Week Ahead

The Economic Week Ahead, June 5-9

Jun 4, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a very light week for economic indicators. In addition, the Federal Open Mouth Committee will be silent until their blackout period ends after the FOMC meets on June 14 and 15. On the other hand, now that the debt ceiling deal was signed into law Saturday by President Joe Biden, the US Treasury will flood the fixed income markets with lots of securities to refill its checking

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 30-June 2

May 29, 2023 2 min read paid

Now that a debt deal is on the verge of becoming a done deal, the markets can focus on economic growth and inflation. This week will be a big one for labor market indicators. May's consumer confidence survey (Tue) will include a series for "jobs plentiful." The latter is highly correlated with the JOLTS report's "job openings" series to be released with

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 22-26

May 20, 2023 2 min read paid

On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that monetary policy is "restrictive." So Fed policy will be data-dependent, particularly so on inflation indicators. For those of us in the "pause" camp, he seemed to suggest that's possible. He acknowledged that the banking crisis is bound to tighten credit conditions reducing the need for the Fed to get more restrictive. That's been our

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 15-19

May 13, 2023 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with coincident and leading economic indicators. The most up-to-the-minute ones will be May 12 mortgage applications (Wed) and May 13 jobless claims (Thu). The former seems to be bottoming suggesting that April housing starts (Wed) and existing home sales (Thu) might surprise to the upside, or at least not on the downside (chart) On a four-week moving average basis, jobless claims have moved higher recently

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 1-5

Apr 29, 2023 1 min read paid

This is another big week for earnings reports, which have been mostly better than expected so far. In addition, the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds his après-meeting presser at 2:30 p.m. In our opinion, it's a toss-up whether the Fed will do none or one 25bps rate hike. But our subjective odds of an announced pause is 75% either

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 24-28

Apr 23, 2023 1 min read paid

This week is jampacked with economic indicators and earnings reports. The BIGGEST numbers will come out on Friday for the PCED and ECI inflation rates. Both should show that inflation remains high but is continuing to moderate. The ECI wage inflation rate was 5.1% during Q4. We know that AHE fell to 4.2% y/y during March (chart). Q1's preliminary real GDP (Thu) is tracking at

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 17-21

Apr 16, 2023 2 min read paid

This is a light week for economic indicators, but there will be plenty of earnings calls to keep investors busy. We will be focusing on the two regional business surveys for April released by the FRBNY (Mon) and the Philly Fed (Thu). Together, they tend to foretell the outcome of the three other regional business surveys released later this month as well as the national M-PMI (out early next month)

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, March 5-10

Mar 5, 2023 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Fed's semiannual monetary policy report to two congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday. He is likely to say that although there are signs of disinflation, inflation remains too high and the Fed still has lots of work to do to bring it down. Powell's favorite labor market indicator, i.e., job openings, will be out on Wednesday for

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, January 17-20

Jan 16, 2023 2 min read paid

We expect that more of the Fed's talking heads will be talking this week about monetary policy perhaps with a bit less agreement of what needs to be done next. They only have three days to do so before the FOMC blackout period begins. The Q4-2022 earnings reporting season continues this week. More important than the quarter's results will be managements' guidance for this year.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 3-7

Oct 2, 2022 1 min read

Good news in the labor market is now bad news for the bond and stock markets because it gives the Fed more leeway to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation. This week's labor market indicators include August's JOLTS (Tue.) and both September's ADP Private Payrolls (Wed.) and the BLS Employment Situation (Fri.). Last weeks low jobless claims number suggests that labor demand continues to

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, September 26-30

Sep 25, 2022 1 min read

The blackout period is over for the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee. This week, we can expect that many of the Fed's talking heads will repeat the hawkish remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his presser last Wednesday, i.e., monetary policy needs to be more restrictive to bring down inflation. The week ahead is also jam packed with economic indicators: (1) Consumers &

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, September 12-16

Sep 10, 2022 1 min read

It's another action packed week ahead. On the inflation front, we are expecting that, on Monday, the FRB-NY survey of consumer inflationary expectations will show some moderation, reflecting the plunge in gasoline prices, while food inflation remained elevated. On Tuesday, August's CPI should do the same. August's NFIB survey of small business owners (released on Wednesday) is likely to show that lots of them

Ed Yardeni

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