Paid The Economic Week Ahead, Jan. 30 - Feb. 3 Jan 29, 2023 1 min read paid The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. Odds are the committee will vote for a 25bps federal funds rate hike to 4.50%-4.75%. Odds are that Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his Wednesday afternoon presser will continue to sound hawkish even though economic growth is slowing and inflation is moderating. This week will also be jampacked with employment indicators. January's Consumer Confidence (Tue) is likely to Ed Yardeni
Public Market Call Jan 28, 2023 1 min read Here is Joe Feshbach's latest take on the S&P 500: "The index is getting closer to its two previous highs of 4100,and thus a possible break above that level." That's been his target at the beginning of this rally and he sees "no reason to alter it." He adds, "The sentiment numbers just do not support a big Ed Yardeni
Paid Inflation: From Pitbull To Poodle? Jan 27, 2023 2 min read paid Inflation continues to moderate. In early 2022, we predicted that the headline PCED inflation rate would decline from 6%-7% during H1-2022 to 4%-5% during H2-2022 to 3%-4% in 2023. So far, so good (chart). It fell from a peak of 7% during June of last year to 5% by the end of the year. Ed Yardeni
Public Q4 GDP Report Was Weak & Inflation Moderated Jan 26, 2023 2 min read The headlines in the financial press today suggested that Q4's real GDP was strong. On closer inspection, it was relatively weak and consistent with our view that the economy has been in a "rolling recession" since early last year when the Fed started to tighten monetary policy. Real GDP rose 2.9% (saar) following 3.2% during Q3 (chart). However, real final sales of domestic product Ed Yardeni
Paid How's Business In The US & Europe? Jan 25, 2023 1 min read paid We predict that global economic growth will improve this year. Until recently that was a contrary view since it was widely expected that the US, Europe, and China would fall into recessions this year. Now there is growing optimism about the outlook for Europe and China. The consensus outlook for the US remains relatively pessimistic. Ed Yardeni
Public Why Is Gold Shining Again? Jan 24, 2023 1 min read Gold is a commodity priced in dollars. Like other commodities priced in dollars, the gold price is inversely correlated with the trade-weighted dollar (chart). The former has been rebounding since late last year as the dollar has been weakening on expectations that the Fed is almost done raising interest rates. The price of gold tends to track the underlying trend in commodity prices (chart). So its recent rebound suggests that Ed Yardeni
Paid Less Inflation & Growth In Three Regional Surveys Jan 24, 2023 1 min read paid We now have three business surveys for January conducted by the NY, Philly, and Richmond Fed district banks. Collectively, they are showing less economic growth and lower inflation. The average of their general business indexes dropped further into negative territory this month, suggesting that the M-PMI also fell further below 50.0 this month (chart). Ed Yardeni
Paid Good Breadth Jan 23, 2023 2 min read paid One of the best market timers we know is Joe Feshbach. We were colleagues at Prudential-Bache Securities during the 1980s. I’ve been summarizing his views on a weekly basis since the beginning of last year. Here are his latest thoughts he shared with me, this past weekend: “The good news is the market got bumpy as predicted, and it lasted a whole two days. The chart I’ve been Ed Yardeni
Public Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/23/23 Jan 23, 2023 1 min read Brace yourself for December’s Leading Economic Indicators and Coincident Economic Indicators coming out today. They are likely to trigger another recession alarm. But we still see greater odds of a soft landing (60%) than a hard one (40%). Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. What can the LEI Ed Yardeni
Paid The Economic Week Ahead: January 23-27 Jan 22, 2023 2 min read paid The Federal Open Mouth Committee is giving us a break. Their blackout period started on Saturday. We won't hear from them again until February 1 at 2:30 p.m. That's when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a presser following the latest FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, corporate managements will have a lot to say during their current earnings reporting season. This week is packed with potentially Ed Yardeni
Public And the Winner Is ... Jan 21, 2023 1 min read When comparing the performance of various stock market indexes, the financial press tends to focus on just a few including the S&P 500 index that is market-cap weighted rather than equal weighted and excludes dividends. The following performance derby table shows what a difference these two other factors can make. It sorts the percent changes in the various indexes shown since January 3, 2022 through Friday's Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: Pessimistic Consensus Jan 20, 2023 6 min read paid It’s hard to be a contrarian for very long these days because the consensus seems to change so quickly. At the end of last year, there seemed to be widespread agreement that the first half of 2023 would continue to be bad for stocks as the Fed continues to raise interest rates and the market discounts a recession during H2-2023. The bear market in stocks was expected to continue Ed Yardeni