Stocks

Some Good News From The Bond Market

Oct 3, 2023 2 min read

Hurray! The bond market will be closed next Monday for Columbus Day. It has done enough damage in recent weeks. Today, the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to 4.81% just because job openings edged up in August (chart). Nevertheless, we think the trend is still downward. The same goes for quits. Both are highly correlated with wage inflation as measured by average hourly earnings, which will be reported

Ed Yardeni

Why Is the Bond Yield Soaring?

Oct 2, 2023 2 min read paid

The latest batch of economic indicators was weaker than expected. On Friday, we learned that real personal consumption expenditures rose just 0.1% during August. The core PCED edged up by only 0.1% during the month. September’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell 1.4 points to 68.1. As a result, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is down to 47.3% from a recent high of 81.9%

Ed Yardeni

Core Inflation: The True Story

Jun 18, 2023 2 min read paid

A few of our QT members asked us to explain why core CPI inflation, which has been so sticky over the past year, should moderate over the rest of this year. The headline CPI inflation rate has dropped significantly since last summer from around 9.0% to 4.0% in May (chart). But the core inflation rate has been stuck around 6.00% since early last year. The core CPI

Ed Yardeni

Bonds Weigh On Stocks

Dec 27, 2022 1 min read paid

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose from a recent low of 3.425% on December 7 to 3.849% today, the highest since early November. We still believe it peaked at 4.248% on October 12. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasuries remained inverted at 50bps today. An inverted yield curve tends to coincide with the end of monetary policy tightening cycles and

Ed Yardeni

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Some Good News From The Bond Market

Why Is the Bond Yield Soaring?

Core Inflation: The True Story

Bonds Weigh On Stocks