Ed Yardeni

Powell Says Economy Is Normalizing & September Rate Cut Is On The Table

Jul 31, 2024 3 min read paid

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged between 5.25%-5.50% at today's meeting, as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did signal that a 25bps rate cut is highly likely at the September meeting now that the labor market is "normalizing" and inflation is cooling. The 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields slid by about 6 basis points during

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/31/24

Jul 31, 2024 1 min read paid

If economic performance were an Olympic sport, America would sweep up gold medals. The US economy hit record-high real GDP, real consumer spending, and real consumption per household (a barometer for standards of living) last quarter. It has achieved the feat of “immaculate disinflation”—falling inflation without recessionary fallout—as PCED inflation is fast approaching the Fed’s 2.0% target. Real capital spending by businesses also stood at a

Ed Yardeni

Rotating Market Betting On Pivoting Powell

Jul 30, 2024 3 min read paid

This is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to say at his presser tomorrow: "The economy has been stronger than we expected and the labor market remains solid. Inflation is getting closer to our 2.0% target, but it isn't there yet. We didn't cut the federal funds rate at this meeting of the FOMC, but we might do so at the September 17-18

Ed Yardeni

Big Mac Confirms Weak Global Economy Is Facing More Deflation

Jul 29, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumers around the world have cut back on buying Big Macs at McDonald's. The company reported its first worldwide sales decline in 13 quarters today. The company's CEO said, "Consumer sentiment in most of our major markets remains low." Yet, the stock price rose nearly 4% today after the company said that its $5 meal deal is a big hit and will be extended.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 29-Aug 2

Jul 28, 2024 2 min read paid

The week ahead is packed with economic indicators, but all eyes will be on the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday and payroll employment on Friday. We don't expect the Fed will alter the stance of monetary policy at the July meeting, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell could signal that a September cut to the federal funds rate (FFR) is likely. That's because as

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Burning Or Churning?

Jul 28, 2024 3 min read

Geopolitical risk increased on Saturday after a rocket strike from Lebanon killed 12 people in Israel's Golan Heights. Israel retaliated with a strike on Hezbollah weapons caches and infrastructure on Sunday. This is all stoking fear of a wider war in the Middle East. So far, the region's turmoil since October 7, 2023 (when Hamas terrorists attacked and massacred Israelis) hasn't weighed on the

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Fed Faces Some Challenges

Jul 28, 2024 3 min read paid

The financial markets and most economists seem to agree that the Fed’s next move will be to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps following the September 17-18 meeting of the FOMC. However, there is still a debate about whether restrictive monetary policy operates with a “long and variable” lag, thus requiring more rate cuts this year to avert a recession later this year or in 2025. If

Ed Yardeni

Lots of Moving Parts

Jul 25, 2024 3 min read paid

The stock market started to rotate out of LargeCaps and into SMidCaps after June's CPI was released on July 11 (chart). It showed lower-than-expected inflation, which increased the odds that the Fed would start cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) in September and triggered the rotation because small companies tend to depend more on floating-rate debt than large ones. Easier monetary policy would also reduce the likelihood of

Ed Yardeni

Valuation-Led Selloff Led by Magnificent-7

Jul 24, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's stock market rout was led by the Magnificent-7. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) was down 6.1% today, and down 8.3% since the S&P 500 peaked at a record high during July 16 (chart). The S&P 500 is down 4.2% since then to 5427.13, just below its 50-day moving average (chart).

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/24/24

Jul 24, 2024 1 min read paid

Characterizing the investing backdrop at this juncture are big unknowns about the near-term future, such as which administration will be controlling fiscal policy six months from now and what monetary policy will be at that time. So it’s no wonder that multiple consensus viewpoints seem to be moving financial markets this way and that. Today, Dr. Ed and Eric Wallerstein examine what’s been driving the commodities, fixed income,

Ed Yardeni

Dow Theory Is So Yesterday

Jul 23, 2024 2 min read paid

The DJIA is down 2.1% from its record high of 41,198 reached last Wednesday (chart). The DJTA was down 1.6% today, remaining below its record high in early 2022. According to Dow Theory, the DJTA needs to break out to a record high to confirm the DJIA's rise to this point and support further advances. The theory is that a sustainable bull market in stocks

Ed Yardeni

An Earnings-Driven Bull Market

Jul 22, 2024 3 min read paid

Yesterday, we suggested that the stock market selloff since the July 16 record high in the S&P 500 might not last very long. So we were pleased by today's broad rally in the S&P 500 (1.1%), Nasdaq (1.6%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), and the MAGS (2.4%). We expect that a solid print in Q2's real GDP on Thursday and

Ed Yardeni

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