Economy

The Economic Week Ahead 7/5/22

Jul 3, 2022 2 min read paid

Last week’s economic calendar was chock full of recessionary indicators. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is tracking Q2’s real GDP at -2.0% currently, following Q1’s actual decline of -1.6%. It increasingly looks like the economy has entered a mild recession. However, this week’s indicators, with the focus almost entirely on consumers, aren't likely to be definitive on this matter: (1) Demand for

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Readings in June’s M-PMI Report

Jul 1, 2022 2 min read

June’s national M-PMI was reported this morning, and it wasn’t as weak as suggested by the regional business surveys conducted by 5 of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. However, the new orders component of the national index was almost as weak as suggested by the comparable regional average index (charts below). Here are some quick takeaways from the national survey of manufacturing purchasing managers: (1) June’

Ed Yardeni

It's (Unofficially) a Recession!

Jun 30, 2022 2 min read

The economy continues to teeter on the edge of a recession. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model shows Q2's real GDP growth at -1.0% (saar). It was revised down from 0.3% following this morning's release of May's personal income and consumption data. The model shows real consumer spending up 1.7%, a downward revision from 2.7%. In addition, real

Ed Yardeni

Supply-Chain Disruptions Easing. More Supply or Less Demand?

Jun 28, 2022 1 min read

June's surveys of five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks strongly suggest that supply-chain disruptions have eased significantly in recent months. However, that has yet to relieve inflationary pressures according to the surveys. The question is whether the drops in regional indexes tracking unfilled orders and delivery times during the first half of this year reflect more ample supplies or diminishing demand. Presumably, if demand is

Ed Yardeni

June's Regional Business Surveys Were Recessionary

Jun 28, 2022 2 min read paid

It's hard to come up with anything positive to say about June's batch of regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. That's because they were mostly in negative territory (chart below). They certainly add to the credibility of the recession-is-here scenario. However, the regional surveys tend to focus on manufacturing rather than services. Indeed, the averages

Ed Yardeni

Regional Business Surveys Bearish for New Orders

Jun 27, 2022 1 min read

The economy is teetering. After the release of durable goods orders this morning, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model showed Q2 real GDP rising by a paltry 0.3% (saar), but up from 0.0% previously. Nondefense capital goods orders, a measure of capital spending, rose at a better-than-expected pace of 0.5% m/m (9.8% y/y) during May to yet another record high. However,

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: How's Business?

Jun 26, 2022 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing. Every month, the Census Bureau releases its “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services.” The latest report was released on June 15 at 8:30 a.m. An hour and a half later every month, the Census Bureau releases its “Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales” report—for the previous month. In other words, on June 15, Census reported retail sales

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 6/27/22

Jun 25, 2022 2 min read

The week ahead is jam packed with June regional and national economic surveys. They are likely to confirm that we live in stagflationary times. Key consumer indicators are likely to show that Americans are spending less on goods, more on services, and much more on everything because of inflation. More specifically: (1) Among the biggies will be the national M-PMI on Friday, which is the first day of July.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 6/21/22

Jun 20, 2022 1 min read

The week ahead is a short one for the financial markets, and it is a light one for US economic indicators. But that doesn’t mean it will be a quiet week for the markets, since we live in volatile times. May data for existing home sales (to be released on Tuesday) and new home sales (on Friday) are likely to show that the housing market is falling deeper into

Ed Yardeni

US Production and LEI Signaling Softish Landing

Jun 17, 2022 2 min read paid

There was a tiny hint of a manufacturing recession in May's industrial production index, which was reported today. It is one of the four components of the Index of Coincident Economic indicators (CEI). May's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), also reported today, is signaling slower economic growth ahead as well: (1) The LEI, which remains near its recent record high, fell in May by 0.

Ed Yardeni

Two Regional Business Surveys Showing More Stagflation In June

Jun 16, 2022 2 min read paid

Two regional business surveys, conducted by five of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, are now available for the New York and Philadelphia districts through June. These two always come out before the other three for Kansas City, Richmond, and Dallas. They also tend to reflect the average final results of all five surveys. The averages of both the two surveys and all five of them closely track the national manufacturing

Ed Yardeni

May's Retail Sales Depressed Q2's Real GDP

Jun 16, 2022 2 min read

May's retail sales was weak in current dollars (-0.3% m/m) and even weaker in real dollars (-1.6%). The question is whether consumers have more than satisfied their post-lockdown, pent-up demand for goods, and are now spending more on services? Consider the following: (1) The three rounds of stimulus checks provided by Uncle Sam (actually Uncles Don and Joe) during the pandemic certainly stimulated

Ed Yardeni

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