Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 108)

The Bond Vigilantes: They're Baaaack!

Sep 26, 2022 1 min read

The Bond Vigilantes are back. They were last active during the 1980s and early 1990s. They've been mostly lying low since then. That's partly because inflation remained remarkably subdued from the mid-1990s through 2020. Furthermore, in response to the Great Financial Crisis and then the Great Virus Crisis, central banks kept the Bond Vigilantes in check with ZIRP, NIRP, and QE. [1] No more: They'

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/26/22

Sep 26, 2022 1 min read

We’re in a period of global gloom, with pessimism blanketing different countries for different reasons. In the US, measures of consumer, investor, and business sentiment all have sunk recently, which the stock market mirrors. America’s despondency stems much from the Fed’s words and deeds as it attempts to corral inflation at all costs. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Channels Former-Fed Chair Paul Volcker

Sep 26, 2022 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Aug 30 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. It seems that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently read former Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s autobiography, Keeping At It (2018). Amazon’s summary states: “As chairman of the Federal Reserve (1979-1987), Paul Volcker slayed the inflation

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, September 26-30

Sep 25, 2022 1 min read

The blackout period is over for the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee. This week, we can expect that many of the Fed's talking heads will repeat the hawkish remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his presser last Wednesday, i.e., monetary policy needs to be more restrictive to bring down inflation. The week ahead is also jam packed with economic indicators: (1) Consumers &

Ed Yardeni

Another Awful Risk-Off Week

Sep 24, 2022 1 min read paid

The bad news for the stock market this past week actually started on September 16 in the morning after FedEx delivered a terrible preannouncement about the current quarter. The package delivery giant said in a statement the night before that it expects Q1 earnings, excluding some items, to be $3.44 per share, or roughly 33% below the average analyst estimate of $5.10. In addition, FedEx withdrew its earnings

Ed Yardeni

TINA-TAR: There Is No Alternative To A Recession?

Sep 23, 2022 2 min read

The financial markets seem to have concluded that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has decided to go Volcker on us. During 1979-1981, then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker let interest rates soar to levels that caused a recession. He did so to bring inflation down (charts below). During his press conference on Wednesday, Powell unambiguously reiterated the hawkish message of his Jackson Hole speech on August 26. In other words, he strongly suggested

Ed Yardeni

Leading To A Recession?

Sep 22, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Fed Stays On Tightening Course

Sep 21, 2022 2 min read

The Fed lifted the federal funds rate range by 75bps to 3.00%-3.25%. Stocks sold off as Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated during his presser today the main points he made in his hawkish speech at Jackson Hole in late August. He stressed that monetary policy may have to be restrictive for a while to bring inflation down, and that the process may be painful. There wasn'

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: BBR Back Under 1.00

Sep 21, 2022 1 min read paid

Given the recent action in the stock market, it's not surprising to see that the Bull/Bear Ratio compiled by our friends at Investors Intelligence dropped to 0.96 during the September 20 week from 1.15 the previous week (chart below). In the past, readings of 1.00 or less have proven to be contrarian signals of good times to buy for long-term investors.

Ed Yardeni

Housing Already Hard Hit By Fed Tightening

Sep 20, 2022 1 min read

Fed officials have been saying that they are aiming to raise the federal funds rate from an accommodative level to a restrictive one to bring inflation down. In their latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC on June 15, they indicated that they believe that the neutral federal funds rate is 2.50%, which is the upper end of the current target range. Odds are that it

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/19/22

Sep 20, 2022 1 min read

Fed Chair Powell seems to be channeling his 1970s predecessor Paul Volcker—who masterfully tamed high inflation amid a severe recession. Today, we assess how August’s CPI shocker may alter the FOMC’s economic projections and policy decisions. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. We expect Wednesday’s

Ed Yardeni

Money Flooding Into US From Overseas

Sep 19, 2022 1 min read

Money from overseas is pouring into the US capital markets, which foreign investors regard as a haven in a world that’s increasingly unsafe for them. Their mantra is “TINAC: There is no alternative country!” The US Treasury International Capital System (TICS) reported on Friday that private net capital inflows totaled $1.5 trillion over the past 12 months through July, near recent record inflows (chart below). Over this same

Ed Yardeni

Page 108 of 128

The Bond Vigilantes: They're Baaaack!

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/26/22

DEEP DIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Channels Former-Fed Chair Paul Volcker

The Economic Week Ahead, September 26-30

Another Awful Risk-Off Week

TINA-TAR: There Is No Alternative To A Recession?

Leading To A Recession?

Fed Stays On Tightening Course

Market Call: BBR Back Under 1.00

Housing Already Hard Hit By Fed Tightening

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/19/22

Money Flooding Into US From Overseas