S&P 500

Market Call

Apr 3, 2023 2 min read paid

No news is good news. Every day that nothing terrible happens in the banking system is a good day for the stock market. That helps to explain last week's strong rally (up 3.5%) (chart). Yes, but this morning, there's bad news on the energy front as OPEC+ is cutting oil production sending oil prices higher. That's good news for the S&P

Ed Yardeni

April Is Coming

Mar 30, 2023 2 min read paid

April is the second best month of the year for the stock market. From 1928 through 2022, the S&P 500 was up 1.4% on average during the month, second only to July's 1.7% average gain (chart). The S&P 500 is up 1.5% since the end of February through today (chart). That's impressive given that Silicon Valley Bank imploded on

Ed Yardeni

Bad Breadth Again

Mar 28, 2023 1 min read

The ratio of the equal-weighted to market-cap-weighted S&P 500 stock price indexes is an interesting measure of market breadth. It is available daily since 1990 (chart). Based on this limited period, we can see that the ratio tends to rise following recessions and to peak before recessions. It bottoms just before or during recessions. The same pattern seems to apply to this ratio during bull and bear markets

Ed Yardeni

MegaCap-8 Stocks Are Outperforming Again

Mar 19, 2023 1 min read paid

The MegaCap-8 stocks seem to do well during pandemics. They did so in 2020 during the Covid lockdowns. They may be doing so again during the banking crisis. Their collective market-cap share has jumped from 19.0% a few weeks ago to 23.5% on Friday (chart).

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 18, 2023 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 closed at 3916.64 on Friday, just above where it closed at the end of last year (chart). We asked Joe Feshbach for his latest trading thoughts. He observes: "The market doesn’t need these premature rallies. They only serve to prolong the correction as negative sentiment doesn’t have time to intensify. Surprisingly, the daily put/call ratio (PCR) fell way to quickly

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 12, 2023 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 dropped 3.3% on Thursday and Friday, led by money center and regional bank stocks as a result of the SVB debacle. The index fell through both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages to close at 3861.59, just 0.6% above its 2022 close (chart). January’s big gains among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 mostly evaporated during February and

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 may continue to mark time until the data more convincingly support either the bull or the bear case. The index bounced off its 200-day moving average (dma) and closed above its 50-dma on Friday (chart). If the batch of economic indicators over the next two weeks is as strong as was January's comparable batch, the market will go down on fears that an

Ed Yardeni

Performance Derby: Stocks YTD & In February

Mar 1, 2023 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 was up 3.4% ytd through the last day of February (chart). All of the 11 S&P 500 sectors with the exception of Information Technology gave back some of their January gains (or widened their losses) during February (chart). The market was discounting a soft landing in January. During February, the concern was an inflationary no-landing scenario. It's been a tug

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Feb 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 was up 16.9% from last year’s low of 3577.03 on October 12, 2022 through this year’s high of 4179.76 on February 2 (chart). We still view last year’s low as the end of the bear market that started on January 3, 2022. We believe that the rally since then is the start of a new bull market, though we

Stephen Rybka

S&P 500 Dividends Rise To Record High

Feb 23, 2023 2 min read paid

Dividends are like plants. Both grow. But dividends can grow forever, while the size of plants is limited. Notwithstanding last year's bear market, S&P 500 dividends grew to a record high of $562.9 billion during 2022 (chart). Dividends tend to fall during recessions along with profits. There was no recession last year. There may not be one this year. Money invested in the S&

Ed Yardeni

Breadth Is Looking Up

Feb 7, 2023 1 min read paid

First the bad news: Industry analysts are continuing to cut their earnings estimates for this year and next year (chart). Nevertheless, as of the February 2 week, the analysts collectively still were projecting an increase this year of 2.3% to $224.31 and an increase of 11.2% next year to $249.52. Those estimates are consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown in earnings this year and better growth next

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500's Comeback Kids

Feb 4, 2023 2 min read paid

In our opinion, the latest bear market started on January 3, 2022 and ended on October 12, 2022. The S&P 500 fell 25.4% over that 282-day span. The decline was led by a 30% drop in the forward P/E of the S&P 500 and a 6.2% increase in forward earnings over that period. At the beginning of last year, we expected a correction,

Ed Yardeni

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Market Call

April Is Coming

Bad Breadth Again

MegaCap-8 Stocks Are Outperforming Again

Market Call

Market Call

Market Call

Performance Derby: Stocks YTD & In February

Market Call

S&P 500 Dividends Rise To Record High

Breadth Is Looking Up

S&P 500's Comeback Kids