Elias Griepentrog

Apocalypse Now, Not! Lowering Recession Odds.

Apr 7, 2026 4 min read paid

Two hours before his latest deadline, President Donald Trump canceled Obliteration Day. He agreed tonight to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The deal was brokered by Pakistan. Trump confirmed the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran as a basis for negotiating a permanent peace agreement. Israel separately agreed to suspend its bombing during negotiations. The market reaction was swift. Crude oil prices tumbled, while S&

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Oil Price Shock Boosts March Prices-Paid PMIs

Apr 6, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. is the deadline by which Iran must accept President Donald Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face a US attack on its power plants and bridges. There is no way to predict the outcome. We can't rule out that Iran will cave in. Or, Trump may postpone the deadline again, explaining that negotiations are making progress.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stocks: Was That The Bottom On Monday?

Apr 2, 2026 4 min read

On Tuesday night, we suggested that the S&P 500 might have bottomed on Monday, with a pullback of 9.1% (i.e., just under a 10% correction) from its January 27 record high. Tuesday's strong equity rally was triggered by reports that the US had found an exit ramp from its war with Iran. Wednesday night, President Donald Trump confirmed that the US would exit in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

POTUS Sees An Exit Ramp Up Ahead

Apr 1, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The War and the President's Speech Yesterday, we concluded that the S&P 500's pullback bottomed on Monday, just shy of a 10% correction. The S&P 500 fell on Monday to 6343.72, down 9.1% from its January 27 record high. That low could be retested, but we think that yesterday's big rally, combined with the recent drop in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Relief Rally Ends Correction Risk

Mar 31, 2026 3 min read paid

Today's powerful relief rally in the stock market was fueled by news that President Donald Trump intends to declare victory in the war with Iran, according to an article in this morning's Wall Street Journal. Around noon, the market moved higher still on a report that the President of Iran said his country is ready to end the war if the US agrees to its 5-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Eurozone's Latest Energy Crisis

Mar 26, 2026 5 min read

NEWS FLASH: President Donald Trump postponed Obliteration Day again today, until Monday, April 6 at 8:00 pm EST. He said he is granting a request from the Iranian government to extend the pause on potential airstrikes on Iran's power plants by an additional 10 days. That will prolong uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets. It also means oil prices will remain elevated for at least another

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog