Paid Market Call: Still Climbing the Wall of Worry May 29, 2023 2 min read paid The latest bull market, which started on October 12, when the previous bear market ended, may be on course to be among the most hated bull markets in history. That's because it started with historically high P/Es. In the past, valuations offered compelling opportunities at the end of bear markets. Most despicable is that the bull has the chutzpah to charge ahead when almost everyone agrees a Ed Yardeni
Paid Bull Market or Rally in a Bear Market? May 18, 2023 2 min read paid Our short answer to the question posed in the title: "Bull market." The S&P 500 rose to a new high today of 4198.05 for 2023 taking out the February 2 closing high of 4179.76 (chart). The market has climbed a Wall of Worry thanks to Wall Street's Worriers, who've predicted that the banking and the debt ceiling crises could make Ed Yardeni
Paid Market Call: The Breadth Question May 14, 2023 2 min read paid They are back in their saddles again. The Magnificent 8 (a.k.a., the MegaCap-8) have been leading the stock market higher again. They've regained much of the market cap share they lost during last year's bear market, especially in recent weeks. They currently account for 24.7% of the S&P 500 index and 46.5% of the S&P 500 Growth index Ed Yardeni
Paid The Bears' Two Favorite Charts May 8, 2023 2 min read paid To support their pessimistic outlook, bearish prognosticators tend to focus on two charts. The first one shows the S&P 500 versus the securities held by the Fed, which account for most of the Fed’s balance sheet (chart). They contend that the bull market in stocks from 2009 through 2021 was driven by the Fed’s various quantitative easing programs. The S&P 500 peaked at a Ed Yardeni
Paid Market Call: Tug of War May 7, 2023 2 min read paid The bulls and the bears continue their tug of war with the S&P 500 fluctuating around 4000 since last summer (chart). The index rebounded off its 50-dma on Friday. The 200-dma has been crawling higher since the start of this year. In mid-March, when the banking crisis started, the breadth of the market narrowed as evidenced by the drop in the ratio of the S&P 500 Ed Yardeni
Paid An Upbeat Earnings Indicator Apr 24, 2023 1 min read paid Why has the stock market been holding up so well so far this year despite lots of pessimism about an impending recession? One possible explanation is that industry analysts are turning more optimistic on the earnings prospects of the companies they follow. We have been tracking the percent of S&P 500 companies with positive three-month percent changes in analysts' consensus forward earnings (chart). (FYI: “Forward” earnings is Ed Yardeni
Paid Stock Market Sentiment Most Bullish Since Start of Last Year's Bear Market Apr 19, 2023 2 min read paid The Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) climbed for the fourth week to 2.11 this week—the highest reading since the January 4 week last year, just when the previous bull market ended (chart). Early last October, when the bull market bottomed, the BBR was well below 1.00 at readings similar to those at the bottom of the bear market during the Great Financial Crisis. In late October, we concluded Ed Yardeni
Public Market Call Apr 18, 2023 2 min read We remain convinced that the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12, 2022. The S&P 500 is up 16.2% since then (table below). Every sector of the S&P 500 is up since then. Even the Financials sector is up 10.3% despite the recent banking crisis. We are still expecting to see the S&P 500 rise to 4600 by the end of Ed Yardeni
Public Market Call Apr 10, 2023 2 min read The tug of war between the bulls and the bears has been at a standstill recently with the S&P 500 holding above both its 50-dma and 200-dma (chart). That's quite impressive considering the banking crisis that started on March 10 when SVB imploded. Some observers (including us) think that the Fed Put is back. This time the Fed is shoring up the banking system with a Ed Yardeni
Public Stock Market Rally 'Don't Get No Respect' Apr 5, 2023 1 min read The comedian Rodney Dangerfield often lamented during his hilarious monologues , "I don't get no respect." That applies to the stock market rally since October 12. The naysayers are saying that it is a bear market rally and that the S&P 500 will soon be falling below its October 12 low. They also claim that only the MegaCap-8 stocks have participated in the rally, while Ed Yardeni
Paid Market Call Apr 3, 2023 2 min read paid No news is good news. Every day that nothing terrible happens in the banking system is a good day for the stock market. That helps to explain last week's strong rally (up 3.5%) (chart). Yes, but this morning, there's bad news on the energy front as OPEC+ is cutting oil production sending oil prices higher. That's good news for the S&P Ed Yardeni
Paid April Is Coming Mar 30, 2023 2 min read paid April is the second best month of the year for the stock market. From 1928 through 2022, the S&P 500 was up 1.4% on average during the month, second only to July's 1.7% average gain (chart). The S&P 500 is up 1.5% since the end of February through today (chart). That's impressive given that Silicon Valley Bank imploded on Ed Yardeni