Fed

Housing Already Hard Hit By Fed Tightening

Sep 20, 2022 1 min read

Fed officials have been saying that they are aiming to raise the federal funds rate from an accommodative level to a restrictive one to bring inflation down. In their latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC on June 15, they indicated that they believe that the neutral federal funds rate is 2.50%, which is the upper end of the current target range. Odds are that it

Ed Yardeni

Major Housing Crash?

Sep 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Billionaire real estate investor Barry Sternlicht said he believes the economy is "braking hard" and that the continuation of rate hikes is likely to cause a "major crash" in housing. The chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital Group said so in a CNBC interview on Thursday. “If the Fed keeps this up they are going to have a serious recession and people will lose their jobs.

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Shocks The Markets

Sep 13, 2022 1 min read paid

August's CPI report shocked the financial markets. It was widely expected to confirm that inflation peaked around June based on the drop in gasoline prices during July and August and mounting evidence that durable goods inflation is moderating. The problem is that in the nondurable goods category of the CPI, food inflation remains high, offsetting some of the improvement in energy-related prices (table below). While overall goods inflation

Ed Yardeni

Lots Of Jobs, But...

Sep 2, 2022 1 min read

This morning's jobs report for August was a good one even though the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. It did so because 786,000 workers entered the labor force, while the household measure of employment rose 442,000. The new entrants shouldn't have any problem finding jobs, while an increase in job seekers may take the pressure off employers to raise wages

Ed Yardeni

Fed Wants To See Fewer Help Wanted Signs

Aug 30, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell just below its 50-day moving average today partly because the labor market remains hot. July's JOLTS report showed that there were 11.2 million job openings for 5.7 million of the unemployed (chart below). In addition, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rebounded slightly from July's low as only 11.4% of CCI survey respondents said jobs are hard to

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Fugetaboutit Speech

Aug 27, 2022 1 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell did pivot on Friday morning at Jackson Hole in his 8-minute speech on the outlook for monetary policy. He turned much more hawkish than the financial markets expected. In his short talk, he managed to walk back any hint of dovishness he might have conveyed during his previous public appearance in a press conference on July 27. Back then, his often ambiguous off-the-cuff responses to reporters

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Speech: Short & Hawkish

Aug 26, 2022 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech today at the Fed's Jackson Hole conference was short and hawkish. He reiterated that the Fed's job is to bring inflation down even though doing so is bound to weigh on economic growth and cause some weakness in the labor market. He quashed any lingering expectations that the Fed would pause its tightening and might lower interest rates next

Ed Yardeni

The Calm Before The Storm?

Aug 25, 2022 1 min read

They say that the stock market tends to climb a wall of worry. It has been doing just that since the S&P 500 bottomed at 3666.77 on June 16. It rose 1.4% today even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference tomorrow, and might sound more hawkish to compensate for sounding too dovish at his prior speaking

Ed Yardeni

The Chairman's Speech: What Will Jerome Powell Say?

Aug 24, 2022 2 min read

Have you heard? Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday morning at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Economic Policy Symposium, which is held at a nice resort at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Odds are he won't change his tune much from what he said in his prepared remarks at his July 27 presser, which was less than a month ago. Since then: July'

Ed Yardeni

The Most Bearish Two Charts In Our Collection

Aug 23, 2022 1 min read

On our website, thousands of our charts are automatically updated as new data become available. The most bearish of the lot are shown below. The first one shows the Fed's holdings of securities versus the S&P 500. The second shows the former versus the forward P/E of the S&P 500. We added a dotted line to track the Fed’s QT2, which ramps

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Risk Off

Aug 21, 2022 1 min read

The stock market is overbought. Since June 16, the S&P 500 is up 15% including its 1.2% decline last week back to 4228, failing to rise above its 200-day moving average, which was 4306 on Friday. Over the same period, the Nasdaq is up 19% after giving back 2% last week. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up 41bps from a recent low of 2.

Ed Yardeni

Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?

Jul 31, 2022 1 min read

The wage-price-rent spiral continues to spiral. Yet, the Bond Vigilantes, who were very vigilant at the start of the year, seem to be taking a siesta now. The US Treasury bond yield peaked this year (so far) at 3.49% on June 14, falling to 2.67% on Friday. That’s surprising given that inflation remains so high. But we aren’t surprised. As we’ve pointed out before, the

Ed Yardeni

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