Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Vigilantes On The Warpath

Mar 10, 2025 3 min read paid

The Stock Market Vigilantes have spoken. They don't like tariffs, and they don't like mass firings of federal workers. That's because they don't like stagflation, and they fear that Trump 2.0's focus on these measures could cause a recession with higher inflation. They really didn't like President Donald Trump's message on Sunday during an interview

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Investing Without A Trump Or Powell Put

Mar 9, 2025 3 min read

Anything is possible in Trump World. We can't rule out the possibility that a bear market started on February 20, the day after the S&P 500 rose to a record high (chart). It could be like the "flash crashes" that occurred during 1962 and 1987. It could happen quickly and reverse just as quickly. So the selloff could provide buying opportunities, especially in overvalued

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 10-14

Mar 9, 2025 3 min read paid

After several weeks of a growth scare, the attention this week will shift back to inflation. The new scare could be stagflation, which is the risk to our more upbeat economic outlook. CPI inflation has been reaccelerating since last fall when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100bps (chart). Businesses may have raised prices in February in anticipation of tariffs. If CPI services inflation remains sticky at January'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Trump Turmoil 2.0 Raises Odds Of A Recession

Mar 8, 2025 6 min read

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, March 5, 2025. Strategy I: Trump Turmoil 2.0. We haven’t had to change our subjective probabilities for our three alternative economic scenarios for quite some time. We are doing so today and may have to do so more frequently in coming months or even coming weeks in reaction to the volatile nature of policymaking under President Donald

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Layoffs Rising According To Challenger Report. Is That Alarming?

Mar 6, 2025 2 min read paid

We raised the odds of a recession on March 4 from 20% to 35%. Today's Challenger Report showed an alarming jump in February's announced job layoffs to 172,017, the highest since July 2020 (chart). On the other hand, initial unemployment claims remained low through the February 28 week. So we aren't raising our odds of a recession again, for now. A third of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

IN 10 CHARTS: Moving Markets

Mar 5, 2025 3 min read

(1) Will S&P 500 indexes find support at their 200-day moving averages? We think so. Sentiment is quite bearish and the next batch of economic indicators should confirm the economy is growing. (2) Will the Nasdaq remain in its bullish channel? We expect to see some dip-buying following the rapid selloff. (3) Will LargeCaps continue to outperform SMidCaps? Trump Turmoil 2.0 is weighing more on the latter

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Are Tariffs Inflationary Or Deflationary? Are They Really ‘A Beautiful Thing?’

Mar 5, 2025 3 min read paid

Until recently, the message from the bond market has been that tariffs are deflationary because they depress global economic activity. As Warren Buffett recently observed, they are a tax that consumers, importers, and/or exporters pay. It is widely presumed that tariff increases have a transitory, one-shot, price-rising impact. Indeed, on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the Chinese "will eat any tariffs that go on."

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/5/25

Mar 5, 2025 1 min read paid

Testing The Resilience Of The US Economy We continue to bet on the resilience of the American economy. Yes, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model lowered its Q1 GDP forecast significantly on Friday. The volatile model swung in response to January’s surge in imported goods ahead of Trump’s tariffs. In addition, consumer spending was depressed by a colder-than-usual January, but consumer spending and the model are bound to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Are Odds Of A Bear Market Rising? Will Earnings Save The Day?

Mar 4, 2025 3 min read paid

We've been betting on the resilience of the US economy and earnings to keep the bull market going. Our thesis has been challenged by a rash of weak economic indicators for January recently. We think that they will be stronger in February and March, as we've discussed in recent days. However, Trump's tariffs imposed today on Canada, China, and Mexico could have stagflationary consequences

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Getting Dizzy? Buy Gold.

Mar 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices are falling because Trump Turmoil 2.0 is making investors dizzy. Just today, President Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs will be imposed on Canada and Mexico tomorrow. He also said that the US will impose tariffs on agricultural products on April 2. The President ordered a pause on all US military aid to Ukraine, three days after he kicked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky out of the White

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Negative GDP Math Doesn't Add Up

Mar 3, 2025 5 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, March 3, 2025. The latest economic indicators aren’t supporting our resilient-economy thesis. Nevertheless, we are sticking with it for now. Consider the following: (1) Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now & CESI. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model lowered the estimated growth rate of Q1’s real GDP from 2.5% (q/q, saar) to -1.5% on

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 3–7

Mar 2, 2025 3 min read

February's batch of economic indicators for January was mostly downbeat, the sort of numbers suggestive of a severe economic slowdown. They caused a few economists to raise their odds of a recession but not us. Indeed, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell to -16.5, the weakest since the summer of 2024 (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.24% on Friday from a peak of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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