Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 64)

A Christmas Market For The Bull? S&P 500 At 6000 In 2025?

Dec 10, 2023 3 min read paid

Christmas is in two weeks. This year's Santa Claus rally started early, i.e., on October 27. Will it last through Christmas? Will the rally continue through the end of this year, and maybe through the end of 2024 or even 2025? We think so. In our November 3, 2022 Morning Briefing, we wrote that “we think the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 and see

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 11 - 15

Dec 10, 2023 2 min read paid

The big event of the week will be the FOMC meeting (Tue & Wed) followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's presser (Wed @ 2:30 pm). December's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be released along with the Dot Plot after the meeting. The markets have most likely fully discounted what Powell will say and what the SEP and Dot Plot will show. Powell will say that

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Construction Is Booming!

Dec 8, 2023 3 min read paid

The US economy has been remarkably resilient in the face of the Fed’s aggressive tightening of monetary policy since early last year. One of the sectors that accounts for that resilience is the construction industry. In the past, rising interest rates always depressed construction, which exacerbated the resulting recessions (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). This time, the weakness in residential construction has been offset by relatively strong private nonresidential

Ed Yardeni

Another Bowl Of Mixed Nuts

Dec 7, 2023 2 min read

The S&P 500 is consolidating its gains since the October 27 bottom. In recent days, its been trading between 4550 and 4600 (chart). Investors are trying to ascertain which way the economy is headed in 2024. We remain in the soft landing camp. Today's data continued to show that consumers have jobs. However, the latest reading on consumer credit borrowing was weak. Consider the following: (1)

Ed Yardeni

Productivity Revised Up

Dec 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market marked time again today with the S&P 500 remaining around 4550. The 10-year Treasury bond yield continued to fall today to 4.10%. Apparently, today's economic indicators were deemed to be more bullish for bonds than stocks. Consider the following: (1) Employment & wages. ADP reported that payrolls rose just 103,000 during November. Job-stayers saw a 5.6% pay increase in November,

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/6/23

Dec 6, 2023 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Soft Landing Remains In Play and Bullish

Dec 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is taking a rest just north of 4550 and south of 4600. Stock investors are waiting for November's jobs report on Friday to decide what to do next. Meanwhile, bond investors aren't waiting to buy more bonds. They liked the latest batch of economic indicators and drove the 10-year Treasury bond yield below 4.25%. Here is a brief overview of

Ed Yardeni

Better Bull Breadth?

Dec 4, 2023 2 min read paid

The latest bull market started on October 12, 2022. Its detractors have been saying that it may not be the real thing. They've observed that it has been narrowly led by the MegaCap-8. That's true. The bearish naysayers have concluded that the bull market therefore isn't sustainable. We disagree. Our alternative outlook is that the bull market should broaden, which may be starting to

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Monitoring Geopolitical Risk In the Middle East

Dec 3, 2023 2 min read paid

The Santa Claus rally is about to be tested again by the prospects of a regional war in the Middle East. The Gaza War started on October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel. Yet both bond and stock prices have rallied since late October as investors bet that it would stay localized. So far, it has. Indeed, even the price of a barrel of brent crude oil has declined since then

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 4 - 8

Dec 3, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Earnings Climbing Higher

Dec 1, 2023 2 min read

S&P 500 earnings per share are heading up according to industry analysts. We agree. There was lots of pessimism over the past year, with a few influential Wall Street strategists predicting that this year’s result could break bad, i.e., below $200. We stuck with our projections of $225 for this year and $250 for 2024, which seemed farfetched (if not delusional) late last year. But then

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Cooling

Nov 30, 2023 2 min read paid

Stocks rallied today as October's PCED inflation rate continued to moderate. Most importantly, the inflation rate of PCED services excluding energy and housing is falling. It has been stuck around 5.0% in 2022 and earlier this year. But it was down to 3.9% y/y in October (chart). Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have said that they are concerned about the stickiness of this

Ed Yardeni

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