Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 136)

Lots Of Jobs, But...

Sep 2, 2022 1 min read

This morning's jobs report for August was a good one even though the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. It did so because 786,000 workers entered the labor force, while the household measure of employment rose 442,000. The new entrants shouldn't have any problem finding jobs, while an increase in job seekers may take the pressure off employers to raise wages

Ed Yardeni

August's M-PMI: More Stag & Less Flation

Sep 1, 2022 1 min read paid

August's M-PMI provides confirmation of our economic outlook including a growth recession and moderating inflationary pressures. On balance, it should have been bullish for both bonds and stocks this morning, but the prices of both are down. That's because, today is the first day that the Fed is ramping up QT2, i.e., letting its balance sheet shrink by $95 billion per month. The composite

Ed Yardeni

Europeans Are In A Foul Mood

Aug 31, 2022 1 min read

The Eurozone's Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) slipped further below 100.0 to 97.6 during August (chart below). This indicates that the growth rate of the region's real GDP could turn negative during the second half of this year, or early next year. European are scrambling to store natural gas for the winter because they fear that Putin will cut off Russian exports of the fuel

Ed Yardeni

Fed Wants To See Fewer Help Wanted Signs

Aug 30, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell just below its 50-day moving average today partly because the labor market remains hot. July's JOLTS report showed that there were 11.2 million job openings for 5.7 million of the unemployed (chart below). In addition, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rebounded slightly from July's low as only 11.4% of CCI survey respondents said jobs are hard

Ed Yardeni

August's CPI Likely to Confirm Inflation Peaking

Aug 30, 2022 1 min read

August's CPI report will be released on September 13. It is likely to show that inflation is continuing to moderate. We know that the pump price of gasoline fell sharply this month (chart below). We also know that the wholesale price of used cars fell during August, suggesting that the CPI for used cars fell this month (chart below). These two components of the CPI were among the

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/29/22

Aug 29, 2022 1 min read

Keeping track of whether Fed Chair Powell is dovish or hawkish is making us dizzy. His latest clues—dropped at last week’s Jackson Hole conference—reversed the dovish impression he’d left in July that caused stocks to rally. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. So stocks pivoted

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Revenues & Earnings At Record Highs

Aug 28, 2022 1 min read

Our weekly forward metrics for S&P 500 revenues, earnings, and the profit margin continue to accurately track their quarterly counterparts (chart below). Revenues and earnings both rose to record highs during Q2, up 12.1% and 9.5% y/y, respectively. Q2 earnings per share rose to a record $231. S&P 500's profit margin was 13.4% during Q2, near recent record highs. So

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead (Aug. 29-Sept. 2)

Aug 28, 2022 1 min read paid

Time marches on! September is almost here. The week ahead is packed with employment data starting with July's JOLTS (Tues.), jobless claims (Thurs.), and August's employment report (Fri.). August's consumer confidence survey (Tues.) will also provide insights into the availability of jobs.

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Fugetaboutit Speech

Aug 27, 2022 1 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell did pivot on Friday morning at Jackson Hole in his 8-minute speech on the outlook for monetary policy. He turned much more hawkish than the financial markets expected. In his short talk, he managed to walk back any hint of dovishness he might have conveyed during his previous public appearance in a press conference on July 27. Back then, his often ambiguous off-the-cuff

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Speech: Short & Hawkish

Aug 26, 2022 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech today at the Fed's Jackson Hole conference was short and hawkish. He reiterated that the Fed's job is to bring inflation down even though doing so is bound to weigh on economic growth and cause some weakness in the labor market. He quashed any lingering expectations that the Fed would pause its tightening and might lower interest rates next

Ed Yardeni

The Calm Before The Storm?

Aug 25, 2022 1 min read

They say that the stock market tends to climb a wall of worry. It has been doing just that since the S&P 500 bottomed at 3666.77 on June 16. It rose 1.4% today even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference tomorrow, and might sound more hawkish to compensate for sounding too dovish at his prior speaking

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Tug-Of-War Continues Between the Bulls & The Bears

Aug 25, 2022 4 min read paid

The latest bear market started on January 3, 2022, when the S&P 500 peaked at a record-high 4796.56. That’s undisputable. But whether the bear market ended on June 16 at a closing low of 3666.77 is a question of great dispute. The bulls, including Joe and me, think so. The bears believe that the bear market isn’t over and that new lows are

Ed Yardeni

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