Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Channels Former-Fed Chair Paul Volcker

Sep 26, 2022 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Aug 30 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. It seems that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently read former Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s autobiography, Keeping At It (2018). Amazon’s summary states: “As chairman of the Federal Reserve (1979-1987), Paul Volcker slayed the inflation

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, September 26-30

Sep 25, 2022 1 min read

The blackout period is over for the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee. This week, we can expect that many of the Fed's talking heads will repeat the hawkish remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his presser last Wednesday, i.e., monetary policy needs to be more restrictive to bring down inflation. The week ahead is also jam packed with economic indicators: (1) Consumers &

Ed Yardeni

Another Awful Risk-Off Week

Sep 24, 2022 1 min read paid

The bad news for the stock market this past week actually started on September 16 in the morning after FedEx delivered a terrible preannouncement about the current quarter. The package delivery giant said in a statement the night before that it expects Q1 earnings, excluding some items, to be $3.44 per share, or roughly 33% below the average analyst estimate of $5.10. In addition, FedEx withdrew its earnings

Ed Yardeni

TINA-TAR: There Is No Alternative To A Recession?

Sep 23, 2022 2 min read

The financial markets seem to have concluded that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has decided to go Volcker on us. During 1979-1981, then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker let interest rates soar to levels that caused a recession. He did so to bring inflation down (charts below). During his press conference on Wednesday, Powell unambiguously reiterated the hawkish message of his Jackson Hole speech on August 26. In other words, he strongly suggested

Ed Yardeni

Leading To A Recession?

Sep 22, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Fed Stays On Tightening Course

Sep 21, 2022 2 min read

The Fed lifted the federal funds rate range by 75bps to 3.00%-3.25%. Stocks sold off as Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated during his presser today the main points he made in his hawkish speech at Jackson Hole in late August. He stressed that monetary policy may have to be restrictive for a while to bring inflation down, and that the process may be painful. There wasn'

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: BBR Back Under 1.00

Sep 21, 2022 1 min read paid

Given the recent action in the stock market, it's not surprising to see that the Bull/Bear Ratio compiled by our friends at Investors Intelligence dropped to 0.96 during the September 20 week from 1.15 the previous week (chart below). In the past, readings of 1.00 or less have proven to be contrarian signals of good times to buy for long-term investors.

Ed Yardeni

Housing Already Hard Hit By Fed Tightening

Sep 20, 2022 1 min read

Fed officials have been saying that they are aiming to raise the federal funds rate from an accommodative level to a restrictive one to bring inflation down. In their latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC on June 15, they indicated that they believe that the neutral federal funds rate is 2.50%, which is the upper end of the current target range. Odds are that it

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/19/22

Sep 20, 2022 1 min read

Fed Chair Powell seems to be channeling his 1970s predecessor Paul Volcker—who masterfully tamed high inflation amid a severe recession. Today, we assess how August’s CPI shocker may alter the FOMC’s economic projections and policy decisions. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. We expect Wednesday’s

Ed Yardeni

Money Flooding Into US From Overseas

Sep 19, 2022 1 min read

Money from overseas is pouring into the US capital markets, which foreign investors regard as a haven in a world that’s increasingly unsafe for them. Their mantra is “TINAC: There is no alternative country!” The US Treasury International Capital System (TICS) reported on Friday that private net capital inflows totaled $1.5 trillion over the past 12 months through July, near recent record inflows (chart below). Over this same

Ed Yardeni

Major Housing Crash?

Sep 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Billionaire real estate investor Barry Sternlicht said he believes the economy is "braking hard" and that the continuation of rate hikes is likely to cause a "major crash" in housing. The chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital Group said so in a CNBC interview on Thursday. “If the Fed keeps this up they are going to have a serious recession and people will lose their jobs.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: Sept. 19-23

Sep 18, 2022 1 min read

It's a light week for economic releases in the US. The focus will be on the Fed. Wednesday will be action packed with the FOMC's latest policy statement and Summary of Economic Projections both out at 2:00 pm and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's presser at 2:30 pm. Powell is likely to be as hawkish as he was during his August 26 speech

Ed Yardeni

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