Inflation

Is inflation transitory, or will it be persistent and even protracted? This is the key question many investors and business managers are struggling to answer. These QuickTakes aim to assess the answer based on the latest data on prices and wages.

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DEEP DIVE: More on Inflation & Stocks

May 13, 2022 4 min read paid

Strategy I: 1987-Style Bear Market? I’ve recently been asked when was the last time we had a P/E-led bear market while earnings continued to increase. Note: The following is an excerpt from a recent YRI Morning Briefing. The obvious answer is 1987. Our monthly Blue Angels framework, which starts in late 1978, shows that the S&P 500 dropped 33.5% from August 25, 1987 through December

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Inflation Boosts Earnings & Depresses Valuation

May 12, 2022 3 min read paid

Over the past year, inflation has been having a positive impact on analysts’ consensus forecasts for earnings in 2022 and 2023 but a negative impact on the valuation multiple that investors are willing to pay for those earnings estimates. Needless to say, the former positive effect has been trumped by the latter negative effect. The negative impact reflects the jump in bond yields so far, concerns that bond yields will

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Inflation Tends To Be Spikey

May 7, 2022 3 min read paid

Why is the 10-year Treasury bond yield only around 3.00% when the latest headline CPI and PCED inflation rates were 8.5% y/y and 6.6% y/y? Why would bond investors willingly lock in such a painful negative real return?

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Showing First Signs of Peaking

May 6, 2022 2 min read paid

We are on the lookout for signs that inflation might be peaking. It’s hard to find any when we look at the price and wage data on a y/y basis. However, there are hopeful signs in numerous 3-month percent changes at annual rates. Consider the following:

Ed Yardeni

Some Bad & Good News On Unit Labor Costs

May 5, 2022 1 min read

Contributing to the stock market selloff today was more bad news on the inflation front. Nonfarm business (NFB) productivity dropped 7.5% (saar) during Q1. It wasn’t as bad on a y/y basis, falling just 0.6%. It’s a very volatile series on a q/q basis and even on a y/y basis.

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Deflating Valuation Multiples

Apr 30, 2022 1 min read

More air came out of valuation multiples this past week. Here are the forward P/Es of the major indexes at the start of this year and on Friday:

Ed Yardeni

Sharp Increases in Rent Expected Over the Next Year

Apr 18, 2022 1 min read

The Federal Reserve Bank of NY today released results from its 2022 SCE Housing Survey, which is part of the broader Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and provides information on consumers’ housing-related experiences and expectations.

Ed Yardeni

Small Business Owners Experiencing Stagflation

Apr 13, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Expectations Jump Off the Chart

Apr 11, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Stephen Rybka