Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Fed - Peak Hawkishness?

Jan 31, 2023 3 min read paid

The FOMC’s two-day meeting ends tomorrow. At 2:00 p.m., the committee will issue its statement, and at 2:30 p.m., Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his usual after-meeting press conference. For the other Fed officials, the blackout period preventing public comments ends on Friday. The next blackout period starts on March 11. So we can look forward to lots of commentary from the Fed heads

Ed Yardeni

Betting On S&P 500 Sectors In 2023

Jan 30, 2023 1 min read paid

While stock picking may be back in style and momentum investing is running out of momentum, we are still keeping track of the relative performance of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to one another and to the overall index (chart). Our four favorite sector picks for this year are Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials. These are our overweight recommendations. We would market-weight Information Technology and Health Care. We

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Jan. 30 - Feb. 3

Jan 29, 2023 1 min read paid

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. Odds are the committee will vote for a 25bps federal funds rate hike to 4.50%-4.75%. Odds are that Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his Wednesday afternoon presser will continue to sound hawkish even though economic growth is slowing and inflation is moderating. This week will also be jampacked with employment indicators. January's Consumer Confidence (Tue) is likely to

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Jan 28, 2023 1 min read

Here is Joe Feshbach's latest take on the S&P 500: "The index is getting closer to its two previous highs of 4100,and thus a possible break above that level." That's been his target at the beginning of this rally and he sees "no reason to alter it." He adds, "The sentiment numbers just do not support a big

Ed Yardeni

Inflation: From Pitbull To Poodle?

Jan 27, 2023 2 min read paid

Inflation continues to moderate. In early 2022, we predicted that the headline PCED inflation rate would decline from 6%-7% during H1-2022 to 4%-5% during H2-2022 to 3%-4% in 2023. So far, so good (chart). It fell from a peak of 7% during June of last year to 5% by the end of the year.

Ed Yardeni

Q4 GDP Report Was Weak & Inflation Moderated

Jan 26, 2023 2 min read

The headlines in the financial press today suggested that Q4's real GDP was strong. On closer inspection, it was relatively weak and consistent with our view that the economy has been in a "rolling recession" since early last year when the Fed started to tighten monetary policy. Real GDP rose 2.9% (saar) following 3.2% during Q3 (chart). However, real final sales of domestic product

Ed Yardeni

How's Business In The US & Europe?

Jan 25, 2023 1 min read paid

We predict that global economic growth will improve this year. Until recently that was a contrary view since it was widely expected that the US, Europe, and China would fall into recessions this year. Now there is growing optimism about the outlook for Europe and China. The consensus outlook for the US remains relatively pessimistic.

Ed Yardeni

Why Is Gold Shining Again?

Jan 24, 2023 1 min read

Gold is a commodity priced in dollars. Like other commodities priced in dollars, the gold price is inversely correlated with the trade-weighted dollar (chart). The former has been rebounding since late last year as the dollar has been weakening on expectations that the Fed is almost done raising interest rates. The price of gold tends to track the underlying trend in commodity prices (chart). So its recent rebound suggests that

Ed Yardeni

Less Inflation & Growth In Three Regional Surveys

Jan 24, 2023 1 min read paid

We now have three business surveys for January conducted by the NY, Philly, and Richmond Fed district banks. Collectively, they are showing less economic growth and lower inflation. The average of their general business indexes dropped further into negative territory this month, suggesting that the M-PMI also fell further below 50.0 this month (chart).

Ed Yardeni

Good Breadth

Jan 23, 2023 2 min read paid

One of the best market timers we know is Joe Feshbach. We were colleagues at Prudential-Bache Securities during the 1980s. I’ve been summarizing his views on a weekly basis since the beginning of last year. Here are his latest thoughts he shared with me, this past weekend: “The good news is the market got bumpy as predicted, and it lasted a whole two days. The chart I’ve been

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/23/23

Jan 23, 2023 1 min read

Brace yourself for December’s Leading Economic Indicators and Coincident Economic Indicators coming out today. They are likely to trigger another recession alarm. But we still see greater odds of a soft landing (60%) than a hard one (40%). Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. What can the LEI

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 23-27

Jan 22, 2023 2 min read paid

The Federal Open Mouth Committee is giving us a break. Their blackout period started on Saturday. We won't hear from them again until February 1 at 2:30 p.m. That's when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a presser following the latest FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, corporate managements will have a lot to say during their current earnings reporting season. This week is packed with potentially

Ed Yardeni

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