Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Risk Off

Aug 21, 2022 1 min read

The stock market is overbought. Since June 16, the S&P 500 is up 15% including its 1.2% decline last week back to 4228, failing to rise above its 200-day moving average, which was 4306 on Friday. Over the same period, the Nasdaq is up 19% after giving back 2% last week. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up 41bps from a recent low of 2.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead (August 22-26)

Aug 21, 2022 1 min read

The big event of the coming week will occur on Friday at 10:00 am EDT, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address the annual global central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Nothing much has changed since his press conference on July 27 other than that the S&P 500 is 7.8% higher. So he is likely to signal another rate hike in late September aimed at

Ed Yardeni

Buffett Is Bullish While His Ratio Is Bearish

Aug 20, 2022 1 min read paid

Yesterday, the Motley Fool reported that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway was on a buying spree during the recent bear market. Apparently, the Oracle of Omaha isn't concerned that his famous Buffett Ratio remains in bearish territory. In a December 2001 Fortune article, Buffett observed that when the ratio of the value of all stocks traded in the US to nominal GNP exceeds 200%, its best to

Ed Yardeni

CFO Put Replaces Fed Put

Aug 19, 2022 1 min read

The Fed Put may be kaput, but the CFO Put is still going gut, as they say in German. Starting in September, the Fed intends to shrink its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. During the first half of 2022, the Fed has remained hawkish, and resisted caving in to the stock market's tightening tantrum. However, Corporate America continues to pour some of its massive cash flow

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Young Bull Or Old Bear?

Aug 18, 2022 2 min read paid

There is a fierce debate going on between the stock market’s bulls and bears. The question under consideration is whether the rally since June 16 is a new bull market or just a rally in the bear market that started on January 3? Over this period, the S&P 500 fell 23.6% from its record high of 4796 to 3666.

Ed Yardeni

NY & Philly Surveys: Weakening Business & Prices

Aug 18, 2022 1 min read

We now have two of the five regional business surveys conducted during August by the Federal Reserve district banks of NY and Philly: (1) NY was very weak, while Philly offset some of that weakness. The average of the two composites of business activity fell in August to -12.6, the lowest reading since the 2020 rebound from the lockdown recession. Collectively they suggest that August's M-PMI might

Ed Yardeni

Bull/Bear Ratio Rebounding

Aug 17, 2022 1 min read paid

Pessimism sells newspapers better than optimism. Pessimism also creates buying opportunities for optimists. Investors are no longer as bearish as they were eight weeks ago. From a contrarian perspective, as we’ve seen just recently, extreme pessimism tends to be bullish, unless the world really does come to an end, in which case, who cares? Here’s a quick update on Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR):

Ed Yardeni

TINAC & TICS Update

Aug 16, 2022 1 min read

June's Treasury International Capital System (TICS) was released on Monday. The TICS data tend to confirm our TINAC thesis, i.e., there is no alternative country: the US is a safe haven for global investors confronted with a very stormy global investment climate. Consider the following: (1) On a 12-month basis through June, the US had private net capital inflows of $1.5 trillion (chart below). It'

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Messages From Manufacturing & Housing

Aug 16, 2022 1 min read paid

July was a good month for manufacturing and a bad one for the housing industry. Industrial production, which is one of the four components of the Index of Coincident Indicators, rose 0.6% m/m to a new record high during July (chart). Housing starts tumbled during the month. Building permits, which is one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, also fell during July. There'

Ed Yardeni

Fed's NY Business Survey Takes A Dive In August

Aug 15, 2022 1 min read

The charts below show that business activity plunged during August, according to the monthly survey of the Fed's NY district. It's a shocker. Here are the details: "Business activity declined sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index plummeted forty-two points to -31.3. New orders and shipments plunged, and

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead (August 15-19, 2022)

Aug 14, 2022 2 min read paid

In the coming week, we will likely get more evidence of the US housing recession. However, the economic indicators and business surveys released this week should show that the rest of the economy is growing. July's FOMC minutes released on Wednesday might signal peak Fed hawkishness. Here’s more: (1) Housing. July’s housing starts (Tuesday) will likely show weakening single-family, but solid multi-family starts. July's

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Aug 14, 2022 2 min read

The stock market has been rallying since June 16 on mounting expectations that the most widely expected recession of all times might be a no-show and that inflation is peaking. July's strong payroll employment report and peakish CPI and PPI readings suggest that the cat is out of the bag. That's confirmed by several technical indicators: (1) Breadth. On Friday, over 90% of the S&

Ed Yardeni

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