Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVES: Inflation, Symmetry & Shockwaves

Aug 7, 2023 2 min read paid

Inflation tends to be a symmetrical phenomenon. It tends to come down as quickly or as slowly as it went up when measured on a y/y basis. We can see this consistent pattern in the CPI inflation rate for the US since 1921 (Fig. 1). The inflation symmetry has been particularly pronounced in the goods-producing sector (Fig. 2). That’s because goods prices tend to respond quickly to changes

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: September Is Coming!

Aug 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down 2.4% from its bull market high of 4588.96 on July 31 through Friday's close (chart). It ran into resistance at the top end of its bullish channel, which could take the index to 4400-5000 by the end of this year. We are sticking with 4600, suggesting that there isn't much upside for the rest of this year.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 7-11

Aug 5, 2023 2 min read paid

Everyone hold your breath: The next BIG inflation number will be July's CPI (Thu). It could be troublesome for bonds and stocks. That's if the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting is on track. It is updated each business day. On August 4, it projected that the headline and core CPI inflation rates will both be up 0.4% m/m. The comparable y/y inflation

Ed Yardeni

Upside Productivity Surprise Subdues Inflation, Maybe

Aug 3, 2023 1 min read

Wow! This morning's Q2 Productivity and Costs report was surprisingly good, but a bit hard to believe. Nonfarm productivity jumped 3.7% q/q (saar) as output increased 2.4% (the same as real GDP), while hours worked fell 1.3% (chart). The decline in hours worked is the first decline since Q2-2020 and was the result of a 1.3% decline in average weekly hours; employment was

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Running Into Resistance & Bond Vigilantes

Aug 2, 2023 2 min read paid

The good news is that almost everyone agrees that an imminent recession isn't very likely. That reduces the downside concerns about corporate earnings. But it increases the downside potential for the stock market's valuation multiple if the bond yield continues to rise. The Bond Vigilantes may be saddling up in response to the widening federal deficit. They don't seem to mind budget deficits when

Ed Yardeni

Uncle Sam Downgrade Raises Caution Flag

Aug 2, 2023 2 min read paid

In yesterday's QT, we noted that the 10-year Treasury bond yield was back just over 4.00% and that this might "weigh on stock valuations, especially of the MegaCap-8." That's what happened today. Yesterday, after the close, Fitch Ratings downgraded US government debt from AAA to AA+ for all the reasons that have been concerning in the bond market for years. The US federal

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/2/23

Aug 2, 2023 1 min read paid

We’re raising the subjective odds we assign to the no-landing economic scenario through year-end 2024 (by 10% to 85%) and lowering our odds of a hard landing (by 10% to 15%). But we’re keeping close tabs on hard-landers’ latest arguments. Today, we summarize the main ones and give our rebuttals. … The biggest issue dividing the two camps is the outlook for consumer spending, representing over two-thirds of nominal

Ed Yardeni

Time To Get Some Worry Beads?

Aug 1, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's batch of economic indicators was relatively upbeat. June's JOLTS report showed that jobs remained plentiful. July's M-PMI suggests that the rolling recession experienced by goods producers and distributors may be bottoming. June's construction spending rose to yet another record high (chart). The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model estimates that real GDP rose a whopping 3.9% during Q3. That

Ed Yardeni

July was Red Hot

Jul 31, 2023 2 min read paid

July was hotter than usual. We aren't referring to the weather but rather to the 3.1% increase in the S&P 500. That compares to an average increase of 1.7% for the month since 1928, with an average gain of 4.9% for the 58 up years and an average 3.2% loss during the 38 down years (chart). So it is fair to say

Ed Yardeni

Dow Theory On Bullish Track

Jul 29, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 closed at the bull market's high of 4582.22 on Friday. Chart technicians continue to ring the alarm bells. The index is 11.9% above its 200-dma, which is 4094.1 (chart). Sentiment is too bullish. Breadth is too narrow. Valuations are stretched. The bears are capitulating. Run for the hills! Yet, last week, the Dow Theory flashed a bright green signal. That&

Ed Yardeni

The Bull Deserves A Rest

Jul 27, 2023 2 min read

The bull market's winning streak ended today. The Dow closed higher for 13 straight sessions through Wednesday, its longest series of positive closes since 1987. It was down 0.67% today. The Dow's longest-ever winning streak was 14 sessions, set in 1897, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P 500 closed at 4537.41 today after hitting a bull market intraday

Ed Yardeni

The Urge To Merge

Jul 26, 2023 2 min read paid

When the banking crisis occurred during March, we concluded that the Fed's emergency liquidity response would contain the problem. We predicted that investors soon would be scrambling to determine which regional banks might be acquired rather than worrying about which of them might be seized by banking regulators. We argued that the higher costs of regulation that would soon be imposed on the smaller banks would force the

Ed Yardeni

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