Archive

The Economic Week Ahead: September 5-8

Sep 2, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a short week ahead and a light one for economic releases. We expect that the financial markets will start to focus on the following week when both the CPI and the federal deficit will be released for August on Wednesday, September 13. One week after that happens, the FOMC will decide whether to hike the federal funds rate or not. We think the Fed is done. We

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: S&P 500 Forward Earnings Remains On Recovery Road

Aug 31, 2023 4 min read paid

The stock market rallied from Friday through Wednesday despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The rally received a bullish jolt from July’s JOLTS report on Tuesday morning showing both fewer job openings and fewer quits than expected during the month. These are bullish developments, as we discuss further below, because they suggest that the labor market is “rebalancing,” with demand for labor

Ed Yardeni

PCED Inflation Rate Still On Moderating Course

Aug 31, 2023 2 min read paid

Both the headline and core PCED inflation rates rose 0.2% m/m in July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell anticipated that they would be moderate as they were in June in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday of last week. However, he said that two consecutive months of such moderation aren't enough. He wants to see inflation drop closer to the Fed's 2.0% target on

Ed Yardeni

Bull/Bear Ratios Tank, So Stocks Move Higher

Aug 30, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is up 3.2% since last Thursday's close even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday was hawkish. Three sectors have outperformed the S&P 500, namely, Information Technology (4.7%), Consumer Discretionary (4.2%), and Communication Services (4.1%). These are the ones that are home to the MegaCap-8, which were boosted by the drop in

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/30/23

Aug 30, 2023 1 min read paid

Today, we examine Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. The tone was more hawkish than we expected, with Powell saying that the Fed wouldn’t hesitate to raise interest rates further if needed to bring inflation back down to the Fed’s 2.0% target but failing to say what it would take for the Fed to lower interest rates given that inflation has been moderating.

Ed Yardeni

Hooray! Job Openings & Quits Fall

Aug 29, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market rallied on Friday, Monday, and today despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The S&P 500 rose back above its 50-day moving average (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.12% today. The rallies in both stocks and bonds received a bullish jolt from June’s JOLTS report today showing fewer job openings and quits than expected

Ed Yardeni

The Bond Market's Lines In The Sand

Aug 28, 2023 1 min read paid

Today, the stock market performed better because the bond market performed better. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield remained below 4.25%, which was last year's peak (chart). A few days ago it rose slightly above that rate but didn't follow through to the upside. The same can be said for the 10-year TIPS yield, which backed off from 2.00%. Breakouts above these resistance levels

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bond Vigilantes Calling The Shots For Stocks

Aug 27, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 has fluctuated around its 50-day moving average recently as the 10-year Treasury bond yield has done the same around 4.25%, which was last year's high on October 24 (chart). Sentiment is bearish in the bond market. It's less bullish in the stock market than it was during July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday was

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 28 - September 1

Aug 27, 2023 2 min read paid

Another fun-filled and data-packed week ahead. Hard to believe that the summer is almost over. That just gets us closer to a yearend stock market rally, but only if price and wage inflation rates continue to moderate, employment growth slows, and consumers stop binging. That's our outlook currently. We will get plenty of numbers this week which will either confirm or challenge whether we are still on the

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed Answers Your Questions

Aug 24, 2023 2 min read

The following are some questions we have received in the comments section of our QuickTakes recently, and Dr Ed's brief answers: (1) Oaul S. asks: "Dr Ed, what's your response to inflationary concerns about a wage-price spiral triggered by big wage increases coming at UPS, and the prospect of labor unions negotiating similar wage spikes at Amazon and elsewhere?" Dr Ed says: "This

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Misleading Economic Indicators?

Aug 24, 2023 3 min read paid

While we await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which is bound to impact the financial markets, let’s review the latest composite economic indexes. The Conference Board compiles the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), and the Index of Lagging Economic Indicators (LAGEI). July’s indexes were released last week on Thursday. Collectively, they are a mixed bag.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/23/23

Aug 23, 2023 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni