Fed

Talking Heads Talk Stocks Down

Sep 26, 2023 2 min read paid

We were surprised that stock prices didn't drop yesterday along with bond prices. So we aren't surprised to see stock prices down today. Contributing to the selloff was JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who warned interest rates may need to rise further to subdue inflation. In an interview with The Times of India, he said that the Fed might have to raise the federal funds rate

Ed Yardeni

FOMC's Message: High For Longer

Sep 20, 2023 2 min read paid

The FOMC’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released today shows that the median forecast of the federal funds rate (FFR) for 2023 is 5.6%, unchanged from June’s SEP (table). The 2024 forecast was raised to 5.1% from 4.6%. As we expected, the FOMC’s message is that the FFR might be lowered next year by 50bps rather than 100bps. The latest SEP shows headline

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 18-22

Sep 16, 2023 2 min read paid

The Dot Plot thickens! Other than another FOMC meeting, it's a slow week ahead for economic indicators. The committee's statement is widely expected to pass on another rate hike, but suggest that there could be another one at the November meeting. All eyes will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which is updated quarterly and includes the "Dot Plot," which shows the

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Fretting More About Credit & Less About Inflation

Sep 11, 2023 2 min read paid

Tech stocks seem to go up whenever the bond yield stops doing so. Leading tech stocks higher today was Tesla, which is actually in the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector. Morgan Stanley issued a very bullish report on the auto company's new "Dojo" supercomputer. It suggests that Tesla may also be a play on AI. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yield remained below

Ed Yardeni

PCED Inflation Rate Still On Moderating Course

Aug 31, 2023 2 min read paid

Both the headline and core PCED inflation rates rose 0.2% m/m in July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell anticipated that they would be moderate as they were in June in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday of last week. However, he said that two consecutive months of such moderation aren't enough. He wants to see inflation drop closer to the Fed's 2.0% target on

Ed Yardeni

Hooray! Job Openings & Quits Fall

Aug 29, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market rallied on Friday, Monday, and today despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The S&P 500 rose back above its 50-day moving average (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.12% today. The rallies in both stocks and bonds received a bullish jolt from June’s JOLTS report today showing fewer job openings and quits

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 21-25

Aug 19, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Urge To Merge

Jul 26, 2023 2 min read paid

When the banking crisis occurred during March, we concluded that the Fed's emergency liquidity response would contain the problem. We predicted that investors soon would be scrambling to determine which regional banks might be acquired rather than worrying about which of them might be seized by banking regulators. We argued that the higher costs of regulation that would soon be imposed on the smaller banks would force the

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Recession Rolling Over Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

Jul 24, 2023 2 min read paid

The rolling recession is rolling over the commercial real estate market (CRE), especially the market for urban office buildings. In our opinion, the challenges facing that market are serious but shouldn’t cause an economy-wide credit crunch and a recession. The Fed’s May 2023 Financial Stability Report included a review of the CRE credit market. The report observes: “The shift toward telework in many industries has dramatically reduced

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 24-28

Jul 23, 2023 2 min read paid

The Fed is widely expected to hike the federal funds rate (FFR) on Wednesday by 25bps to a range of 5.25%-5.50%. Will that be restrictive enough for the Fed? Will that be the terminal rate? At his presser on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to say: "Maybe, maybe not." He will acknowledge that inflation is still moderating even though

Ed Yardeni

June's CPI Was Cool

Jul 12, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Market Not Fazed By Bearish Fed and Nvidia Talk

Jun 29, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market held up remarkably well yesterday despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell's warning that "there's more restriction coming" because the labor market remains too strong. He suggested that 25-bps rate hikes are still on the table for the next two meetings of the FOMC. Powell spoke during a monetary policy session in Sintra, Portugal, which is famous for its huge crashing ocean

Ed Yardeni

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