Employment

Productivity Revised Up

Dec 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market marked time again today with the S&P 500 remaining around 4550. The 10-year Treasury bond yield continued to fall today to 4.10%. Apparently, today's economic indicators were deemed to be more bullish for bonds than stocks. Consider the following: (1) Employment & wages. ADP reported that payrolls rose just 103,000 during November. Job-stayers saw a 5.6% pay increase in November,

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 4 - 8

Dec 3, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Cooling

Nov 30, 2023 2 min read paid

Stocks rallied today as October's PCED inflation rate continued to moderate. Most importantly, the inflation rate of PCED services excluding energy and housing is falling. It has been stuck around 5.0% in 2022 and earlier this year. But it was down to 3.9% y/y in October (chart). Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have said that they are concerned about the stickiness of this

Ed Yardeni

Loose Fed Lips Sink Yields

Nov 28, 2023 2 min read paid

Not much happened in the stock market today even though the 10-year bond yield fell to 4.34% from a high of 4.98% on October 19 (chart). The 2-year yield sank to 4.73%, the lowest since July 17. This morning, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that inflation is still too high. But he also said that if inflation continues to cool “for several more months—I don’t

Ed Yardeni

Thanks!

Nov 22, 2023 2 min read

We wish you a great Thanksgiving Day tomorrow with your family and friends. We thank you for your interest in our research service. We are thankful that 2023 has turned out to be a better year than 2022, as we predicted. The S&P 500 is up 18.7% ytd following last year's decline of 19.4%. We will be thankful if 2024 is another good year

Ed Yardeni

Will Powell Sound More Dovish On Wednesday?

Oct 31, 2023 2 min read paid

The short answer is: We doubt it. It's unlikely that his views on the economy and monetary policy have changed much since his hawkish interview on October 19 at the Economic Club of New York. So he is likely to maintain the same tone at his presser on Wednesday following the latest FOMC meeting. The message should remain the same. Monetary policy will have to remain restrictive until

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: October 29 - November 3

Oct 29, 2023 2 min read paid

Investors would clearly like to see peace on earth and goodwill towards all people. But that ain't happening anytime soon. They would also like to see the US economy slow so that inflation will fall faster and the Fed will turn less hawkish. That ain't likely to happen this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will probably be as hawkish at his presser on Wednesday, following the

Ed Yardeni

Some Good News From The Bond Market

Oct 3, 2023 2 min read

Hurray! The bond market will be closed next Monday for Columbus Day. It has done enough damage in recent weeks. Today, the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to 4.81% just because job openings edged up in August (chart). Nevertheless, we think the trend is still downward. The same goes for quits. Both are highly correlated with wage inflation as measured by average hourly earnings, which will be reported for

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 2 - 6

Sep 30, 2023 2 min read paid

The first week of the month is usually jampacked with employment indicator releases. On balance, we expect they will show that the labor market remains relatively strong. August's JOLTS report (Tue) could show that job openings fell but remained high as evidenced by the "jobs plentiful" series in the consumer confidence survey (chart). The jobs plentiful series also suggests less upward pressure on wages, as measured

Ed Yardeni

Hooray! Job Openings & Quits Fall

Aug 29, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market rallied on Friday, Monday, and today despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The S&P 500 rose back above its 50-day moving average (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.12% today. The rallies in both stocks and bonds received a bullish jolt from June’s JOLTS report today showing fewer job openings and quits than expected

Ed Yardeni

Upside Productivity Surprise Subdues Inflation, Maybe

Aug 3, 2023 1 min read

Wow! This morning's Q2 Productivity and Costs report was surprisingly good, but a bit hard to believe. Nonfarm productivity jumped 3.7% q/q (saar) as output increased 2.4% (the same as real GDP), while hours worked fell 1.3% (chart). The decline in hours worked is the first decline since Q2-2020 and was the result of a 1.3% decline in average weekly hours; employment was

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 31-August 4

Jul 30, 2023 2 min read paid

The M-PMI is released on the first business day of each month. The NM-PMI is released two days later. We expect that the former (Tue) will show that the rolling recession in the goods-producing sector is bottoming, while the latter (Thu) should show that the service-providing sector is still expanding. We already have four of the regional business surveys conducted by five FRB district banks. The average of their general

Stephen Rybka

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