Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Inflation: The 1970s Again?

Sep 18, 2023 6 min read paid

US Economy I: Raising Odds of a Recession a Tad On July 31, Debbie and I lowered our odds of a recession. We wrote: “Our script has played out as expected so far. The soft-landing scenario looks increasingly like a no-landing one. As a result, we are raising the odds of a no-landing scenario from 75% to 85% and lowering the odds of a hard-landing scenario from 25% to 15%

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: September Isn't Over Just Yet

Sep 17, 2023 2 min read

September is usually a nice month weather-wise. After the dog days of summer, the temperature starts to cool with occasional hot spells reminiscent of the summer. On the other hand, the month can be a rough one for stocks. The S&P 500 is down 1.3% mtd so far. That's not so bad. Then again, the month's worst performing sector is Information Technology, down

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 18-22

Sep 16, 2023 2 min read paid

The Dot Plot thickens! Other than another FOMC meeting, it's a slow week ahead for economic indicators. The committee's statement is widely expected to pass on another rate hike, but suggest that there could be another one at the November meeting. All eyes will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which is updated quarterly and includes the "Dot Plot," which shows the

Ed Yardeni

Action Packed Week

Sep 14, 2023 2 min read paid

It certainly has been an action-packed week so far, and there is still Friday to go. Today, the ECB raised its official interest rates by 25bps; the People’s Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio for most banks by 25 basis points; and, the price of oil continued to increase. Yesterday's headline CPI and today's headline PPI inflation rates for August were boosted by

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Still Cooling

Sep 13, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's CPI report suggests that inflation is continuing to cool. That's not a new development so the financial markets barely reacted. Needless to say, if the report suggested that inflation wasn't moderating, both bond and stock prices would have tanked. We are expecting a weak retail sales report tomorrow, which should be greeted favorably by both. We attribute much of the decline in the

Ed Yardeni

Bond Prices Are Tuning Out Some Bad News For Now

Sep 12, 2023 2 min read paid

The good news this morning was that the bond yield held below 4.30% despite rising oil prices and a mixed August survey of small business owners conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Bond investors are patiently awaiting tomorrow's CPI. They might also have been calmed by a September 10 WSJ article suggesting that the FOMC isn't likely to raise the federal funds

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Fretting More About Credit & Less About Inflation

Sep 11, 2023 2 min read paid

Tech stocks seem to go up whenever the bond yield stops doing so. Leading tech stocks higher today was Tesla, which is actually in the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector. Morgan Stanley issued a very bullish report on the auto company's new "Dojo" supercomputer. It suggests that Tesla may also be a play on AI. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yield remained below 4.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Waiting For The Verdict

Sep 10, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 has been marking time recently around its 50-day moving average waiting for a verdict (chart). The jury is no longer debating whether the economy is falling into a recession. The issue has been resolved. The economy is growing. But now the debate is whether it is growing too strongly so that inflation stops moderating. Or will it slow down so that inflation can continue to

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 11-15

Sep 9, 2023 2 min read

This could be a big week for the stock and bond markets. There will be lots of market-moving inflation indicators: Inflation expectations (Mon), small business pricing intentions (Tue), CPI (Wed), PPI (Thu), and import & export prices (Fri). There will also be a couple of business cycle indicators that could move the markets: retail sales (Thu) and industrial production (Fri). On balance, we expect that the inflation stats will confirm

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/8/23

Sep 8, 2023 1 min read paid

What would it take for the Fed to abandon its hawkish stance? Three things, suggested Fed Chair Powell’s recent Jackson Hole speech: core PCED inflation dropping closer to 2% y/y, demand for labor dropping closer to the supply of it, and consumer spending cooling off a bit. All that can happen without a recession, as it has twice before in recent history, and the latest data on all

Ed Yardeni

Stormy September So Far

Sep 7, 2023 1 min read paid

Good news is bad news again. The stock and bond markets sold off yesterday following better-than-expected readings for August's NM-PMI. In addition, the prices-paid indexes for both the NM-PMI and M-PMI increased in August heightening fears that inflation may have stopped moderating (chart). We disagree since both remain well below last summer's peaks. Today, Q2's revised productivity and costs report showed that hourly compensation

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/6/23

Sep 6, 2023 1 min read paid

Is the surprising Q3 strength in the economy sustainable? Clues in the latest data releases suggest not, and our forecast calls for a renewed soft landing. A stronger-for-longer economy wouldn’t jibe with the Fed’s higher-for-longer interest-rate stance. ... But the economic outlook hinges much on what consumers do next. We don’t see them slamming on the spending brakes, as the hard-landers predict will happen when excess savings are

Ed Yardeni

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