Ed Yardeni

Triple Whammy

Apr 25, 2024 2 min read paid

Today started out with a triple whammy for the stock market. Meta took it on the chin, the GDP report was stagflationary, and the bond yield rose to a five-month high: (1) Meta. Yesterday afternoon after the stock market close, Mark Zuckerberg, Meta's CEO, took some air out of the AI bubble by saying his company would have to spend a fortune to make this technology work and

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/25/24

Apr 25, 2024 1 min read paid

Today, we rant about rent and the housing market. Like a fun house mirror without the fun, several housing-related forces are distorting economic activity. There’s the distortive way rent inflation is measured in the headline CPI; if the BLS’s new All Tenant Rent index were used instead, the Fed would be fighting too-low inflation! … There are the forces messing with supply and demand, depressing the supply of homes

Ed Yardeni

Long Face

Apr 24, 2024 2 min read paid

A horse walks into a bar. Bartender asks, "Why the long face?" In the stock market, there are more long faces recently: (1) The Investor Intelligence Bull-Bear Ratio fell for the third week to 2.15 this week after climbing to 4.43 three weeks ago—which was the highest reading since February 5, 2018 (chart). (2) Turning to the AAII Sentiment survey (as of April 18), pessimism

Ed Yardeni

Copper, Oil & China

Apr 23, 2024 2 min read paid

Is the global economy suddenly taking off? It seems that way given the sudden vertical ascent of several metals prices, particularly those of copper, aluminum, tin, and zinc. On the other hand, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has slipped recently, suggesting that its recent advance had more to do with a rising geopolitical risk premium than a resurgence of global growth (chart). Our thesis is that

Ed Yardeni

The Blob

Apr 22, 2024 2 min read

The US federal deficit reminds us of the 1958 science fiction horror classic, "The Blob." It stars none-other than Steve McQueen, in his first leading role. The blob is an amoeba-like alien creature that crashes to Earth from outer space and feeds on humans, getting bigger and bigger with every bite. The federal deficit is getting bigger and bigger devouring more and more funds in the capital markets

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Next Stop At 200-Day Moving Average?

Apr 21, 2024 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 is now down 5.5% from its March 28 record high. It dropped below its 50-day moving average (dma) last week (chart). Where might it find some technical support? It might do so around 4800, which would match the peak just before the previous bear market and put the index unchanged for the year so far. Below that level is the 200-dma, currently around 4700,

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 21 - 26

Apr 21, 2024 2 min read paid

This will be a big week for S&P 500 earnings. Fed officials are in their blackout period until Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at his May 1 press conference following the next meeting of the "Federal Open Mouth Committee." On the economic front, the big fireworks will occur at the end of the week: (1) Q1's real GDP (Thu) should show an increase of

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Inflation: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

Apr 20, 2024 7 min read paid

Inflation I: The Good Obviously, the outlook for inflation matters greatly to determining Fed policymaking and the course of the economy. Let’s have a closer look at the latest inflation data to identify the good, the bad, and the ugly: (1) CPI excluding shelter. Debbie and I are encouraged to see that the headline and core CPI inflation rates excluding shelter were only 2.3% y/y (versus 3.

Ed Yardeni

Monetary Policy Is In A 'Good Place'

Apr 18, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Tanks A Lot

Apr 17, 2024 2 min read paid

The war premium in the crude oil market fell again today. Fears of a significant disruption to global oil production continued to dissipate this week. That's even though Israel has threatened to attack Iran in response to the aerial attack launched by Iran against Israel on Saturday. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil peaked recently at $91.17 0n April 5 (chart). It was down

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/17/24

Apr 17, 2024 1 min read paid

As the war in the Middle East escalates, it could send the oil price flying toward $100 per barrel and wipe out our expectations of continued moderation in US inflation (notwithstanding March’s anomalous CPI). … Barring that ugly scenario, our inflation outlook is good, with continued moderation to the Fed’s 2.0% target—which, notably, we wouldn’t view as justifying Fed easing this year. … But there are flies

Ed Yardeni

Hawks Fly Higher For Longer Than Doves

Apr 16, 2024 2 min read paid

It's official: Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed today that he and his colleagues aren't convinced that inflation is coming down fast enough to consider cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) any time soon: "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence," Powell said at a moderated

Ed Yardeni

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