S&P 500

MegaCap-8 Stocks Had a Very Bad 2022

Jan 2, 2023 2 min read

Sometimes it is better to own a small boat than a very large yacht. The former is cheaper to operate and easier to maneuver. The MegaCap-8 stocks won the S&P 500 regatta during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. They badly underperformed during 2022 once the pandemic abated. (The MegaCap-8 stocks are Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, NVIDIA, and Tesla.) Consider the following: (1) Market capitalization.

Ed Yardeni

2023: Another Year of Living Dangerously?

Dec 26, 2022 2 min read

With the benefit of hindsight, the title of this QT certainly applied to 2022. It was a tough year for investors. The consensus view is that 2023 could be as tough: (1) A December NYT opinion piece by Peter Coy is titled, "A Strong Signal That Recession Is Looming." He focuses on the inverted yield curve, which often in the past accurately predicted a financial crisis that morphed

Ed Yardeni

Fireworks Before Christmas?

Dec 20, 2022 2 min read

Santa is on his back foot. Fed Chair Powell's presser was hawkish last Wednesday. Thursday's batch of economic indicators seemed to support the hard-landing scenario. Could the Santa Claus rally make a comeback before Christmas despite the Grinch at the Fed? It could, depending on November's personal income report to be released on Friday. We think that it will confirm that inflation is moderating

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Consensus Forecasts Relatively Steady Recently

Dec 19, 2022 1 min read paid

We now have analysts' consensus estimates for the operating earnings per share of the S&P 500 through the December 15 week. They lowered their forecast for Q4-2022, now showing a gain of only 0.4% y/y. The actual results will be released by the companies during the upcoming earnings reporting season in January and February. The analysts' estimates for the four quarters of next year

Ed Yardeni

Bears Are Having A Field Day, Again

Dec 18, 2022 2 min read

Increasing market concern about a recession next year and triple-witching on Friday caused the S&P 500 to close out the week at 3852.36, its lowest level since November 9. It’s down 5.6% so far in December from its recent high of 4080.11 on November 30, but is still up 7.7% from its October 12 low of 3577.03. The index has made three

Ed Yardeni

Looking Forward to 2024!

Dec 18, 2022 1 min read paid

There's certainly lots of pessimism about 2023. That's the bad news. We certainly aren't as pessimistic as the consensus seems to be currently. The good news is that the stock market looks ahead by about 12 months. So the outlook for 2024 will matter more and more, while 2023's outcome will matter less and less as next year progresses. We are optimistic

Ed Yardeni

Feshbach's Market Call

Dec 5, 2022 1 min read paid

Before Friday, we had four excellent put/call ratios in a row and six out of the last 7 day excluding Friday, which was the first poor reading. The market also had a noticeable improvement in breadth on the latest rally.

Ed Yardeni

Calm Waters For Now

Dec 3, 2022 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 recovered nicely on Friday after it reacted badly to the morning's stronger-than-expected November payroll report, especially the higher-than-expected gain in wages. The knee-jerk reaction was that the end of the Fed's monetary tightening cycle would take longer to occur. But by the end of the day, the S&P 500 was down just 0.12% and remained above its 200-day

Ed Yardeni

Santa's Month

Nov 29, 2022 1 min read

Since 1928, Decembers have had more up months and fewer down months for the S&P 500 than any other month of the year (chart). The average change in the S&P 500 during Septembers has been -1.1%, the worst of the months. That was followed by October (0.6%), November (0.8%), and December (1.1%). Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus rally. Santa'

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500's Two Great Performances

Nov 13, 2022 2 min read paid Featured

The latest bear market in stocks has had a couple of very impressive bear market rallies. The S&P 500 jumped 17.4% from June 16 through August 16 from 3666 to 4305. It is up 11.8% from October 12 through Friday's close from 3577 to 3956. It's interesting to compare the fall's great performance so far with the summer's:

Ed Yardeni

Put Today In A Bottle and Cork It

Nov 10, 2022 2 min read paid

Yes, we know: Today's amazing stock market rally might have been just a bear market rally. It might have been a short-covering rally that reflected the extreme pessimism among investors and speculators. Just yesterday, the market dropped sharply on a couple of big earnings misses, a meltdown in crypto, and disappointment among some investors that the red wave was more like a red ripple, though the Republicans are

Ed Yardeni

A Happy Day Is Here Again For Stocks & Bonds

Nov 10, 2022 1 min read

Stocks and bonds rallied and the dollar fell after today's release of October's better-than-expected CPI. The headline rate was 7.7% y/y, lower than the 7.9% consensus and below September's reading of 8.2%. Leading the way down has been the CPI durable goods inflation rate, as we've been expecting (chart). We've been thinking that the bear market

Ed Yardeni

Page 8 of 9