Public Rolling Inflation & Remarkable Reversal Day Oct 13, 2022 2 min read Today's reversal in stock and bond prices from down big to up big, following the release of September's hotter than expected CPI report, has been quite remarkable. It's head spinning action. The day isn't over, but shorting the markets on bad inflation news just turned a bit more risky. We've been making the case that the US economy has been Ed Yardeni
Public BBR Down to 0.57 Oct 12, 2022 1 min read So far, widespread bearishness hasn't worked as a contrary bullish signal. Readings below 1.0 in the Bull-Bear Ratio (BBR) have often marked the bottoms of corrections (charts below). But during bear markets, such readings can persist. In the current bear market, contrarians have been up against the old adage: "Don't fight the Fed." The BBR sank further below 1.00 this week, dropping Ed Yardeni
Paid Labor Shortages Depressing Small Business Owners Oct 11, 2022 2 min read paid Today, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its September survey of small business owners. They are about as depressed as they have ever been. That’s not because their sales are terrible. Rather, they can’t find enough workers to expand their businesses. So they’ve had to raise both the wages they pay and the prices they charge. However, September’s survey suggested that inflationary pressures are Ed Yardeni
Paid Consumers Are Still Consuming Oct 11, 2022 1 min read paid So far, consumers haven’t read the recession memo. They are spending freely, according to MasterCard SpendingPulse, which found that retail sales grew by double digits, both online and offline, in September 2022. Excluding autos, off-line retail sales increased 11% y/y, and e-commerce sales rose 10.7% y/y. (The data are based on in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment and are not adjusted for Ed Yardeni
Public Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/10/22 Oct 10, 2022 1 min read The financial markets have been laser focused on inflation news this year, and are bracing for the next couple of days’ releases. Thursday’s CPI report for September is bound to move the markets, and tomorrow should bring a sneak peek of what it holds in store via the PPI release, specifically its personal consumption expenditures index. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid Ed Yardeni
Paid Supply Chain Problems Are Abating Oct 9, 2022 1 min read paid Supply-chain bottlenecks are easing. The parts you’ve been waiting for should arrive shortly. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York compiles a monthly Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) (chart below).It shows that global supply chain pressures decreased in September, marking a fifth consecutive month of easing. The September decline was quite broad-based. The GSCPI’s ytd movements suggest that global supply chain pressures are beginning to fall Ed Yardeni
Public The Economic Week Ahead, October 10-14 Oct 8, 2022 1 min read Monday is Columbus Day and the bond market will be closed. But stock investors can start the week worrying about September's PPI (Wed.) and CPI (Thu.). Both should confirm that they peaked earlier this year, but the moderation in inflation in both may not be enough to stop the Fed from concluding that more rate hikes are needed to subdue inflationary pressures. The PPI may show more moderation Ed Yardeni
Paid Good News Bears Oct 7, 2022 1 min read paid The good news is that the S&P 500 rose 1.5% this past week. The bad news is that it gave back almost all of the rally that occurred during the first two days of the week and is only 1.5% above the bear market's low of last Friday. This week showed that bad (good) economic news is good (bad) for the stock market. Monday Ed Yardeni
Public The Fed Is Too Hawkish Oct 6, 2022 2 min read Stock prices were beat down today by three downbeat and hawkish Fed officials (Fed Governor Lisa Cook, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic). They all repeated the Fed's party line: Inflation is too high and the Fed must continue to raise interest rates to bring it down. They reiterated what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his September 21 presser. He mentioned the Ed Yardeni
Paid Bull/Bear Ratio Back Down to 0.61 Oct 5, 2022 1 min read paid (1) The BBR dropped for the third week in a row to 0.61--the lowest since the June 21 week’s 0.60 (chart below). (2) Bullish sentiment held steady at 25.4% this week (the fewest bulls since early 2016) after falling the prior two weeks from 32.4%. Ed Yardeni
Public No Recession In Services Oct 5, 2022 1 min read Following today's release of September's nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (NM-PMI), the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised Q3's growth rate from 2.3% (saar) to 2.7%. Consumer spending and real-gross private domestic investment were revised higher from 0.7% to 1.1% and from -4.1% to -3.6%. The next recession might be the most widely anticipated recession that doesn& Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: The Valuation Question Oct 5, 2022 4 min read paid This is an excerpt from our Oct 4 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. The air continued to come out of valuation multiples last week, as inflation remains persistent and interest rates remain elevated. There’s an inverse correlation between the S&P 500’s P/E and the Ed Yardeni