SPX Earnings

MARKET CALL: Fly Us To The Moon

Oct 25, 2025 4 min read

The major stock market indexes rocketed to new record highs on Friday. We are raising the odds of a meltup from 25% to 30%, reducing the odds of our bullish base-case scenario from 55% to 50%, while leaving the bearish alternative scenario at 20%. In our base-case scenario, the S&P 500 stock price index rises to 7000 by the end of this year and 7700 by the end

Ed Yardeni

Apple & FedEx Spook the Market

Sep 29, 2022 1 min read

Halloween is a month away. The Q3 earnings season starts early next month. But analysts and investors are already getting spooked by a rotten Apple forecast and frightening guidance from FedEx: (1) Apple shares declined nearly 5% today as Bank of America cut its rating to neutral from buy (chart). It fell yesterday on a report that the company has told suppliers to scrap plans to increase iPhone 14 production.

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Revenues & Earnings At Record Highs

Aug 28, 2022 1 min read

Our weekly forward metrics for S&P 500 revenues, earnings, and the profit margin continue to accurately track their quarterly counterparts (chart below). Revenues and earnings both rose to record highs during Q2, up 12.1% and 9.5% y/y, respectively. Q2 earnings per share rose to a record $231. S&P 500's profit margin was 13.4% during Q2, near recent record highs. So

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Rally As Earnings Estimates Get Cut

Aug 11, 2022 1 min read

Go figure: When industry analysts raised their earnings estimates during the first half of the year, investors thought they were delusional. Investors proceeded to trash stocks because they feared a recession. Now that analysts are finally cutting their estimates, investors have been snapping up stocks since June 16 because they were cheap, especially now that recession fears have abated. The charts below show that analysts collectively have been reducing their

Ed Yardeni

Analysts Cutting Earnings Estimates

Aug 9, 2022 1 min read paid

Industry analysts weren't bullish enough about the Q2 earnings of the S&P 500. So far, 87% of S&P 500 companies have reported revenues and earnings for Q2. The revenue and earnings surprises are historically strong but near their lowest readings since the pandemic recovery began. Revenues are beating the consensus forecast by 2.8% and earnings by 6.0%.

Ed Yardeni

Q2 Earnings Season Is Unsurprising So Far

Aug 4, 2022 1 min read

As of mid-day Wednesday, 356 (or 71%) of the S&P 500 companies reported their Q2 results. Both the revenues and earnings surprises were positive, but relatively low for the third quarter in a row: (1) Revenues are beating the consensus forecast by 2.5%, and earnings have exceeded estimates by 5.6% so far (chart below). (2) Collectively, the companies have a y/y revenue gain of 15.

Ed Yardeni

From FODA To FOMO

Aug 3, 2022 1 min read

During the first half of this year, investors were driven by fear of delusional analysts (FODA). They believed that the analysts were much too optimistic about earnings. Now that the analysts are finally shaving their earnings estimates, FOMO (fear of missing out) is driving investors into a bullish frenzy. The S&P 500 is up 13.3% since it bottomed at 3666 on June 16. One week after it

Ed Yardeni

No Recession Yet In Forward Profit Margins

Jun 23, 2022 1 min read

Corporate profit margins always plunge during recessions. They aren't doing so at this time, thus raising doubts about the credibility of imminent-recession forecasts. We can monitor the profit margins of the S&P 500 along with its 11 sectors and 100+ industries on a weekly basis using forward profit margins derived as the ratio of forward earnings to forward revenues, which are time-weighted averages of the consensus

Ed Yardeni

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