Paid Calm Waters For Now Dec 3, 2022 2 min read paid The S&P 500 recovered nicely on Friday after it reacted badly to the morning's stronger-than-expected November payroll report, especially the higher-than-expected gain in wages. The knee-jerk reaction was that the end of the Fed's monetary tightening cycle would take longer to occur. But by the end of the day, the S&P 500 was down just 0.12% and remained above its 200-day Ed Yardeni
Public Santa's Month Nov 29, 2022 1 min read Since 1928, Decembers have had more up months and fewer down months for the S&P 500 than any other month of the year (chart). The average change in the S&P 500 during Septembers has been -1.1%, the worst of the months. That was followed by October (0.6%), November (0.8%), and December (1.1%). Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus rally. Santa' Ed Yardeni
Paid S&P 500's Two Great Performances Nov 13, 2022 2 min read paid Featured The latest bear market in stocks has had a couple of very impressive bear market rallies. The S&P 500 jumped 17.4% from June 16 through August 16 from 3666 to 4305. It is up 11.8% from October 12 through Friday's close from 3577 to 3956. It's interesting to compare the fall's great performance so far with the summer's: Ed Yardeni
Paid Put Today In A Bottle and Cork It Nov 10, 2022 2 min read paid Yes, we know: Today's amazing stock market rally might have been just a bear market rally. It might have been a short-covering rally that reflected the extreme pessimism among investors and speculators. Just yesterday, the market dropped sharply on a couple of big earnings misses, a meltdown in crypto, and disappointment among some investors that the red wave was more like a red ripple, though the Republicans are Ed Yardeni
Public A Happy Day Is Here Again For Stocks & Bonds Nov 10, 2022 1 min read Stocks and bonds rallied and the dollar fell after today's release of October's better-than-expected CPI. The headline rate was 7.7% y/y, lower than the 7.9% consensus and below September's reading of 8.2%. Leading the way down has been the CPI durable goods inflation rate, as we've been expecting (chart). We've been thinking that the bear market Ed Yardeni
Paid Powell's Hawkishness Boosts Bearishness Nov 3, 2022 1 min read paid Featured Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference might have signaled his latest pivot, but this time it might be to his peak hawkishness. He said that the Fed will raise interest rates until there is convincing signs that inflation is abating, which hasn't happened so far. There will be no pause along the way and certainly no easing. The terminal federal funds rate in December's Ed Yardeni
Public Powell Turns Even More Hawkish Nov 2, 2022 2 min read Featured During his press conference today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued to read from the Volcker 2.0 script. His punchline appeared in his prepared remarks: “[W]e still have some ways to go, and incoming data since our last meeting suggest that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.” During the Q&A portion of his presser, Powell repeated “some ways to go” several Ed Yardeni
Public MegaCaps, ECB & ECI Oct 25, 2022 1 min read History shows that the Santa Claus rally usually starts during October. This year, the S&P 500 had a terrible September, falling 9.3%. Since the end of that month through today's close, the index is up 7.6%. It could be tough sledding for Santa over the rest of this week. After the close, Google missed earnings as YouTube's ad revenue disappointed. In addition, Ed Yardeni
Public S&P 500: Why Today's Sizzle? Oct 17, 2022 2 min read The S&P 500 sizzled last week on Thursday. It fizzled on Friday. Why is it sizzling again today? On Friday, Reuters interviewed St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. As we observed in today's Morning Briefing, Bullard said that he favors “frontloading” hikes in the FFR, with a wait-and-see stance on 2023. In other words, he suggested that the Fed should go ahead with the widely expected Ed Yardeni
Paid Feshbach's Trading Call Oct 16, 2022 1 min read paid Joe Feshbach, our market consultant, is neutral about the short-term trading prospects for the S&P 500. He wasn’t surprised by Friday’s downward reversal of Thursday’s upside reversal. “The part that doesn’t fit and makes me uncomfortable is that breadth continues to be just awful, continually outperforming on the downside and underperforming on the upside.” Ed Yardeni
Public S&P 500 Fizzles Oct 14, 2022 1 min read Thursday's impressive reversal-day rally fizzled today. The big banks reported their Q3 earnings results today. On balance, they were better than expected. However, yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI weighed on the bond market, even though today's retail sales was relatively weak. Our Blue Angels framework (chart below) shows that S&P 500 forward earnings have been relatively flat since it peaked in late June. The Ed Yardeni
Paid A Bad Week For Stocks Sep 16, 2022 1 min read paid This past week, the stock market took a dive on Tuesday following the release of August's CPI because its core rate rose 0.6%, twice as fast as expected. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 30bps during the week to 3.86% as investors continued to raise their projection of the peak federal funds rate during the current monetary tightening cycle. Friday was also a bad day for stocks Ed Yardeni