Ed Yardeni

CPI Heats Up But, Unlike 2021-22, Wages Remain Cool

May 12, 2026 4 min read paid

During 2021 and 2022, a wage-price spiral was exacerbated by widespread global supply chain disruptions and a spike in oil prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine (charts). This time, the war in the Middle East has caused oil prices to spike. Some supply chains have been disrupted. But a wage-price spiral is less likely. The labor market is in equilibrium this time (chart). In 2021-22,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 11-15

May 10, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, another record high. The index is 9.2% above its 200-day moving average. Earnings have done the heavy lifting so far this year. The Q1-2026 earnings reporting season is winding down, with companies representing 1% of the S&P 500’s market cap reporting this week and another 12% the following week. Industry analysts’ consensus Q1-

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Raising Our 2026 S&P 500 Target Range Due To Earnings-Led Meltup

May 10, 2026 5 min read paid

We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250. We've been bullish on earnings but not as bullish as the recent consensus of industry analysts. We've never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months. The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market. Our 2026

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst
Elias Griepentrog

INDUSTRIES: Mag-7 Isn't The Only AI Game In Town

May 9, 2026 4 min read

Since ChatGPT was introduced in late November 2022, the AI trade has been mostly focused on the Magnificent-7, especially the big cloud companies, i.e., the "hyperscalers” (chart). For a while, they were all viewed as AI dominators until DeepSeek was released by a Chinese software company in late January 2025. Increasing confidence that US Large Language Models (LLMs) would remain competitive revived the Mag-7's

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Productivity Booms As Labor Market Shows Signs Of Revival

May 7, 2026 4 min read paid

When the labor market sneezes, ADP, Paychex, and ManpowerGroup catch colds. The stock prices of all three sold off sharply as hiring cooled starting early last year (chart). But on balance, the latest batch of labor market data suggests that employment conditions may be improving, and employment-related stocks may be bottoming (chart). We disagree with the widely-held notion that AI is a net job killer. In our opinion,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Earnings-Led Meltup

May 6, 2026 4 min read paid

We have nothing to fear but nothing to fear. Stock investors have been fearless since the S&P 500 fell to the year's low on March 30, when war-related fears peaked. The index has soared 16.1% since then to a new record high. Yesterday, we explained our Buzz Lightyear Theory (BLT) of the stock market. Investors have concluded that, thanks to AI, demand for "

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Consumers Still Doing What They Do Best

May 6, 2026 1 min read paid

Consumer spending is the single biggest driver of US GDP growth, and its remarkable resilience despite lackluster income growth contributes mightily to the resilience of the US economy broadly. Today, Ed and Elias explain why consumer spending has seemed to defy economic gravity and why it should continue to do so. The short answer: our “gen-shaped economy,” shaped by generational dynamics as the Baby Boomers move through life’s

Ed Yardeni

Artificial Intelligence: To Infinity & Beyond!

May 5, 2026 4 min read paid

Before the Age of AI, economists were taught that there are only three factors of production, namely, Land, Labor, and Capital. The job of economists is to optimize the allocation of these scarce resources to maximize output (i.e., real GDP). Now, economists should recognize that there is a fourth factor of production, namely, Data. This resource is unlimited. But until AI, it wasn't very useful because it

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bond Yields Heating Up

May 4, 2026 4 min read paid

Today, the US launched Project Freedom, deploying 15,000 service members and over 100 aircraft to escort stranded commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The first two US-flagged merchant tankers were successfully escorted this morning. However, Iran struck the UAE's Fujairah energy hub and a UAE oil tanker and damaged residential areas in Oman. US forces destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted multiple missiles and

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

MARKET CALL: Up, Up & Away

May 3, 2026 5 min read

The stock market balloon is climbing higher, and the burners are firing. It isn't all hot air that is lifting stock prices. It's also earnings revisions, which are increasing for 2026 and 2027. Growth stocks and the Magnificent-7 have reasserted leadership over the past month. Small caps and the Russell 2000 are at fresh record highs too. Investor sentiment remains surprisingly lackluster, leaving plenty of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 4-8

May 3, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is chock-full of labor market indicators. In addition, nine Talking Fed Heads on the Federal Open Mouth Committee are on the speaking circuit, with Williams, Bowman, and Goolsbee coming up twice. Despite the elevated oil prices, the stock market continues to levitate to new highs. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude hit $110.10 intraweek and closed on Friday at $102.48.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

The Roaring 2020s Express Train

Apr 30, 2026 5 min read

Why is the stock market continuing to make new highs? It's doing so because corporate earnings are doing the same, as the economy continues to speed along without stopping for a recession. The latest batch of data certainly drove the stock market higher today, confirming that we are still riding the rails on the Roaring 2020s Express. Nothing seems to stop or derail this train. (1) GDP. The

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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