The Stock Market's Latest Bungee Jump
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The S&P 500 fell 2.9% last week. Today, it rallied 2.6% to 3678.43, back above the June 16 low of 3666. Why did it do so…
Oh No: The Fed Is Making Another Big Mistake!
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2 min read
Are Fed officials making another big mistake? They were behind the inflation curve during 2020 and the first half of 2021 because they prioritized lowering the unemployment rate relative to…
Money Flooding Into US From Overseas
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Money from overseas is pouring into the US capital markets, which foreign investors regard as a haven in a world that’s increasingly unsafe for them. Their mantra is “TINAC:…
The Calm Before The Storm?
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They say that the stock market tends to climb a wall of worry. It has been doing just that since the S&P 500 bottomed at 3666.77 on June…
The Most Bearish Two Charts In Our Collection
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On our website, thousands of our charts are automatically updated as new data become available. The most bearish of the lot are shown below. The first one shows the Fed's…
TINAC & TICS Update
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June's Treasury International Capital System (TICS) was released on Monday. The TICS data tend to confirm our TINAC thesis, i.e., there is no alternative country: the US is a…
Valuation-Led Rally Could Sputter This Week
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1 min read
The bull runs in the bond market since June 14 and the stock market since June 16 could stall this week. Both markets have probably discounted that July's CPI report…
Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?
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The wage-price-rent spiral continues to spiral. Yet, the Bond Vigilantes, who were very vigilant at the start of the year, seem to be taking a siesta now.
The US Treasury…
A Couple of Bullish Bond Market Indicators
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2 min read
Is the bond yield heading higher or lower? It should be heading higher given that it remains well below the rate of inflation. That’s unless investors believe that inflation…
Is the Worst Over For Bonds?
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We are keeping an eye on the Citibank Economic Surprise Index (ESI), which is highly correlated with the 13-week change in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. The ESI measures the degree to which economic data are either beating or missing expectations.
