Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 132)

What Is The Stock Market Discounting Today?

Oct 28, 2022 1 min read paid

The stock market is ripping this morning despite disappointing earnings reported by some of the S&P 500's MegaCaps this week. Why? Consider the following: (1) Today's inflation reports (for the ECI and PCED) suggest that it is peaking, though not for sure. (2) Inflation-adjusted consumer spending continues to move higher albeit slowly and led by services as spending on goods has flattened in

Ed Yardeni

Another Weak Regional Business Survey

Oct 27, 2022 1 min read Featured

With the exception of the 2.6% (saar) increase in Q3's real GDP, the other more forward-looking economic indicators released today were on the weak side. That might explain why the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields eased a bit this morning. In the stock market, some of the mega money that is coming out of the MegaCap-8 today is going into the DJIA-30.

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Float As 2-Year Yield & Dollar Sink

Oct 26, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 bottomed this morning around 10 a.m. about 1% below yesterday's close on earnings misses by Alphabet and Microsoft. But it quickly popped back up to the surface, so it now is floating slightly above yesterday's close as of 11 a.m. The trading day isn't over, but there is an interesting dynamic playing out in the markets: (1)

Ed Yardeni

MegaCaps, ECB & ECI

Oct 25, 2022 1 min read

History shows that the Santa Claus rally usually starts during October. This year, the S&P 500 had a terrible September, falling 9.3%. Since the end of that month through today's close, the index is up 7.6%. It could be tough sledding for Santa over the rest of this week. After the close, Google missed earnings as YouTube's ad revenue disappointed. In addition,

Ed Yardeni

US Turning Into Net Exporter Of Petroleum

Oct 24, 2022 1 min read paid

On October 11, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that the US should pump more oil amid the world's energy crisis, just days after OPEC+ agreed to a production cut that is equivalent to 2% of the global supply. In a CNBC interview, he said that "America is the swing producer, not Saudi Arabia." We agree. Notwithstanding the Biden administration's hostility to domestic fossil fuel

Ed Yardeni

MegaCap-8 and a Trading Call Update

Oct 24, 2022 1 min read Featured

The MegaCap-8 are still the largest yachts in the ocean. These eight stocks currently account for 23% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 index and 46% of the S&P 500 Growth index (chart). This week, five of them--Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, and Amazon--are set to report their earnings. (The other three are Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla.) Their managements will provide insights

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/24/22

Oct 24, 2022 1 min read paid

Both the bearish and bullish cases for the stock market currently boil down to how the economy responds to the tectonic monetary policy adjustment from unconventionally ultra-easy to conventionally tight, a.k.a. “The Great Monetary Policy Reversal.” Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Lots Of Explanations For Current Labor Shortage

Oct 23, 2022 6 min read paid Featured

Sure, Covid caused many workers to leave the workforce owing to health concerns or for caregiving purposes. But it’s not the only reason for the depressed US labor-force participation rate. Now that the pandemic has abated, life has normalized, but labor-force participation hasn’t. In September, the participation rate was merely 62.3%, over a full percentage point below the level just before the pandemic, in February

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, October 24-28

Oct 22, 2022 1 min read paid

The Q3 earnings reporting season will get most of the attention this week from equity investors. Fortunately, we all get a break from the "Federal Open Mouth Committee" until November 4! But we will all be thinking about how the FOMC might react to this week's stats.

Ed Yardeni

Fed May Be Dialing Back On Hawkish Squawking

Oct 22, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 rallied 2.37% to 3,752.75 on Friday as the 2-year US Treasury note yield fell to 4.50% from 4.61% on Thursday (chart). The happy day's performance was sparked by Friday's WSJ article titled "Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes." It was written by the Journal&

Ed Yardeni

Trick Or Treat For U.S. Treasury Market?

Oct 21, 2022 2 min read paid

Halloween has come early to the US Treasury securities market. Fed officials have been scrambling in recent days to scare investors almost every day in speeches declaring that they will continue to raise the federal funds rate (FFR) until inflation breaks. They are going trick-or-treating now because they won't be able to do so during Halloween which falls in their "blackout period" starting Saturday

Ed Yardeni

Loose Lips Sink Bonds & Stocks

Oct 20, 2022 2 min read paid

The members of the FOMC ("Federal Open Mouth Committee") continue to sink prices in the fixed-income markets. The 2-year Treasury yield soared to 4.62% today, while the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.24% (chart). The S&P 500 rallied through mid-morning, but then fell the rest of the day to 3665.78, just below the June 16 low. Triggering today'

Ed Yardeni

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