AI - Yardeni QuickTakes

AI-Led Economic Boom Driving Yields Higher In US As Japanese Yields Continue To Normalize

Aug 18, 2026 4 min read paid

Several factors are driving bond yields higher worldwide (chart). The war in the Middle East in March boosted yields amid concerns that soaring oil prices would revive inflation. The war, along with other geopolitical crises, is bound to increase defense spending and widen already bloated government deficits. Central banks are increasingly pivoting from easing to tightening their monetary policies (chart). As a result, 10-year government bond yields have increased

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Economy Is Fine & The Fed Should Be Turning More Hawkish

Aug 5, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Macro The economy's two most important engines of economic growth, consumer spending and business investment, are booming. In Q2-2026 real GDP, consumption expenditures increased 3.3% (saar) and nonresidential fixed investments jumped 8.4%. The headline and core GDP deflators, the most comprehensive measures of economy-wide inflation, rose 4.3% y/y and 3.8% (chart). Fed officials should be turning hawkish. Recent Q2 earnings

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stock Market's Summer Stall Is Over Thanks To The ‘OK Economy’ & FEMO

Aug 4, 2026 5 min read paid

In an interview with CNBC, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and Iran could reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz to "freedom of movement" as soon as "today or tomorrow." Following his remarks—alongside reports of ongoing regional mediation via Qatar and Oman—crude oil prices dropped significantly. Brent crude fell below $80/barrel. The US Treasury yield curve edged lower

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

AI Capex Boom Continues to Boost US Economic Growth

Jul 27, 2026 4 min read Premium Member tier

I. On Industrials Investors are suffering from AI fatigue. They've concluded that there is no way to estimate whether all the capital spending on AI infrastructure will generate good ROIs in the coming years. What they do know is that hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent on AI capex in the here and now. That explains why S&P 500 Industrials is the second-best-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Downgrading Emerging Markets To Market Weight

Jul 19, 2026 4 min read paid

We are downgrading emerging markets to market weight, not because the Go Global thesis is broken but because four separate short-term headwinds are converging at once: (1) The price of oil is back above $80 a barrel as the IRGC keeps the Strait of Hormuz contested. (2) The FOMC is hawkish. With inflation still sticky and a solid labor market, financial markets are currently pricing in one rate hike

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

A Refreshingly Cool CPI Inflation Report Must Please Warsh

Jul 14, 2026 4 min read paid

Will the FOMC raise the federal funds rate (FFR) at its July 28-29 meeting? Foggetaboutit! Today's CPI inflation report was surprisingly subdued across the board. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target, so the FOMC is likely to maintain its tightening stance, which was adopted in June. However, after the latest inflation report, there is no rush for the FOMC to act, contrary to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

June FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed's Hawkish Pivot

Jul 9, 2026 4 min read

I. Sentiment The S&P 500 first rose above 7,500 on May 14. It has continued to fluctuate around there since then. This may be a sign that investors are a bit fatigued from all the commotion about the Strait of Hormuz, AI, earnings, Warsh, the Magnificent-7, semiconductors, FOMO, and FEMO so far this year. The market might continue to fluctuate around 7,500 over the rest

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

INDUSTRIES: Mag-7 Isn't The Only AI Game In Town

May 9, 2026 4 min read

Since ChatGPT was introduced in late November 2022, the AI trade has been mostly focused on the Magnificent-7, especially the big cloud companies, i.e., the "hyperscalers” (chart). For a while, they were all viewed as AI dominators until DeepSeek was released by a Chinese software company in late January 2025. Increasing confidence that US Large Language Models (LLMs) would remain competitive revived the Mag-7's

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Thanks For The Memory

Mar 23, 2026 4 min read paid

We are taking a break from the war. We may wait until Friday to update our views on its likely impact on the global economy and financial markets. This morning, President Donald Trump triggered a relief rally in the stock market by postponing his threatened attack on Iran's power plants, scheduled for today, until the end of the week. He added that the US is negotiating with Iran.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Will The US Economy Remain Resilient Despite AI Derangement Syndrome?

Feb 26, 2026 4 min read paid

If AI continues to disrupt, if not destroy, more and more business models, won't that cause a recession? It might if it triggers lots of white-collar layoffs, which in turn lead to blue-collar job losses (chart). Alternatively, it might cause a credit crunch in the private credit markets. UBS Group AG has raised its private credit default forecast, with its strategists warning that losses could reach

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Update On AI Derangement Syndrome & Its Consequences

Feb 25, 2026 3 min read paid

Last year's impressive stock market rally, which began on April 9 (when POTUS postponed his Liberation Day tariffs), was fueled by AI Optimism. It turned into AI Fatigue late last year and, in recent weeks, into AI Fear. Now it's AI Derangement Syndrome. For a while, AI was widely thought of as a productivity-enhancing tool. Now the worry is that it has turned into a

Ed Yardeni

Is AI Frankenstein?

Feb 23, 2026 3 min read paid

The people who've created large language models (LLMs) to power artificial intelligence (AI) are now using them to code better LLMs. If LLMs are now so good at coding that they can create their own better versions, who needs coders anymore? Are the only jobs left in the software industry the ones for LLM prompters? In 5-10 short prompts, they have to tell the LLM what new

Ed Yardeni

AI

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