Ed Yardeni

Bonds Weighing On Stocks

May 29, 2024 2 min read paid

Yesterday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that he wants to see "many more months of positive inflation data" before he's ready to cut rates. He also didn't rule out a hike. Fixed-income investors are starting to realize that this is the new party line from the Fed. Earlier this year, we argued that there was no reason for the Fed to rush

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/29/24

May 29, 2024 1 min read paid

Geopolitical events can shake up the stock market, sometimes providing buying opportunities. The current geopolitical landscape is unsettled and unsettling, with potentially seismic ramifications on several fronts and lots of uncertainties: Is Putin’s call for negotiations with Ukraine a nonstarter? Is it even real? Are US efforts at brokering peace in the Middle East progressing toward that end or is that notion wishful thinking? Does the heightened pitch of

Ed Yardeni

Sunny Economy, Gloomy Dispositions

May 28, 2024 2 min read paid

Inflation is the number one economic concern among consumers today. It's also moderated significantly since the summer of 2022; the prices of durable goods are even deflating a bit. The labor market remains strong, boosting consumer spending. Stocks are at all-time highs. Yet, according to a recently released Fed survey, only 22% of Americans think the US economy is in good or excellent shape, down from 50% before

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Magnificent One?

May 27, 2024 2 min read paid

Stock market pundits have been bemoaning the narrowness of the current bull market that started on October 12, 2022. It has been led by the Magnificent-7. Now the pundits are fretting that it is being led by just Nvidia, which is up 115.0% ytd versus 11.2% for the S&P 500 (chart). It is also significantly outperforming the Magnificent-6 so far this year. Nvidia is the only

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 28 - 31

May 27, 2024 3 min read

The economic indicators released during the shortened week ahead should confirm that economic growth remains solid and that inflation is continuing to moderate. Here's what we're watching this week: (1) PCED. The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model shows headline and core PCED rose 2.68% and 2.74% y/y (0.27% and 0.23% m/m) last month (chart). That would be the lowest

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Dow 40,000 And Counting

May 24, 2024 4 min read paid

The Baby Boomers have been heavily influenced by a couple of Spocks—Dr. Benjamin Spock and Spock of Star Trek, played by Leonard Nimoy. Dr. Spock was a pediatrician who wrote Baby and Child Care (1946). It became the unofficial bible of child rearing as millions of mothers read it and raised their Baby Boom children according to the book’s advice. In the 1960s and 1970s, conservatives blamed Dr.

Ed Yardeni

Will Nvidia Trump The Fed?

May 23, 2024 2 min read paid

Yesterday's FOMC minutes confirmed that Fed officials are in no rush to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) and some are considering the possibility that they might have to raise it if inflation stalls above the Fed's 2.0% target. The 2-year Treasury yield is back up to 4.94% implying one 25bps rate cut over the next 12 months. So stocks sold off on fears

Ed Yardeni

Dow 60,000: Here We Come

May 22, 2024 3 min read

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 for the first time on Friday, May 17 (chart). Today it is back down slightly below this level. We hope the title of this QT doesn't turn out to be a jinx, but we are still aiming for Dow 60,000 by 2030 in our Roaring 2020s scenario. Along the way, there could be corrections and even another bear

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/22/24

May 22, 2024 1 min read paid

Boomer-led households’ collective net worth has skyrocketed 19-fold since 1990. As the generation has lived long and prospered, so has the stock market (rising 40-fold over their adulthood) and the US economy (with nominal GDP up eightfold since 1982). Looking ahead, our Roaring 2020s scenario assumes faster-than-average growth for S&P 500 earnings, GDP, and productivity. Faster productivity growth should depress unit labor costs and inflation in a process

Ed Yardeni

Why Are LargeCaps Doing Better Than SMidCaps?

May 21, 2024 2 min read paid

Why has the S&P 500 LargeCaps stock price index been more expensive than the indexes for the S&P 400 MidCaps and S&P 600 SmallCaps since the pandemic (chart)? From around 2005 until about 2019, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 had mostly been below the forward P/Es of the SMidCaps (chart). The last time that LargeCaps sported higher P/

Ed Yardeni

Anatomy Of The Bond Yield

May 20, 2024 2 min read paid

We expect that the 10-year US Treasury bond yield will remain rangebound between 4.00% and 5.00% for the foreseeable future. We expect to see it more often below 4.50% (the mid-point of the range) than above it. This is consistent with our view that interest rates have normalized: They are back to where they were prior to the "Great Abnormal" period from the Great Financial

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: From Dow 40,000 To Infinity & Beyond

May 19, 2024 3 min read

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 on Friday for the first time. It's on track to rise 50% to 60,000 by 2030, in our opinion (chart). The S&P 500 should rise by as much to 8000. That target could be achieved with a forward P/E of 20 and forward earnings at $400 per share, up 60% from an estimated $250 per

Ed Yardeni

Page 62 of 140