S&P 500

An Upbeat Earnings Indicator

Apr 24, 2023 1 min read paid

Why has the stock market been holding up so well so far this year despite lots of pessimism about an impending recession? One possible explanation is that industry analysts are turning more optimistic on the earnings prospects of the companies they follow. We have been tracking the percent of S&P 500 companies with positive three-month percent changes in analysts' consensus forward earnings (chart). (FYI: “Forward” earnings is

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Sentiment Most Bullish Since Start of Last Year's Bear Market

Apr 19, 2023 2 min read paid

The Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) climbed for the fourth week to 2.11 this week—the highest reading since the January 4 week last year, just when the previous bull market ended (chart). Early last October, when the bull market bottomed, the BBR was well below 1.00 at readings similar to those at the bottom of the bear market during the Great Financial Crisis. In late October, we concluded

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 18, 2023 2 min read

We remain convinced that the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12, 2022. The S&P 500 is up 16.2% since then (table below). Every sector of the S&P 500 is up since then. Even the Financials sector is up 10.3% despite the recent banking crisis. We are still expecting to see the S&P 500 rise to 4600 by the end of

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 10, 2023 2 min read

The tug of war between the bulls and the bears has been at a standstill recently with the S&P 500 holding above both its 50-dma and 200-dma (chart). That's quite impressive considering the banking crisis that started on March 10 when SVB imploded. Some observers (including us) think that the Fed Put is back. This time the Fed is shoring up the banking system with a

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Rally 'Don't Get No Respect'

Apr 5, 2023 1 min read

The comedian Rodney Dangerfield often lamented during his hilarious monologues , "I don't get no respect." That applies to the stock market rally since October 12. The naysayers are saying that it is a bear market rally and that the S&P 500 will soon be falling below its October 12 low. They also claim that only the MegaCap-8 stocks have participated in the rally, while

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 3, 2023 2 min read paid

No news is good news. Every day that nothing terrible happens in the banking system is a good day for the stock market. That helps to explain last week's strong rally (up 3.5%) (chart). Yes, but this morning, there's bad news on the energy front as OPEC+ is cutting oil production sending oil prices higher. That's good news for the S&P

Ed Yardeni

April Is Coming

Mar 30, 2023 2 min read paid

April is the second best month of the year for the stock market. From 1928 through 2022, the S&P 500 was up 1.4% on average during the month, second only to July's 1.7% average gain (chart). The S&P 500 is up 1.5% since the end of February through today (chart). That's impressive given that Silicon Valley Bank imploded on

Ed Yardeni

Bad Breadth Again

Mar 28, 2023 1 min read

The ratio of the equal-weighted to market-cap-weighted S&P 500 stock price indexes is an interesting measure of market breadth. It is available daily since 1990 (chart). Based on this limited period, we can see that the ratio tends to rise following recessions and to peak before recessions. It bottoms just before or during recessions. The same pattern seems to apply to this ratio during bull and bear markets

Ed Yardeni

MegaCap-8 Stocks Are Outperforming Again

Mar 19, 2023 1 min read paid

The MegaCap-8 stocks seem to do well during pandemics. They did so in 2020 during the Covid lockdowns. They may be doing so again during the banking crisis. Their collective market-cap share has jumped from 19.0% a few weeks ago to 23.5% on Friday (chart).

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 18, 2023 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 closed at 3916.64 on Friday, just above where it closed at the end of last year (chart). We asked Joe Feshbach for his latest trading thoughts. He observes: "The market doesn’t need these premature rallies. They only serve to prolong the correction as negative sentiment doesn’t have time to intensify. Surprisingly, the daily put/call ratio (PCR) fell way to quickly

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 12, 2023 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 dropped 3.3% on Thursday and Friday, led by money center and regional bank stocks as a result of the SVB debacle. The index fell through both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages to close at 3861.59, just 0.6% above its 2022 close (chart). January’s big gains among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 mostly evaporated during February and

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 may continue to mark time until the data more convincingly support either the bull or the bear case. The index bounced off its 200-day moving average (dma) and closed above its 50-dma on Friday (chart). If the batch of economic indicators over the next two weeks is as strong as was January's comparable batch, the market will go down on fears that an

Ed Yardeni

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An Upbeat Earnings Indicator

Stock Market Sentiment Most Bullish Since Start of Last Year's Bear Market

Market Call

Market Call

Stock Market Rally 'Don't Get No Respect'

Market Call

April Is Coming

Bad Breadth Again

MegaCap-8 Stocks Are Outperforming Again

Market Call

Market Call

Market Call