Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 109)

Oil's Slippery Slope

Jun 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The Saudis are kicking the barrel down the road. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced an extra 1 million barrel-a-day (mbd) supply cut in July following a tense OPEC+ meeting in Vienna over the weekend. “Others in the group pledged to maintain existing cuts until the end of 2024,” Bloomberg reported, “though Russia made no commitment to curb output further and the United Arab Emirates secured

Ed Yardeni

Dr. Ed Answers Your Questions

Jun 4, 2023 1 min read

💡The following is a roundup of selected questions posted by members in the comment section of our QuickTakes. Oaul S: "The past 2 times recently that the M-PMI has been this low we were in a recession. Don't the present low numbers presage a recession on the horizon?" Dr. Ed: Good question. You are right. However, in our "rolling recession" scenario consumers have

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: MegaCap-8's Latest MAMU

Jun 4, 2023 3 min read paid

We coined the acronym “MAMU” in our May 16, 2013 Morning Briefing. We wrote: “After the widely dreaded ‘fiscal cliff’ scare turned out to be a non-event at the start of 2013, [stock investors] were tired of being anxious that the bull would get tripped by a bear.” We opined: “Perhaps now that investors are no longer fearful that the end is near, all the liquidity pumped into the

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, June 5-9

Jun 4, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a very light week for economic indicators. In addition, the Federal Open Mouth Committee will be silent until their blackout period ends after the FOMC meets on June 14 and 15. On the other hand, now that the debt ceiling deal was signed into law Saturday by President Joe Biden, the US Treasury will flood the fixed income markets with lots of securities to refill its checking

Ed Yardeni

Retiring Boomers Have More Time & Money to Spend on Services

Jun 3, 2023 2 min read

Since early last year, many economists have been forecasting that consumers will retrench, causing a recession. They may be missing the spending boom driven by Baby Boomers. As more and more of them are retiring, they are spending more on travel (including airfare, accommodations, and cruises), eating out, and health care. Employment is expanding in all these areas of the labor market. The retired Baby Boomers may no longer be

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500: Smooth Sailing to Another 2023 High

Jun 1, 2023 2 min read paid

Hooray! The US government won't default on its debts. There are plenty of jobs. Unit-labor-cost inflation is moderating. The banking crisis is abating. The recession is still a no-show. Earnings were better than expected during Q1 and are probably bottoming during the current quarter. The FOMC likely will pause its rate hiking for at least one meeting. AI will boost productivity if it doesn'

Ed Yardeni

Sitting Bull

May 31, 2023 2 min read paid

The bull market seems to be taking a rest. The S&P 500 has stalled just below 4200 since the start of May (chart). That's good considering that several vocal bears predicted that the S&P 500 would fall back down towards its October 12 low during the first half of this year. However, those who recommended going away in May (as the old adage says)

Ed Yardeni

Two Known Knowns About the Economy

May 31, 2023 2 min read paid

Investors are confused: Is the economy strong or is it weak? The answer is "Yes." The labor market is strong, but the manufacturing side of the economy is weak. We've all known that for a while. Today's indicators confirmed what we know. On the weak side today was the ISM Chicago Business Survey as evidenced by the drop in its Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/31/23

May 31, 2023 1 min read paid

Why is economic growth seemingly defying gravity, or at least the gravitational pull of the Fed’s tightening measures over the past year and change? It’s not that the rules of business-cycle physics are defunct. Rather, the pandemic has added new forces to the equation, with distortive effects. Eight unusual forces are acting as shock absorbers to keep the economy from sinking into the widely expected recession. Today,

Ed Yardeni

May's Regional Business Surveys Remained Weak

May 30, 2023 1 min read paid

A federal debt ceiling deal is in the works. The stock market yawned. The bond market rallied. Interest rates fell even though the deal would allow Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to issue lots of Treasuries to replenish her department's checking account. Perhaps the bond market responded to the Dallas Fed's May regional business survey released today, which was weak. So were the other four regional business

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Still Climbing the Wall of Worry

May 29, 2023 2 min read paid

The latest bull market, which started on October 12, when the previous bear market ended, may be on course to be among the most hated bull markets in history. That's because it started with historically high P/Es. In the past, valuations offered compelling opportunities at the end of bear markets. Most despicable is that the bull has the chutzpah to charge ahead when almost everyone agrees a

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 30-June 2