Paid Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/31/22 Oct 31, 2022 1 min read paid The bear market has clawed 30% out of stock valuations, returning the S&P 500’s forward P/E to its historical average of 15. But October 12 may have marked the bear’s bottom. If GDP and inflation perform as we expect and the Fed does what everyone expects, that bottom should hold. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This Ed Yardeni
Public The Economic Week Ahead, October 31-November 4 Oct 29, 2022 1 min read Featured It's yet another Fed week. On Wednesday, the FOMC is expected to announce another 75bps hike to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. That would make the fourth consecutive hike of that magnitude. Fed Chair Powell will have to acknowledge that the federal funds rate is now further into restrictive territory and will be even more so come the FOMC’s December meeting, when the rate is Ed Yardeni
Paid What Is The Stock Market Discounting Today? Oct 28, 2022 1 min read paid The stock market is ripping this morning despite disappointing earnings reported by some of the S&P 500's MegaCaps this week. Why? Consider the following: (1) Today's inflation reports (for the ECI and PCED) suggest that it is peaking, though not for sure. (2) Inflation-adjusted consumer spending continues to move higher albeit slowly and led by services as spending on goods has flattened in recent Ed Yardeni
Public Another Weak Regional Business Survey Oct 27, 2022 1 min read Featured With the exception of the 2.6% (saar) increase in Q3's real GDP, the other more forward-looking economic indicators released today were on the weak side. That might explain why the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields eased a bit this morning. In the stock market, some of the mega money that is coming out of the MegaCap-8 today is going into the DJIA-30. The former continue to miss Ed Yardeni
Paid Stocks Float As 2-Year Yield & Dollar Sink Oct 26, 2022 1 min read paid The S&P 500 bottomed this morning around 10 a.m. about 1% below yesterday's close on earnings misses by Alphabet and Microsoft. But it quickly popped back up to the surface, so it now is floating slightly above yesterday's close as of 11 a.m. The trading day isn't over, but there is an interesting dynamic playing out in the markets: (1) Ed Yardeni
Public MegaCaps, ECB & ECI Oct 25, 2022 1 min read History shows that the Santa Claus rally usually starts during October. This year, the S&P 500 had a terrible September, falling 9.3%. Since the end of that month through today's close, the index is up 7.6%. It could be tough sledding for Santa over the rest of this week. After the close, Google missed earnings as YouTube's ad revenue disappointed. In addition, Ed Yardeni
Paid US Turning Into Net Exporter Of Petroleum Oct 24, 2022 1 min read paid On October 11, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that the US should pump more oil amid the world's energy crisis, just days after OPEC+ agreed to a production cut that is equivalent to 2% of the global supply. In a CNBC interview, he said that "America is the swing producer, not Saudi Arabia." We agree. Notwithstanding the Biden administration's hostility to domestic fossil fuel Ed Yardeni
Public MegaCap-8 and a Trading Call Update Oct 24, 2022 1 min read Featured The MegaCap-8 are still the largest yachts in the ocean. These eight stocks currently account for 23% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 index and 46% of the S&P 500 Growth index (chart). This week, five of them--Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, and Amazon--are set to report their earnings. (The other three are Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla.) Their managements will provide insights into how the Ed Yardeni
Paid Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/24/22 Oct 24, 2022 1 min read paid Both the bearish and bullish cases for the stock market currently boil down to how the economy responds to the tectonic monetary policy adjustment from unconventionally ultra-easy to conventionally tight, a.k.a. “The Great Monetary Policy Reversal.” Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: Lots Of Explanations For Current Labor Shortage Oct 23, 2022 6 min read paid Featured Sure, Covid caused many workers to leave the workforce owing to health concerns or for caregiving purposes. But it’s not the only reason for the depressed US labor-force participation rate. Now that the pandemic has abated, life has normalized, but labor-force participation hasn’t. In September, the participation rate was merely 62.3%, over a full percentage point below the level just before the pandemic, in February 2020, of Ed Yardeni
Paid The Economic Week Ahead, October 24-28 Oct 22, 2022 1 min read paid The Q3 earnings reporting season will get most of the attention this week from equity investors. Fortunately, we all get a break from the "Federal Open Mouth Committee" until November 4! But we will all be thinking about how the FOMC might react to this week's stats. Ed Yardeni
Public Fed May Be Dialing Back On Hawkish Squawking Oct 22, 2022 2 min read The S&P 500 rallied 2.37% to 3,752.75 on Friday as the 2-year US Treasury note yield fell to 4.50% from 4.61% on Thursday (chart). The happy day's performance was sparked by Friday's WSJ article titled "Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes." It was written by the Journal' Ed Yardeni