Central Banks

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 23-27

Mar 22, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is all about oil prices. As the Iran war enters its fourth week, the soaring price of crude has rapidly upended economic forecasts and shifted expectations for central bank policy. Nowhere more so than at the Fed. In barely a week, bond traders have swung from expecting rate cuts to pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a tightening move by October. In Europe, the financial markets

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek
Toby Hearst

Time To Sell America?

Jan 26, 2026 4 min read paid

The financial press was flooded with "American Exceptionalism" narratives throughout 2023 and 2024, and into early 2025. The April 15, 2024 cover story of The Economist was titled, "Riding High: The lessons of American exceptionalism." On May 25, 2024, the cover story of The Economist was "The almighty dollar." It focused on the dollar's enduring global dominance. The "Sell America"

Ed Yardeni

Getting Dizzy? Buy Gold.

Mar 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices are falling because Trump Turmoil 2.0 is making investors dizzy. Just today, President Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs will be imposed on Canada and Mexico tomorrow. He also said that the US will impose tariffs on agricultural products on April 2. The President ordered a pause on all US military aid to Ukraine, three days after he kicked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky out of the White

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 19-23

Aug 18, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is light on economic data. However, there will be lots of news coming out of Jackson Hole, Wyoming from Thursday through Saturday as many of the world's central bankers gather for their annual meeting near the Grand Teton mountain range. Most important will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday at 10:00 a.m. (EST). Many other central bankers from the

Ed Yardeni

Will The Fed Join The Rate-Cutting Pack Of Central Banks?

Jun 6, 2024 2 min read

US stocks rose to record highs on Wednesday. European stocks did the same today after the ECB lowered its official interest rate to 3.75%, down from a record 4.00%, where it has been since September 2023 and the first cut since 2019. Leading the rate-cutting pack of the major central banks was the People's Bank of China, which lowered its prime rate last year on August

Ed Yardeni

Tight Fed Fueling Foreign Stock Market Rallies?

May 8, 2024 3 min read paid

In the past, the major foreign central banks often followed the Fed's lead. This time, they aren't waiting for the Fed to ease before doing so themselves. That's boosting the foreign exchange value of the dollar as well as many overseas stock markets. Consider the following: (1) The Swedish Riksbank cut its official rate by a quarter-point today, to 3.75% from 4.00%

Ed Yardeni

The Bears' Favorite Chart

Jan 3, 2023 2 min read

One of the bears’ favorite charts shows the relationship between the S&P 500 and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. The former rose 609% from March 9, 2009 through January 3, 2022 (chart). Over this same period, the Fed’s assets rose 1,005% from $760 billion in March 2009 to $8.4 trillion in January 2022. That was all wildly bullish for stocks and bonds.

Ed Yardeni

The Bond Vigilantes: They're Baaaack!

Sep 26, 2022 1 min read

The Bond Vigilantes are back. They were last active during the 1980s and early 1990s. They've been mostly lying low since then. That's partly because inflation remained remarkably subdued from the mid-1990s through 2020. Furthermore, in response to the Great Financial Crisis and then the Great Virus Crisis, central banks kept the Bond Vigilantes in check with ZIRP, NIRP, and QE. [1] No more: They'

Ed Yardeni

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