Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 11)

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Is Less Dire Strait Easing Market Fears? (with special guest Eric Wallerstein)

Mar 18, 2026 1 min read paid

The energy and financial markets are taking the war in the Middle East remarkably well, all things considered. Investors seem to believe that the war will be short-lived and perhaps are focusing on the bright side: The lost physical supplies of oil are maybe half as much as they could have been, partly because Iran is still allowing tankers from friendly nations to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Ed Yardeni

Oil Shock Is Latest Test Of US Economy's Resilience

Mar 17, 2026 3 min read paid

The latest crude oil price spike has drawn comparisons to previous similar spikes (charts). There were six of them before the current one, since 1970. The first five coincided with recessions. The two during the 1970s caused two recessions and boosted inflation, resulting in a lost "stagflationary" decade for the stock market. The previous spike in 2022 coincided with a bear market in stocks, but there was no

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

A Break In The Weather

Mar 16, 2026 4 min read paid

Forecasting the weather is easier than forecasting the timeline and outcome of a war. The expression "the fog of war" is a bit confusing because fog often lifts within hours. Wars last much longer. Today, we had "a break in the weather." The war is ongoing, but there were sighs of relief in the energy and financial markets. That's because some tankers are getting

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 16-20

Mar 15, 2026 3 min read

This week, many of the world’s top central banks have their first crack at responding to skyrocketing oil and gas prices driven by the war in the Middle East. Along with hearing from the Fed (Wed), we’ll get rate decisions from the European Central Bank (Thu), the Bank of Japan (Thu), the Bank of England (Thu), the Bank of Canada (Wed), the Swiss National Bank (Thu), Sweden’s

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: The War Is Getting Foggier

Mar 14, 2026 3 min read

Why has the stock market held up so well since the start of the war? The S&P 500 is down only 4.96% from its record high on January 27 and 3.59% since the start of the war on February 28 (chart). It fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday and held it. The obvious explanation is that the market is discounting a short war.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Between Iran and A Hard Place

Mar 14, 2026 10 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our March 9, 2026 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. US Strategy I: Roaring 2020s Vs Stagflating 1970s Redux. In last Tuesday’s QuickTakes, reacting to the latest Middle East war, we wrote: “We’ve been expecting a pullback due to excessive bullish sentiment, but now we expect a 10% correction from the high. It’s hard to imagine that the IRGC [the Islamic Revolutionary Guard

Ed Yardeni

Dire Strait & The Home Front

Mar 12, 2026 5 min read paid

Stock and bond prices fell today as oil prices rose back to around $100 per barrel. The US and Israel continue to pound Iran from the air, but Iran's regime continues to launch missiles and drones at Gulf nations and vessels, and Israel too. The WSJ reported today that "Israeli officials assess Iran's ruling regime is unlikely to fall soon, as its rulers remain in

Ed Yardeni

FINANCIALS: Black & Blue Owl

Mar 11, 2026 3 min read paid

Today, the 32-member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously approved a coordinated emergency oil release of 400 million barrels, the largest in its 52-year history. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately 20mbd of oil from the global market. That implies the IEA is providing 20 days' worth of relief oil supplies and that the group expects a short war. The price

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Between Iran & A Hard Place

Mar 11, 2026 1 min read paid

With the US suddenly thick in the fog of war, Dr Ed discusses the collateral effects on the US economy and stock market. Spiking oil prices may precipitate a stock market correction rather than a bear market, but the latter is possible. The Roaring 2020s remains Dr Ed’s base-case outlook for the rest of this year with subjective odds unchanged at 60%. But there’s now much less

Ed Yardeni

Buying Time Till Iran Surrenders

Mar 10, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow, the 32 countries that are members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will vote on an IEA proposal to tap their strategic petroleum reserves to bring down oil prices, which have been boosted by the latest war in the Middle East. The release would exceed the oil that IEA countries released after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The IEA members hold 1.8 billion barrels in reserves, which include

Ed Yardeni

Policymakers Trying To Cap Gushing Oil Fears

Mar 9, 2026 3 min read

Oftentimes, when the financial markets are hit by bad news, policymakers scramble to calm them. That happened today in response to last night's soaring oil prices (chart). (1) G7 response. To address the market turmoil following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors held an emergency virtual meeting today. The group's primary strategy was to signal

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 8-12

Mar 8, 2026 3 min read

This promises to be a nerve-racking week of developments in the Middle East. In the nine days since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the conflict has embroiled various neighboring countries. Tehran’s moves to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz are causing sharp spikes in oil and gas prices – and sending economic forecasters back to the drawing board. This evening, Brent crude topped $100 a barrel.

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

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