Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: The Oil Shock & Inflation

Apr 29, 2026 1 min read paid

Why hasn’t the price of Brent crude oil gone through the roof despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28? Ed and Elias explain the anomalous price action. … Also: Why US oil producers aren’t pumped enough by higher energy prices to save the day. … And: How the energy supply crisis is likely to feed into inflation, not just via higher gasoline and fuel prices but

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Swan Song

Apr 28, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow at 2:30 p.m., Jerome Powell will sing his swan song. That will be his last press conference after the latest FOMC meeting. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to confirm the nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Powell tomorrow. The Senate could move to a final vote shortly thereafter. Powell will likely explain why the FOMC is unlikely to lower the federal funds rate any time soon.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL CALL: Why Are Stock Prices Rising Around The World?

Apr 27, 2026 3 min read paid

Stock markets around the world sold off sharply after the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Despite the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, global stock prices have rebounded since the end of March. That is surprising, given that many countries' economies are vulnerable to stagflation and even recessions if oil prices remain elevated and oil shortages occur. Even more surprising is that

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Devil-May-Care

Apr 26, 2026 4 min read paid

In the autumn of 1956, Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal. Britain, France, and Israel invaded. The canal closed for five months. Two-thirds of Western Europe's oil moved through it, and the price of crude doubled in dollar terms before the year was out. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 10% from its July high to its October low. Tankers were forced

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 27-May 1

Apr 25, 2026 4 min read

This is one of the busiest weeks of the year on the economic calendar. Five major central banks meet: the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. Five mega-cap tech names report earnings: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple. Wednesday brings the advance Q1-2025 GDP report, and Thursday the March PCED, which will show how much of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: Creative Destruction On Speed

Apr 25, 2026 4 min read

We lowered the S&P 500 Information Technology and Communication Services sectors from overweight to market weight on December 7, 2025. We did so because the two sectors together accounted for 45% of the S&P 500's market capitalization (chart). We were also concerned about the mounting uncertainties regarding the rate of return on hyperscalers' massive AI investments. Since then, investors have concluded that the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Stock Market Rally Isn't Running Out of Fuel. US Economy Still Acing Stress Tests.

Apr 23, 2026 4 min read paid

President Donald Trump may have to write a sequel to his 1987 book, "Trump: The Art of the Deal." It's hard to make a deal if you kill your opponent. He said that about Iran today again: "They’re all messed up. They have no idea who their leader is... We took out, really, three levels of leaders... So they have a hard time figuring

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh, Rinse, Repeat

Apr 22, 2026 5 min read paid

We are Fed Watchers. In his Senate Banking Committee hearing yesterday, Kevin Warsh suggested that under his leadership, we might have less to watch. He advocated ending current "forward guidance" practices, which means no more quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, including the Dot Plot (chart). He suggested that a press conference after FOMC meetings should only be held when there is "important news" to deliver, rather

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Debating Warsh

Apr 22, 2026 1 min read paid

Kevin Warsh, the probable next Fed chair, wants to lower the federal funds rate sooner rather than later. Few FOMC members agree with him. Ed and Elias don’t either. Today, they explain why Warsh’s case for lower rates is fundamentally flawed. It rests on the economic dogma that, because the labor share of National Income is declining amid an AI-fueled productivity boom, the theoretical neutral federal funds

Ed Yardeni

Power Vacuum In Iran Isn't Fazing US Economy

Apr 21, 2026 4 min read

What if the US won the war, but Iran can't surrender because no one is in charge over there? To make a deal, President Donald Trump needs someone to deal with. He was hoping to strike a deal this week in Islamabad, but the Iranians declined to meet because they are too busy fighting among themselves. Indeed, Trump, today, said that he extended the ceasefire because "the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ENERGY: A Buying Opportunity

Apr 20, 2026 4 min read paid

We gave up on the S&P 500 Energy sector a couple of years ago. It has been underperforming the S&P 500 since late 2022 (chart). As a result of the latest war in the Middle East, it has been an outperformer since the beginning of this year through Friday, March 27. The sector has been underperforming again since then, when President Donald Trump suggested that the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

MARKET CALL: Animal Spirits Are Back

Apr 19, 2026 4 min read paid

When Kaiser Wilhelm II's Germany and Tsar Nicholas II's Russia squared off in the summer of 1914, the London Stock Exchange closed for five months. The New York Stock Exchange shut for four months. Investors assumed a continental war would be a calamity. World War I was a calamity for sure. However, by 1915, the NYSE had reopened, and the DJIA more than doubled by late

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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