Week Ahead

The Economic Week Ahead: December 18 - 22

Dec 17, 2023 2 min read paid

On Wednesday, at his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish. So bond and stock prices continued to rally on expectations that the Fed might cut the federal funds rate three times in 2024 by 75bps in total. On Friday, NY Fed President John Williams pushed back by saying, "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now." More Fed officials will weigh in on

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 11 - 15

Dec 10, 2023 2 min read paid

The big event of the week will be the FOMC meeting (Tue & Wed) followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's presser (Wed @ 2:30 pm). December's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be released along with the Dot Plot after the meeting. The markets have most likely fully discounted what Powell will say and what the SEP and Dot Plot will show. Powell will say that

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 4 - 8

Dec 3, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 27 - December 1

Nov 26, 2023 2 min read paid

The BIG number of the week is likely to be October's personal consumption expenditures deflator (Thu). It should confirm the ongoing moderation in consumer price inflation shown by October's CPI and PPI reports (chart). The core PPI final demand for personal consumption was down to just 2.5% y/y in October. It does not include rent inflation, which is still high but heading lower. The

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 6 - 10

Nov 4, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a light week for US economic indicators. However, the FOMC's blackout period is over, so there should be lots of erudite remarks coming from the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee. They are likely to be less hawkish following last week's batch of somewhat weak economic indicators--though the batch wasn't weak enough to cause more than a tiny decline in

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: October 29 - November 3

Oct 29, 2023 2 min read paid

Investors would clearly like to see peace on earth and goodwill towards all people. But that ain't happening anytime soon. They would also like to see the US economy slow so that inflation will fall faster and the Fed will turn less hawkish. That ain't likely to happen this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will probably be as hawkish at his presser on Wednesday, following the

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 23-27

Oct 22, 2023 2 min read

This week should be another disappointing one for the hard-landers. That's been true all year and especially during Q3, when the economic surprises were mostly to the upside as shown by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (chart). Q3's real GDP (Thu) is tracking at 5.4% (saar) for the quarter according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow. The labor market indicators are likely to show

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: October 16-20

Oct 15, 2023 2 min read paid

The big banks kicked off the Q3 earnings season this past Friday. Their results beat expectations. That's consistent with our view that S&P 500 operating earnings per share rose to a record high during Q3. So we have nothing to fear other than higher interest rates, a consumer-led recession, persistent inflation, and more horror in Ukraine and now the Middle East too. The week's

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 9-13

Oct 7, 2023 2 min read paid

This is a big week for two big issues troubling the bond market, namely inflation and the US federal budget deficit. The BIG event will be September's CPI (Thu). This time, September's PPI (Wed) will be released the day before instead of the day after the CPI. The headline inflation rates of both were inflated by energy prices, particularly gasoline prices (chart). The core CPI will

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 25-29

Sep 23, 2023 2 min read paid

This is a relatively slow week for economic data. That means that the markets will be mostly entertained by the talking heads of the Federal Open Mouth Committee. The chattering started on Friday, when two Fed officials (Governor Michelle Bowman and Boston Fed President Susan Collins) endorsed Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remark during his presser on Wednesday: "[W]e're committed to achieving and sustaining a

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 11-15

Sep 9, 2023 2 min read

This could be a big week for the stock and bond markets. There will be lots of market-moving inflation indicators: Inflation expectations (Mon), small business pricing intentions (Tue), CPI (Wed), PPI (Thu), and import & export prices (Fri). There will also be a couple of business cycle indicators that could move the markets: retail sales (Thu) and industrial production (Fri). On balance, we expect that the inflation stats will confirm

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 5-8

Sep 2, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a short week ahead and a light one for economic releases. We expect that the financial markets will start to focus on the following week when both the CPI and the federal deficit will be released for August on Wednesday, September 13. One week after that happens, the FOMC will decide whether to hike the federal funds rate or not. We think the Fed is done. We

Ed Yardeni

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