Ed Yardeni

Leading Indicators Seeing Recession Next Spring

Nov 23, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Housing: Multi-Family Boom vs Single-Family Bust

Nov 22, 2022 1 min read paid

Single-family housing activity is falling into a recession. Single-family housing starts fell 29.5% ytd through October. Housing downturns have been major contributors to most recessions in the past. This time, though, strength in multi-family starts is offsetting some of the weakness in single-family starts. Single-family starts has accounted for only 51% of residential construction put in place over the past 10 years, down from close to 70% prior to

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: US Is A Net Exporter Of Fossil Fuels

Nov 21, 2022 2 min read paid

Climate activists believed that if governments were to impose regulations that limit fossil fuel production, fossil fuel prices would rise, encouraging more usage of renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, government support still would be needed to make renewable sources cost competitive. That reality combined with geopolitical developments have made the transition from fossil to renewable fuels far less smooth than climate activists had assumed. This is an excerpt from our Nov

Ed Yardeni

Feshbach's Market Call

Nov 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Here is Joe Feshbach’s latest call on the market: “On Wednesday of last week, we had one of those crazy-high put/call ratios which halted the big decline in the Nasdaq the next day. Unfortunately, the ratio didn’t remain high and quickly returned to neutral.

Ed Yardeni

Risk Off In Last Week's Performance Derby

Nov 19, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 went nowhere fast last week, dropping 0.7% to 3965, putting it in between its 200-day moving average of 4053 and its 50-dma of 3790 (chart and table). Hanging over the market is that investors seem to be hanging on to every word of the participants of the FOMC (a.k.a., the "Federal Open Mouth Committee"). The economy is doing relatively well,

Ed Yardeni

FTX Crash Isn't Stressing US Credit System

Nov 18, 2022 2 min read

Earlier last week, crypto exchange FTX had to deny customer withdrawal requests of about $5 billion. FTX lent about $10 billion of customers’ funds to Alameda Research for trading purposes. John Ray III is the new CEO of FTX. He was the man who cleaned up the mess at Enron. He says the situation at FTX is even worse, describing what he calls a “complete failure” of corporate control. (Here

Ed Yardeni

On A Wing & A Prayer

Nov 17, 2022 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Foreigners Still Piling Into US Dollar & Bonds

Nov 16, 2022 1 min read

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield dropped sharply from 4.25% on October 24 to 3.72% today. Recent CPI and PPI readings suggest that inflation is peaking, though it clearly remains high. Furthermore, Fed officials seem to agree that the federal funds rate needs to be raised closer to 5.00%. Then they intend to keep the federal funds rate at the terminal rate for a prolonged period of

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Aren't In the Mood for a Recession

Nov 16, 2022 1 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth during Q4 is 4.4% today, up from 4.0% on November 9. After this morning’s retail sales report showed a solid 1.3% October gain, the nowcast of Q4 real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 4.2% to 4.8%.

Ed Yardeni

Going Fishing For Stock & Bond Market Bottoms

Nov 15, 2022 2 min read

Last Thursday’s lower-than-expected CPI inflation rate for October was greeted with a huge rally by stock and bond investors. They continued to discount the possibility that inflation has peaked and is heading lower following today’s PPI report for October. As a result, they seem to be concluding that the Fed’s monetary policy tightening cycle will be peaking sooner rather than later, with a terminal federal funds rate

Ed Yardeni

Ups & Downs Of Inflation

Nov 15, 2022 2 min read paid Featured

We certainly aren’t out of the inflation woods yet, but we do seem to be heading in the right direction to get out of this dark forest. Let’s review the latest batch of inflation indicators, starting with two disappointing ones: (1) Inflation expectations uptick. On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its October survey of inflation expectations of Americans. It headed in the wrong way,

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/14/22

Nov 14, 2022 1 min read

Economic recessions invariably produce earnings recessions, but earnings slowdowns and downturns can occur without economic recessions: Nominal GDP and revenues growth can stay strong as profit margins narrow, causing earnings growth to falter. That’s what seems to be happening now, with the earnings weakness looking like that of a soft, not hard, landing. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post

Ed Yardeni

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