Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 24-28

Apr 23, 2023 1 min read paid

This week is jampacked with economic indicators and earnings reports. The BIGGEST numbers will come out on Friday for the PCED and ECI inflation rates. Both should show that inflation remains high but is continuing to moderate. The ECI wage inflation rate was 5.1% during Q4. We know that AHE fell to 4.2% y/y during March (chart). Q1's preliminary real GDP (Thu) is tracking at

Ed Yardeni

Fed 's H.4.1 Shows Banking Crisis Not Getting Worse

Apr 21, 2023 2 min read paid

The Fed's H.4.1 report is released every Thursday at 4:15 pm. It shows the Fed's assets and liabilities. Yesterday's report shows that the Fed's total assets edged down to $8.7 trillion after rising since early March when banks scrambled to borrow from the Fed's liquidity facilities to offset deposit outflows during the SVB-induced banking crisis (chart)

Ed Yardeni

Recession Drumbeat Getting Louder

Apr 20, 2023 3 min read

The S&P 500 has been holding up quite well as the the nattering nabobs of negativism beat their drums more loudly. Today's batch of economic indicators gave the bears plenty to growl about. Consider the following: (1) LEI. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) peaked at a record high during February 2022 (chart). It's been falling since then. It was down during March

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Sentiment Most Bullish Since Start of Last Year's Bear Market

Apr 19, 2023 2 min read paid

The Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) climbed for the fourth week to 2.11 this week—the highest reading since the January 4 week last year, just when the previous bull market ended (chart). Early last October, when the bull market bottomed, the BBR was well below 1.00 at readings similar to those at the bottom of the bear market during the Great Financial Crisis. In late October, we concluded

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/17/23

Apr 19, 2023 1 min read paid

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s ambiguous warnings about the economy broadly and banks specifically, voiced intermittently since last summer, have probably led many an investor astray. JPM stock has soared 34% since October, and the S&P 500 has leapt 7% in the month or so since SVB imploded, with every sector participating. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 18, 2023 2 min read

We remain convinced that the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12, 2022. The S&P 500 is up 16.2% since then (table below). Every sector of the S&P 500 is up since then. Even the Financials sector is up 10.3% despite the recent banking crisis. We are still expecting to see the S&P 500 rise to 4600 by the end of

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 17-21

Apr 16, 2023 2 min read paid

This is a light week for economic indicators, but there will be plenty of earnings calls to keep investors busy. We will be focusing on the two regional business surveys for April released by the FRBNY (Mon) and the Philly Fed (Thu). Together, they tend to foretell the outcome of the three other regional business surveys released later this month as well as the national M-PMI (out early next month)

Ed Yardeni

Banking Crisis May Be Abating

Apr 15, 2023 2 min read paid

We've previously observed that any day without a banking crisis is a good day for stocks. SVB imploded on Friday, March 10. On Sunday, March 12, the Fed and FDIC took actions to avoid additional bank runs. The S&P 500 is up 7.1% since March 10 led by Information Technology (9.8%), Health Care (8.6), and Utilities (7.6%) (chart). All of the sectors

Ed Yardeni

Is That Inflation In The Rearview Mirror?

Apr 13, 2023 2 min read

Could it be that the spike in inflation over the past two years was one of the many shockwaves caused by the pandemic? Is inflation turning out to be relatively transitory after all? Goods inflation is certainly looking transitory (chart). Services inflation has been much more persistent, but is likely to moderate during the second half of this year along with rent inflation. Wage inflation may remain troublesome, but less

Ed Yardeni

Inflation, the Fed & Too Much Happiness

Apr 12, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell slightly today despite the better-than-expected March CPI data this morning. Inflation continues to moderate. The headline CPI inflation rate fell from 6.0% y/y in February to 5.0% in March. However, the core rate edged up from 5.5% to 5.6%, but slowing rent inflation is likely to cool this rate in coming months. On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/10/23

Apr 12, 2023 1 min read paid

The tug-of-war between the hard-landers and the soft-landers continues. The twists and turns of recent economic-outlook-impacting events have been taking investors for a ride, but our stance remains steadfastly fixed on one outcome: a soft landing of the broad economy with mini recessions continuing to roll through various sectors. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to

Ed Yardeni

CPI Inflation Close to Zero...In China

Apr 11, 2023 2 min read paid

The March CPI report is likely to show that inflation remains high in the US, but is continuing to moderate. In February, the headline and core CPI inflation rates were 6.0% and 5.5% on a y/y basis. Stock and bond prices should rally if the March numbers are lower by around 50bps. They would probably sink if the results are around 50bps higher. We are expecting the

Ed Yardeni

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