Public Yield Curve Spread Signaling Rate Peak Nov 27, 2022 2 min read The yield curve spread between the 2-year US Treasury note and the 10-year US Treasury bond is a leading indictor of several cyclical financial and economic developments. It tends to invert (i.e., to turn negative) before economic downturns (chart). So it tends to predict recessions. We think that yield curve inversions actually predict that the Fed's monetary policy is getting too tight, which could trigger a financial Ed Yardeni
Public China's Zero-Covid Policy Is A Disaster Nov 24, 2022 1 min read Investors are hoping that the Chinese government will soon ease its zero-Covid policies. The facts on the ground suggest that the latest wave of the pandemic is getting worse in China and that the government is continuing to respond with more lockdowns and other severe restrictions (chart). Japanese brokerage firm Nomura estimates that more than a fifth of the country is under restricted movement. This is weighing on China' Ed Yardeni
Public Happy Thanksgiving Nov 24, 2022 We at the Yardeni Research family wish you and your families a Happy Thanksgiving. We are thankful for your interest in our research service. Ed Yardeni
Paid Housing: Multi-Family Boom vs Single-Family Bust Nov 22, 2022 1 min read paid Single-family housing activity is falling into a recession. Single-family housing starts fell 29.5% ytd through October. Housing downturns have been major contributors to most recessions in the past. This time, though, strength in multi-family starts is offsetting some of the weakness in single-family starts. Single-family starts has accounted for only 51% of residential construction put in place over the past 10 years, down from close to 70% prior to Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: US Is A Net Exporter Of Fossil Fuels Nov 21, 2022 2 min read paid Climate activists believed that if governments were to impose regulations that limit fossil fuel production, fossil fuel prices would rise, encouraging more usage of renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, government support still would be needed to make renewable sources cost competitive. That reality combined with geopolitical developments have made the transition from fossil to renewable fuels far less smooth than climate activists had assumed. This is an excerpt from our Nov Ed Yardeni
Paid Feshbach's Market Call Nov 19, 2022 1 min read paid Here is Joe Feshbach’s latest call on the market: “On Wednesday of last week, we had one of those crazy-high put/call ratios which halted the big decline in the Nasdaq the next day. Unfortunately, the ratio didn’t remain high and quickly returned to neutral. Ed Yardeni
Paid Risk Off In Last Week's Performance Derby Nov 19, 2022 1 min read paid The S&P 500 went nowhere fast last week, dropping 0.7% to 3965, putting it in between its 200-day moving average of 4053 and its 50-dma of 3790 (chart and table). Hanging over the market is that investors seem to be hanging on to every word of the participants of the FOMC (a.k.a., the "Federal Open Mouth Committee"). The economy is doing relatively well, Ed Yardeni
Public FTX Crash Isn't Stressing US Credit System Nov 18, 2022 2 min read Earlier last week, crypto exchange FTX had to deny customer withdrawal requests of about $5 billion. FTX lent about $10 billion of customers’ funds to Alameda Research for trading purposes. John Ray III is the new CEO of FTX. He was the man who cleaned up the mess at Enron. He says the situation at FTX is even worse, describing what he calls a “complete failure” of corporate control. (Here Ed Yardeni
Public Foreigners Still Piling Into US Dollar & Bonds Nov 16, 2022 1 min read The 10-year US Treasury bond yield dropped sharply from 4.25% on October 24 to 3.72% today. Recent CPI and PPI readings suggest that inflation is peaking, though it clearly remains high. Furthermore, Fed officials seem to agree that the federal funds rate needs to be raised closer to 5.00%. Then they intend to keep the federal funds rate at the terminal rate for a prolonged period of Ed Yardeni
Paid Consumers Aren't In the Mood for a Recession Nov 16, 2022 1 min read paid The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth during Q4 is 4.4% today, up from 4.0% on November 9. After this morning’s retail sales report showed a solid 1.3% October gain, the nowcast of Q4 real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 4.2% to 4.8%. Ed Yardeni