Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bull Market Gets No Respect

Feb 25, 2024 2 min read paid

Like comedian Rodney Dangerfield, the S&P 500 bull market gets no respect. Dangerfield often bemoaned that he got no respect. His jokes included, "I went to a freak show and they let me in for nothing." The S&P 500 is up 42.3% since the start of the bull market on October 12, 2022, yet its detractors continue to observe that it has been

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: February 26 - March 1

Feb 25, 2024 2 min read paid

The economic week ahead is jampacked with important economic indicators. The ones for January–New Home Sales (Mon), Durable Goods (Tue), and Personal Income (Thu)–were probably weakened by the month's bad weather. The February indicators should show some rebound in economic activity. February's Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City Fed regional business surveys will be out this week. They should confirm the weather-related rebounds in economic

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Artificial Intelligence Isn't Intelligent

Feb 23, 2024 3 min read paid

I. Is AI Ready for Primetime? The Roaring 2020s started in the stock market on November 30, 2022. That’s when OpenAI launched ChatGPT. I signed up for the $20 per month version of this program that is driven by artificial intelligence (AI). It can write reports and carry on a conversation. I gave it a whirl to see if it might write our Morning Briefings or our shorter QuickTakes.

Ed Yardeni

Higher For Longer

Feb 22, 2024 2 min read paid

We've been in the higher-for-longer camp regarding the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) since the end of last year. That outlook was confirmed by the release of January's FOMC minutes yesterday and today's speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. The Fed wants to see more progress bringing inflation down and is in no rush to ease given the strength of the

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/21/24

Feb 21, 2024 1 min read paid

Today, we analyze the analysts, noting that they tend be influenced by stock market meltups—thus fueling the meltups—and during meltups tend to raise their long-term earnings growth rates unrealistically high. Nevertheless, we explain why we follow their forward earnings, revenues, and profit margin projections closely. We also give our projections for the S&P 500 companies’ operating earnings, revenues, profit margins, as well as the index’s

Ed Yardeni

Nvidia For Fun & Profit

Feb 21, 2024 2 min read paid

As a result of the AI gold rush, billions of dollars are being spent on Nvidia’s GPUs. They seem to be the only game in town. Huge investments in AI-related hardware and software are likely, eventually, to boost productivity significantly. That’s great for our Roaring 2020s scenario. We simply don’t know at this time how long “eventually” will turn out to be. The lack of numerous suppliers

Ed Yardeni

Leading Indicator Still Misleading

Feb 20, 2024 2 min read

January's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was down again by 0.4% (chart). It has been falling since December 2021. It was the 23rd straight monthly decline, just one month short of the record-long slump that began in April 2007 and ran through March 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis. January's Index of Coincident Economic indicators rose 0.2% to yet another record high, continuing

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Why Were Economists So Wrong?

Feb 19, 2024 7 min read paid

Why were so many economists and strategists so wrong in their predictions of a recession over the past two years? Now seems to be a good time to answer this question since there are lots of lessons to be learned from the widely held misconceptions of the past two years. Let’s review them: (1/10) Tight monetary policies always cause recessions. The Fed raised the federal funds rate (FFR)

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Investing Is For Teenagers

Feb 18, 2024 2 min read

Contrary indicator alert! On Sunday, the WSJ posted an article titled "These Teenagers Know More About Investing Than You Do: Custodial investment accounts for minors have surged in popularity." According to the article, the kids are all buying technology stocks: "Brokerage executives say that technology behemoths that are ubiquitous in the lives of teens are often some of the most widely held shares." You have been

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: Feb 20 - 23

Feb 17, 2024 2 min read paid

It's a slow, holiday-shortened week for economic data up ahead. It will start on Tuesday with January's Index of Leading Economic indicators (LEI) and Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI). Regarding the LEI, we are reminded of Bradley Cooper's song, "Maybe it's time to let the old ways die." The LEI peaked at a record high during December 2021, and

Ed Yardeni

Not-So-Hot PPI

Feb 16, 2024 2 min read paid

Tuesday's CPI and today's PPI for January were higher than expected. Thursday's retail sales and today's housing starts for last month were both weaker than expected. The new year is starting with hotter inflation and colder economic growth. Nevertheless, these hot flashes and chills should be temporary. In our opinion, inflation continues to moderate and the economy remains resilient. The latter forecast

Ed Yardeni

It Was Cold In January, But Spring Is Coming!

Feb 15, 2024 2 min read

Retail sales fell 0.8% m/m in January, much weaker than expected (chart). Leading the way down was a 4.1% drop in building materials & garden equipment & supplies. Following the release of January's employment report, we anticipated some weakness in retail sales because the 0.2% increase in payrolls was offset by an odd 0.6% drop in average weekly hours (chart). Also weak during

Ed Yardeni

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