Ed Yardeni

The Bond Market's Lines In The Sand

Aug 28, 2023 1 min read paid

Today, the stock market performed better because the bond market performed better. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield remained below 4.25%, which was last year's peak (chart). A few days ago it rose slightly above that rate but didn't follow through to the upside. The same can be said for the 10-year TIPS yield, which backed off from 2.00%. Breakouts above these resistance levels

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bond Vigilantes Calling The Shots For Stocks

Aug 27, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 has fluctuated around its 50-day moving average recently as the 10-year Treasury bond yield has done the same around 4.25%, which was last year's high on October 24 (chart). Sentiment is bearish in the bond market. It's less bullish in the stock market than it was during July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday was

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 28 - September 1

Aug 27, 2023 2 min read paid

Another fun-filled and data-packed week ahead. Hard to believe that the summer is almost over. That just gets us closer to a yearend stock market rally, but only if price and wage inflation rates continue to moderate, employment growth slows, and consumers stop binging. That's our outlook currently. We will get plenty of numbers this week which will either confirm or challenge whether we are still on the

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed Answers Your Questions

Aug 24, 2023 2 min read

The following are some questions we have received in the comments section of our QuickTakes recently, and Dr Ed's brief answers: (1) Oaul S. asks: "Dr Ed, what's your response to inflationary concerns about a wage-price spiral triggered by big wage increases coming at UPS, and the prospect of labor unions negotiating similar wage spikes at Amazon and elsewhere?" Dr Ed says: "This

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Misleading Economic Indicators?

Aug 24, 2023 3 min read paid

While we await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which is bound to impact the financial markets, let’s review the latest composite economic indexes. The Conference Board compiles the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), and the Index of Lagging Economic Indicators (LAGEI). July’s indexes were released last week on Thursday. Collectively, they are a mixed bag.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/23/23

Aug 23, 2023 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

More Investors Move To Correction Camp

Aug 23, 2023 1 min read paid

Investors Intelligence reported that their Bull/Bear Ratio was 2.38 this past week, remaining below the recent peak of 3.01 during the July 18 week (chart). Sentiment has been more cautious since Fitch Ratings downgraded US government debt on August 1 causing the 10-year Treasury bond yield to rise back above 4.00%, peaking at 4.36% yesterday morning The yield was back down to 4.23% this

Ed Yardeni

Oil Is Well

Aug 22, 2023 2 min read paid

Reuters reported today that the major US oil and gas producers spent more on payouts to shareholders last year than on exploration and development, according to an Ernst & Young report. By reducing capital spending, the industry is reducing its costs, contributing to upward pressure on oil and gas prices, and increasing its dividends and buybacks as profits swell. Of course, plenty of other factors are influencing prices as well.

Ed Yardeni

Bond Yield Returning To Normal

Aug 21, 2023 2 min read paid

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield continued to rise today, yet stock prices rallied led by the MegaCap-8 stocks. The bond yield is returning to the levels seen prior to the period spanning the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) through the Great Virus Crisis (GVC) when the Fed kept interest rates abnormally low. And the stock market might be OK with bond yields returning to their old normal. Nevertheless, there might

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: "No, Mr. Bond, I Expect You To Die!"

Aug 20, 2023 3 min read paid

Does the Fed really want to see the yield curve "disinvert" with the 10-year Treasury bond yield (currently 4.26%) rising up to the 2-year Treasury note yield (currently 4.92%) (chart)? We will find out on Friday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference. If Powell wants to calm the bond market down, he should acknowledge that inflation has

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 21-25

Aug 19, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Bond Prices Go Drip, Drip, Drip

Aug 17, 2023 2 min read paid

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose above 4.00% at the beginning of August on better-than-expected economic data. It rose above last year's peak of 4.25% today, trading most recently at 4.32%, following the release yesterday of July's FOMC minutes, which strongly suggested that solid economic growth might keep inflation above the Fed's 2.0% target unless the Fed continues to

Ed Yardeni

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