S&P 500

Powell's Hawkishness Boosts Bearishness

Nov 3, 2022 1 min read paid Featured

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference might have signaled his latest pivot, but this time it might be to his peak hawkishness. He said that the Fed will raise interest rates until there is convincing signs that inflation is abating, which hasn't happened so far. There will be no pause along the way and certainly no easing. The terminal federal funds rate in December's

Ed Yardeni

Powell Turns Even More Hawkish

Nov 2, 2022 2 min read Featured

During his press conference today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued to read from the Volcker 2.0 script. His punchline appeared in his prepared remarks: “[W]e still have some ways to go, and incoming data since our last meeting suggest that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.” During the Q&A portion of his presser, Powell repeated “some ways to go” several

Ed Yardeni

MegaCaps, ECB & ECI

Oct 25, 2022 1 min read

History shows that the Santa Claus rally usually starts during October. This year, the S&P 500 had a terrible September, falling 9.3%. Since the end of that month through today's close, the index is up 7.6%. It could be tough sledding for Santa over the rest of this week. After the close, Google missed earnings as YouTube's ad revenue disappointed. In addition,

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500: Why Today's Sizzle?

Oct 17, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 sizzled last week on Thursday. It fizzled on Friday. Why is it sizzling again today? On Friday, Reuters interviewed St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. As we observed in today's Morning Briefing, Bullard said that he favors “frontloading” hikes in the FFR, with a wait-and-see stance on 2023. In other words, he suggested that the Fed should go ahead with the widely expected

Ed Yardeni

Feshbach's Trading Call

Oct 16, 2022 1 min read paid

Joe Feshbach, our market consultant, is neutral about the short-term trading prospects for the S&P 500. He wasn’t surprised by Friday’s downward reversal of Thursday’s upside reversal. “The part that doesn’t fit and makes me uncomfortable is that breadth continues to be just awful, continually outperforming on the downside and underperforming on the upside.”

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Fizzles

Oct 14, 2022 1 min read

Thursday's impressive reversal-day rally fizzled today. The big banks reported their Q3 earnings results today. On balance, they were better than expected. However, yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI weighed on the bond market, even though today's retail sales was relatively weak. Our Blue Angels framework (chart below) shows that S&P 500 forward earnings have been relatively flat since it peaked in late June. The

Ed Yardeni

A Bad Week For Stocks

Sep 16, 2022 1 min read paid

This past week, the stock market took a dive on Tuesday following the release of August's CPI because its core rate rose 0.6%, twice as fast as expected. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 30bps during the week to 3.86% as investors continued to raise their projection of the peak federal funds rate during the current monetary tightening cycle. Friday was also a bad day for stocks

Ed Yardeni

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