Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Still Cooling

Sep 13, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's CPI report suggests that inflation is continuing to cool. That's not a new development so the financial markets barely reacted. Needless to say, if the report suggested that inflation wasn't moderating, both bond and stock prices would have tanked. We are expecting a weak retail sales report tomorrow, which should be greeted favorably by both. We attribute much of the decline in the

Ed Yardeni

Bond Prices Are Tuning Out Some Bad News For Now

Sep 12, 2023 2 min read paid

The good news this morning was that the bond yield held below 4.30% despite rising oil prices and a mixed August survey of small business owners conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Bond investors are patiently awaiting tomorrow's CPI. They might also have been calmed by a September 10 WSJ article suggesting that the FOMC isn't likely to raise the federal funds

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Fretting More About Credit & Less About Inflation

Sep 11, 2023 2 min read paid

Tech stocks seem to go up whenever the bond yield stops doing so. Leading tech stocks higher today was Tesla, which is actually in the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector. Morgan Stanley issued a very bullish report on the auto company's new "Dojo" supercomputer. It suggests that Tesla may also be a play on AI. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yield remained below 4.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Waiting For The Verdict

Sep 10, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 has been marking time recently around its 50-day moving average waiting for a verdict (chart). The jury is no longer debating whether the economy is falling into a recession. The issue has been resolved. The economy is growing. But now the debate is whether it is growing too strongly so that inflation stops moderating. Or will it slow down so that inflation can continue to

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 11-15

Sep 9, 2023 2 min read

This could be a big week for the stock and bond markets. There will be lots of market-moving inflation indicators: Inflation expectations (Mon), small business pricing intentions (Tue), CPI (Wed), PPI (Thu), and import & export prices (Fri). There will also be a couple of business cycle indicators that could move the markets: retail sales (Thu) and industrial production (Fri). On balance, we expect that the inflation stats will confirm

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/8/23

Sep 8, 2023 1 min read paid

What would it take for the Fed to abandon its hawkish stance? Three things, suggested Fed Chair Powell’s recent Jackson Hole speech: core PCED inflation dropping closer to 2% y/y, demand for labor dropping closer to the supply of it, and consumer spending cooling off a bit. All that can happen without a recession, as it has twice before in recent history, and the latest data on all

Ed Yardeni

Stormy September So Far

Sep 7, 2023 1 min read paid

Good news is bad news again. The stock and bond markets sold off yesterday following better-than-expected readings for August's NM-PMI. In addition, the prices-paid indexes for both the NM-PMI and M-PMI increased in August heightening fears that inflation may have stopped moderating (chart). We disagree since both remain well below last summer's peaks. Today, Q2's revised productivity and costs report showed that hourly compensation

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/6/23

Sep 6, 2023 1 min read paid

Is the surprising Q3 strength in the economy sustainable? Clues in the latest data releases suggest not, and our forecast calls for a renewed soft landing. A stronger-for-longer economy wouldn’t jibe with the Fed’s higher-for-longer interest-rate stance. ... But the economic outlook hinges much on what consumers do next. We don’t see them slamming on the spending brakes, as the hard-landers predict will happen when excess savings are

Ed Yardeni

What Could Go Wrong In September?

Sep 5, 2023 3 min read paid

On Sunday, we observed that September is a good month for picking apples. It is widely viewed as a rotten month for stocks, which has been true during 55% of Septembers since 1928. But those selloffs have often turned out to be good opportunities to pick fallen stocks just in time for a yearend Santa Claus rally. The S&P 500 fell today back towards its 50-day moving average

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: September Isn't Always A Bad Month For Stocks

Sep 3, 2023 2 min read

September is the Rodney Dangerfield of the 12 months; it gets no respect because it has been the worst month for stocks on average since 1928 (chart). However, it has been up 45% of the time since then with a solid average gain of 3.2%. Even if the market is down this month, September is a good month for picking apples and it could be a good month for

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 5-8

Sep 2, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a short week ahead and a light one for economic releases. We expect that the financial markets will start to focus on the following week when both the CPI and the federal deficit will be released for August on Wednesday, September 13. One week after that happens, the FOMC will decide whether to hike the federal funds rate or not. We think the Fed is done. We

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: S&P 500 Forward Earnings Remains On Recovery Road

Aug 31, 2023 4 min read paid

The stock market rallied from Friday through Wednesday despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The rally received a bullish jolt from July’s JOLTS report on Tuesday morning showing both fewer job openings and fewer quits than expected during the month. These are bullish developments, as we discuss further below, because they suggest that the labor market is “rebalancing,” with demand for labor

Ed Yardeni

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