GDP

The Economic Week Ahead: July 24-28

Jul 23, 2023 2 min read paid

The Fed is widely expected to hike the federal funds rate (FFR) on Wednesday by 25bps to a range of 5.25%-5.50%. Will that be restrictive enough for the Fed? Will that be the terminal rate? At his presser on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to say: "Maybe, maybe not." He will acknowledge that inflation is still moderating even though

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Expansion?

Jun 20, 2023 2 min read paid

What happens after a rolling recession? Perhaps a rolling expansion as the economic sectors that fell into a recession recover. Today's housing starts report for May was certainly strong. Housing starts jumped 21.6% to 1.63 million units (saar) last month from April's 1.34 million (chart). It was the largest percentage gain since October 2016. A survey on Monday showed the National Association of

Ed Yardeni

A Hawkish Skip at the Fed

Jun 14, 2023 2 min read paid

In this past Sunday's QT, we wrote: "On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will update us on the committee's latest views. Odds are the FOMC will skip another rate hike, but hint that rate hiking might not be over." Sure enough, the FOMC skipped and the committee's statement noted: "Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee to

Ed Yardeni

The Economy Is Still Gliding Along

May 28, 2023 2 min read paid

Apparently, the debt ceiling issue has been resolved over the weekend, as we expected. The stock market might rally on Tuesday, but it has been taking the issue in stride focusing more on AI than Washington's political theater. The economy continues to glide calmly as evidenced by Friday's personal income report for April. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model raised Q2's real

Ed Yardeni

Inventories Depress GDP

Apr 27, 2023 1 min read

Economic growth wasn't as weak as suggested by real GDP which rose only 1.1% (saar) during Q1. During Q4, inventories surged as consumers pivoted from buying goods to purchasing services. Goods producers and providers stopped building unwanted inventories by cutting their orders to their suppliers and by lowering their prices to move their excess merchandise out the front door. So, excluding inventories, real final sales rose 3.

Ed Yardeni

Falling Interest Rates

Apr 4, 2023 2 min read

Interest rates continued to fall today after Jamie Dimon, who is the President, CEO & Chairman of JP Morgan Chase, warned that the banking crisis is "not yet over" and will cause "repercussions for years to come." He did so in his annual letter to stockholders. With all those titles, he must know what he is talking about. He observed that potential losses from held-to-

Ed Yardeni

Born To Shop & Fly

Feb 15, 2023 1 min read

We aren't that surprised by the 3.0% m/m jump in retail sales reported today. When January's employment data were released, we calculated our Earned Income Proxy for private wages and salaries in personal income (chart). It soared 1.5% m/m as the average workweek jumped 0.9%, payrolls increased 0.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3%. American consumers are doing what

Ed Yardeni

Q4 GDP Report Was Weak & Inflation Moderated

Jan 26, 2023 2 min read

The headlines in the financial press today suggested that Q4's real GDP was strong. On closer inspection, it was relatively weak and consistent with our view that the economy has been in a "rolling recession" since early last year when the Fed started to tighten monetary policy. Real GDP rose 2.9% (saar) following 3.2% during Q3 (chart). However, real final sales of domestic product

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 23-27

Jan 22, 2023 2 min read paid

The Federal Open Mouth Committee is giving us a break. Their blackout period started on Saturday. We won't hear from them again until February 1 at 2:30 p.m. That's when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a presser following the latest FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, corporate managements will have a lot to say during their current earnings reporting season. This week is packed with potentially

Ed Yardeni

US Consumers Depress Stock Investors

Jan 18, 2023 2 min read paid

Bond prices rallied and stock prices fell on renewed worries about a consumer-led recession following the release this morning of December's retail sales and industrial production. Both declined last month. Yesterday, the NY Fed's regional business survey for January was also very weak. (We will review it tomorrow along with the Philly Fed's latest regional business survey.) Let's have a closer

Ed Yardeni

What Are We Rooting For?

Dec 22, 2022 2 min read

On Tuesday, the stock market sold off on fears of a hard landing. On Wednesday, the market rallied on better-than-expected earnings reports from Nike and FedEx and better-than-expected consumer confidence. Today, the market sold off on news that the labor market remains tight, raising fears of higher-for-longer Fed rate hiking. On the other hand, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, released today, was very

Ed Yardeni

The Fed: Higher For Longer

Dec 14, 2022 1 min read paid

The FOMC provided its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) today after the committee announced a 50bps rate hike to a range of 4.25%-4.50% (table). At his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that that the rate is now restrictive, but not restrictive enough.

Ed Yardeni

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