Ed Yardeni

The Bears' Two Favorite Charts

May 8, 2023 2 min read paid

To support their pessimistic outlook, bearish prognosticators tend to focus on two charts. The first one shows the S&P 500 versus the securities held by the Fed, which account for most of the Fed’s balance sheet (chart). They contend that the bull market in stocks from 2009 through 2021 was driven by the Fed’s various quantitative easing programs. The S&P 500 peaked at a

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Tug of War

May 7, 2023 2 min read paid

The bulls and the bears continue their tug of war with the S&P 500 fluctuating around 4000 since last summer (chart). The index rebounded off its 50-dma on Friday. The 200-dma has been crawling higher since the start of this year. In mid-March, when the banking crisis started, the breadth of the market narrowed as evidenced by the drop in the ratio of the S&P 500

Ed Yardeni

Hard to Have a Hard Landing When Employment Is Growing

May 7, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 rallied on Friday following yet another stronger-than-expected employment report. In his press conference on Wednesday, May 3, Fed Chair Jerome Powell observed: “It’s interesting [that] we’ve raised rates by 5 percentage points in 14 months, and the unemployment rate is 3½% pretty much where it was, even lower than where it was, when we started.” On Friday, we learned that the unemployment rate

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 8-12

May 6, 2023 2 min read paid

Another interesting week ahead. On Monday, the Fed will release the latest Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey (SLOOS). It is likely to show a further sharp tightening in lending standards, especially for commercial real estate loans (chart). The members of the FOMC had a copy of the SLOOS report at their meeting last week, but decided to raise the federal funds rate nonetheless. They may come to regret their last

Ed Yardeni

Keep Your Seatbelt on and Get a Neck Brace

May 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 rallied along with regional bank stocks today. It found support yesterday at its 50-day moving average. Shares of Western Alliance, Comerica, and Zions Bancorp were upgraded to the equivalent of a buy recommendation by analysts at JP Morgan. They said "with too many on one side of the boat, we move to the middle." Also giving the market a lift: Apple's

Ed Yardeni

No Boom, No Bust

May 4, 2023 2 min read paid

Our Boom-Bust Barometer (BBB) fell into an unprecedented abyss during the pandemic lockdown in early 2020 (chart). Our BBB is the ratio of the CRB raw industrials spot price index to initial unemployment claims on a weekly basis. It is a very useful high-frequency business cycle indicator. Like the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), it tends to peak at the tail end of booms and to bottom at the

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Plateau

May 3, 2023 2 min read

The current consensus in the financial markets seems to be that the FOMC is done hiking the federal funds rate (FFR) after having raised it today by 25bps to 5.00%-5.25%. Furthermore, markets seem to be anticipating that the FFR will be falling soon. That's consistent with the widely held view that a recession is coming soon. It isn't consistent with Fed Chair Jerome

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/3/23

May 3, 2023

The rolling recession continues to roll through the economy, but will the banking crisis cause it to turn into an economy-wide recession? Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date.

Ed Yardeni

Markets' Message to the Fed: Just Say No to More Rate Hikes

May 2, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market sent a message to the FOMC today: Cease and desist from any more rate hikes, please. The stock market selloff was led by another rout of the Financials sectors of the S&P 1500. Here is what they did today and since March 8, the day before SVB imploded: S&P 500 LargeCaps (-2.3%, -7.3%), S&P 400 MidCaps (-3.2, -14.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Fiscal Policy - A Trillion Here, a Trillion There

May 1, 2023 3 min read paid

We have been on Wall Street as economists and strategists for more than 40 years. Over that entire period, doomsters have been scribbling away, producing lots of articles and books about the US federal deficits and debt. The only pause in their doom and gloom was during the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the federal government ran a surplus for a brief time. Nevertheless, while the annual federal deficits

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: May Is Coming

Apr 30, 2023 3 min read

Tomorrow will be May 1. We all know that April showers bring May flowers. There's also an old adage that advises stock investors to go away in May and come back in October. It worked last year, though January was the right month to go away. The first part of this adage often worked. The problem is that the second part has been less reliable. Sometimes, when the

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 1-5

Apr 29, 2023 1 min read paid

This is another big week for earnings reports, which have been mostly better than expected so far. In addition, the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds his après-meeting presser at 2:30 p.m. In our opinion, it's a toss-up whether the Fed will do none or one 25bps rate hike. But our subjective odds of an announced pause is 75% either

Ed Yardeni

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