Week Ahead

The Economic Week Ahead (August 22-26)

Aug 21, 2022 1 min read

The big event of the coming week will occur on Friday at 10:00 am EDT, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address the annual global central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Nothing much has changed since his press conference on July 27 other than that the S&P 500 is 7.8% higher. So he is likely to signal another rate hike in late September aimed at

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, August 1-5

Jul 31, 2022 2 min read paid

Can you believe it’s August already? This week, we’ll get lots of data on business activity, employment, consumers, housing, and construction. On balance, it should all be consistent with our growth recession scenario. Consider the following: (1) Business. On Monday, ISM’s M-PMI is likely to fall closer to 50.0. A similar index that we compile from the 5 regional Fed surveys was very weak last

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, July 25-29, 2022

Jul 24, 2022 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jam-packed with economic data that are likely to show weakening economic activity and some signs of peaking inflation. In addition, the latest FOMC statement, released Wednesday, will probably announce a 75bps rate hike. Now consider the following:

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 7/18/22

Jul 17, 2022 1 min read

The week ahead is a light one for economic indicators. Monday starts out with May's Treasury International Capital System data on net capital inflows into the US. April's data showed a near-record $1.5 trillion in private net capital inflows, which certainly explains why the dollar has been so strong. This is consistent with our TINAC theme, that "there is no alternative country"

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 7/11/22

Jul 10, 2022 1 min read

Inflation will be in focus on Wednesday, when June's CPI is released. Bloomberg is showing consensus estimates of up 1.1% (8.8% y/y) for the headline and 0.6% (5.8% y/y) for the core inflation rates. Such readings wouldn't clearly signal that inflation has peaked. There will be plenty of other inflation indicators this coming week: NY Fed's June survey

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 7/5/22

Jul 3, 2022 2 min read paid

Last week’s economic calendar was chock full of recessionary indicators. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is tracking Q2’s real GDP at -2.0% currently, following Q1’s actual decline of -1.6%. It increasingly looks like the economy has entered a mild recession. However, this week’s indicators, with the focus almost entirely on consumers, aren't likely to be definitive on this matter: (1) Demand for

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 6/27/22

Jun 25, 2022 2 min read

The week ahead is jam packed with June regional and national economic surveys. They are likely to confirm that we live in stagflationary times. Key consumer indicators are likely to show that Americans are spending less on goods, more on services, and much more on everything because of inflation. More specifically: (1) Among the biggies will be the national M-PMI on Friday, which is the first day of July.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 6/21/22

Jun 20, 2022 1 min read

The week ahead is a short one for the financial markets, and it is a light one for US economic indicators. But that doesn’t mean it will be a quiet week for the markets, since we live in volatile times. May data for existing home sales (to be released on Tuesday) and new home sales (on Friday) are likely to show that the housing market is falling deeper into

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 6/13/22

Jun 11, 2022 1 min read paid

A whole bunch of economic indicators to be released this coming week are likely to confirm that the economy is struggling with stagflation—i.e., high inflation with slow economic growth: (1) On the inflation front, May’s PPI will be out on Tuesday. That same day, the NFIB survey of small business owners will include data on the percentage raising their prices last month. The same goes for June’

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 6/6/2022

Jun 4, 2022 1 min read

On June 1, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that “fiscal stimulation is still in the pocketbooks of consumers. They are spending it.” We agree: Consumers have about $1 trillion in excess saving thanks to the government’s pandemic relief checks that weren’t spent. They’ve been dipping into that pool of money to offset the weakness in the purchasing power of their paychecks, which have been eroded by

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 5/7/22

May 30, 2022 1 min read

The week ahead is a big one for business surveys and for employment during May: (1) The last of the five regional Fed banks’ business surveys will be released on Tuesday. The four available ones showed a sharp slowdown in business activity, suggesting that Wednesday’s M-PMI will also be weak even though the flash M-PMI estimate remained strong. The regional surveys also showed that prices-paid and

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 5/23/22

May 22, 2022 1 min read

The week ahead will provide us with two more regional business surveys for May conducted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and KC.

Ed Yardeni

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