Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 135)

Trick Or Treat For U.S. Treasury Market?

Oct 21, 2022 2 min read paid

Halloween has come early to the US Treasury securities market. Fed officials have been scrambling in recent days to scare investors almost every day in speeches declaring that they will continue to raise the federal funds rate (FFR) until inflation breaks. They are going trick-or-treating now because they won't be able to do so during Halloween which falls in their "blackout period" starting Saturday

Ed Yardeni

Loose Lips Sink Bonds & Stocks

Oct 20, 2022 2 min read paid

The members of the FOMC ("Federal Open Mouth Committee") continue to sink prices in the fixed-income markets. The 2-year Treasury yield soared to 4.62% today, while the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.24% (chart). The S&P 500 rallied through mid-morning, but then fell the rest of the day to 3665.78, just below the June 16 low. Triggering today'

Ed Yardeni

Mid-Term Elections Tend To Be Consistently Bullish

Oct 20, 2022 1 min read

In Tuesday's QuickTakes, we observed that since 1928, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% on average during September, by far the worst performance of any month. October, November, and December were up 0.5%, 0.6%, and 1.4% on average. We concluded: "Yes, Virginia, there really is a Santa Claus rally. Apparently, it tends to be even more likely during mid-term election years.

Ed Yardeni

The Housing Recession Deepens

Oct 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Fed officials have described the housing downturn as a "correction." For example, in an October 6 speech, Fed Governor Christopher J Waller said, "While this market correction could be fairly mild, I cannot dismiss the possibility of a much larger drop in demand and house prices before the market normalizes." He also said that "after mortgage rates stabilize, their drag on housing demand should ebb.

Ed Yardeni

Bull-Bear Ratio Still Under 1.00

Oct 19, 2022 1 min read paid

The Bull-Bear Ratio was below 1.00 for the fifth successive week this week, edging up to 0.78 after falling steadily from 1.15 in mid-September to 0.57 last week—which was the lowest since March 2009. Bullish sentiment increased for the first time in five weeks, to 31.3%, after falling the prior four weeks from 32.4% to 25.0%—which was the fewest

Ed Yardeni

Yes, Virginia, There Really Is a Santa Claus Rally

Oct 18, 2022 1 min read

Since 1928, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% on average during September, by far the worst performance of any month. October, November, and December were up 0.5%, 0.6%, and 1.4% on average (chart). Yes, Virginia, there really is a Santa Claus rally. Apparently, it tends to be even more likely during mid-term election years. A September 23 post on TheStreet reported, "According to

Ed Yardeni

No Recession In Banking & Production

Oct 18, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P had another good day today following relatively upbeat reports from the banks about their business. The two largest banks in America say that the economy is still growing. On Monday, BOA CEO Brian Moynihan said, “Consumers are spending, they have money, they are employed and they have good credit.” On Friday, at the end of last week, even JPM CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged, "Consumers are

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/17/22

Oct 17, 2022 1 min read

More persistently pernicious inflation than expected is at the root of the financial market’s bearish sentiment. Revenues, profit margins, and earnings have been holding up relatively well; the market’s big problem is a significant downward rerating of the P/E multiples that investors are willing to pay in this inflationary economic environment. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500: Why Today's Sizzle?

Oct 17, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 sizzled last week on Thursday. It fizzled on Friday. Why is it sizzling again today? On Friday, Reuters interviewed St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. As we observed in today's Morning Briefing, Bullard said that he favors “frontloading” hikes in the FFR, with a wait-and-see stance on 2023. In other words, he suggested that the Fed should go ahead with the

Ed Yardeni

Feshbach's Trading Call

Oct 16, 2022 1 min read paid

Joe Feshbach, our market consultant, is neutral about the short-term trading prospects for the S&P 500. He wasn’t surprised by Friday’s downward reversal of Thursday’s upside reversal. “The part that doesn’t fit and makes me uncomfortable is that breadth continues to be just awful, continually outperforming on the downside and underperforming on the upside.”

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Oct. 17-21

Oct 15, 2022 1 min read paid

Investors will focus on this week's batch of Q3 earnings reports and forward earnings guidance from Corporate America. They'll also be watching interest rates which might be buffeted by more loose lips on the "Federal Open Mouth Committee." The FOMC's blackout period doesn't start until Friday. The only inflation news this week will be included in October's regional

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: A Rolling Recession Is Underway

Oct 14, 2022 3 min read paid

Debbie and I have said it before: “The next recession may be the most anticipated recession of all times.” We have a reason to say it again: Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase yesterday said a recession is coming. The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated October 12, 2022.

Ed Yardeni

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