S&P 500

Market Call

Mar 12, 2023 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 dropped 3.3% on Thursday and Friday, led by money center and regional bank stocks as a result of the SVB debacle. The index fell through both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages to close at 3861.59, just 0.6% above its 2022 close (chart). January’s big gains among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 mostly evaporated during February and

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 may continue to mark time until the data more convincingly support either the bull or the bear case. The index bounced off its 200-day moving average (dma) and closed above its 50-dma on Friday (chart). If the batch of economic indicators over the next two weeks is as strong as was January's comparable batch, the market will go down on fears that an

Ed Yardeni

Performance Derby: Stocks YTD & In February

Mar 1, 2023 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 was up 3.4% ytd through the last day of February (chart). All of the 11 S&P 500 sectors with the exception of Information Technology gave back some of their January gains (or widened their losses) during February (chart). The market was discounting a soft landing in January. During February, the concern was an inflationary no-landing scenario. It's been a tug

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Feb 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 was up 16.9% from last year’s low of 3577.03 on October 12, 2022 through this year’s high of 4179.76 on February 2 (chart). We still view last year’s low as the end of the bear market that started on January 3, 2022. We believe that the rally since then is the start of a new bull market, though we

Stephen Rybka

S&P 500 Dividends Rise To Record High

Feb 23, 2023 2 min read paid

Dividends are like plants. Both grow. But dividends can grow forever, while the size of plants is limited. Notwithstanding last year's bear market, S&P 500 dividends grew to a record high of $562.9 billion during 2022 (chart). Dividends tend to fall during recessions along with profits. There was no recession last year. There may not be one this year. Money invested in the S&

Ed Yardeni

Breadth Is Looking Up

Feb 7, 2023 1 min read paid

First the bad news: Industry analysts are continuing to cut their earnings estimates for this year and next year (chart). Nevertheless, as of the February 2 week, the analysts collectively still were projecting an increase this year of 2.3% to $224.31 and an increase of 11.2% next year to $249.52. Those estimates are consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown in earnings this year and better growth next

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500's Comeback Kids

Feb 4, 2023 2 min read paid

In our opinion, the latest bear market started on January 3, 2022 and ended on October 12, 2022. The S&P 500 fell 25.4% over that 282-day span. The decline was led by a 30% drop in the forward P/E of the S&P 500 and a 6.2% increase in forward earnings over that period. At the beginning of last year, we expected a correction,

Ed Yardeni

Technicals Confirming Bear Bottomed Oct. 12

Feb 3, 2023 1 min read

The S&P 500 blasted higher through its 200-day moving average over the past few days (chart). The four previous attempts to break out of this average failed. This one should succeed. The S&P 500's 50-day moving average has just risen slightly above its 200-day moving average, which may be bottoming now. Last summer and fall we observed that the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio

Ed Yardeni

Betting On S&P 500 Sectors In 2023

Jan 30, 2023 1 min read paid

While stock picking may be back in style and momentum investing is running out of momentum, we are still keeping track of the relative performance of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to one another and to the overall index (chart). Our four favorite sector picks for this year are Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials. These are our overweight recommendations. We would market-weight Information Technology and Health Care. We

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Jan 28, 2023 1 min read

Here is Joe Feshbach's latest take on the S&P 500: "The index is getting closer to its two previous highs of 4100,and thus a possible break above that level." That's been his target at the beginning of this rally and he sees "no reason to alter it." He adds, "The sentiment numbers just do not support a big

Ed Yardeni

Good Breadth

Jan 23, 2023 2 min read paid

One of the best market timers we know is Joe Feshbach. We were colleagues at Prudential-Bache Securities during the 1980s. I’ve been summarizing his views on a weekly basis since the beginning of last year. Here are his latest thoughts he shared with me, this past weekend: “The good news is the market got bumpy as predicted, and it lasted a whole two days. The chart I’ve been

Ed Yardeni

Getting Technical

Jan 17, 2023 1 min read paid

Here is Joe Feshbach's latest trading call: "The market has rallied according to plan accompanied by improving breadth numbers. The put/call ratio has moved back to neutral (chart). I would’ve preferred more skepticism on the rally. So while the market should eventually get to the upper end of its trading range it could get a bit bumpy soon. The chart I alluded to last week

Ed Yardeni

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Market Call

Market Call

Performance Derby: Stocks YTD & In February

Market Call

S&P 500 Dividends Rise To Record High

Breadth Is Looking Up

S&P 500's Comeback Kids

Technicals Confirming Bear Bottomed Oct. 12

Betting On S&P 500 Sectors In 2023

Market Call

Good Breadth

Getting Technical