will be on June's employment report at the end of the week. The recent upturn in initial unemployment claims suggests that the labor market may be cooling off a bit. Thursday's jobless claims should confirm that. However, that same day, May's JOLTS report should show that job

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 26-30

Jun 24, 2023 2 min read paid

May's personal income will be released on Friday. It is likely to be the week's most important economic indicator. It should show that consumers' incomes continue to grow, while inflation is still moderating. We know that our Earned Income Proxy for private wages and salaries in personal income rose to a record high in May (chart). We also expect to see that receipts of unearned

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 20-23

Jun 18, 2023 2 min read

It's a short and light week for economic data. We'll be focusing on May's Composite Cyclical Indicators (Thu). The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) is the best monthly indicator of the business cycle. It tracks the y/y growth rate of real GDP very closely (chart). It was up 1.7% y/y during April, while real GDP rose 1.6% during Q1.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 12-16

Jun 10, 2023 2 min read paid

This will be a head spinning week. It could also be another rollercoaster ride in the financial markets. Maybe we should go on vacation and come back on Friday following the deluge of economic indicators from Monday through Thursday, and a FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to boot. May's CPI will be released on Tuesday morning just as the FOMC convenes for a two-day meeting, which will

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, June 5-9

Jun 4, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a very light week for economic indicators. In addition, the Federal Open Mouth Committee will be silent until their blackout period ends after the FOMC meets on June 14 and 15. On the other hand, now that the debt ceiling deal was signed into law Saturday by President Joe Biden, the US Treasury will flood the fixed income markets with lots of securities to refill its checking

Ed Yardeni

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