Bond Market

US MARKETS CALL: Is The 10-Year Bond Yield Back To The Old Normal?

Oct 10, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Bonds The Economist just rang the all-clear siren for the bond market (chart). It is safe to buy bonds now that the front cover of the October 10 magazine is titled "Will bonds blow up?" This and other national magazines’ cover stories often have been great contrary indicators. It’s the “front-page curse” (once magazines put in the time it takes them to produce a

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

The Bond Yield Spectrum

Oct 7, 2026 5 min read paid

I. From The Good To The Bad To The Ugly The spectrum of explanations for the rise in bond yields worldwide includes relatively benign ones to downright dangerous ones (chart). On the good side of the spectrum, better-than-expected economic growth has driven US bond yields up to levels that are back to normal. On the ugly side, soaring bond yields in France are signaling a looming debt crisis.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US MARKET CALL: Stocks Ignoring Bonds, For Now

Oct 3, 2026 5 min read

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has climbed above 5.25%, and the S&P 500 hasn’t flinched. The stock index is just 2.2% below our year-end target of 7,900. It could overshoot our target in the coming days now that crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf producers reportedly are averaging around 98% of pre-war totals, excluding Iran. Producers and shippers have

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Thoughts On Global Government Debt With A Focus On The US

Sep 28, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Revenge of the Bond Vigilantes? We still have a 70% subjective probability for our bullish base-case Roaring 2020s scenario. The remaining 30% covers all the possible bearish scenarios. We monitor those possibilities closely with our Worry List. Our main worry right now is the significant rise in bond yields worldwide this year (chart). The higher global bond yields may be due to higher inflation, driven by the jump

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US MARKETS CALL: Invasion Of The Bond Vigilante Algorithms

Sep 26, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Credit Last week's events confirm our "Proceed With Caution" call in September 15's QuickTakes. The main event was the jump in the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.00% to an intraday high of 5.22% on Friday (chart). At the end of the day, it closed lower, at 5.18%, after news that Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Booming Economy Pushes Bond Yields Higher

Sep 23, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields have risen for many reasons this year (chart). The war in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine have pushed up crude oil and refined petroleum product prices. Rising interest rates in Japan are forcing hedge funds to unwind their carry trades. They are paying back their yen loans by selling the higher-yielding government bonds of the US and other countries that they purchased

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh & Bessent Share A Credibility Problem

Sep 14, 2026 4 min read paid

President Donald Trump has some advice for the Fed. Speaking to reporters at the Irish Open golf tournament today, he said he did not know whether Fed policymakers will raise interest rates at their meeting this week. But he said the US "should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world" even though economic growth is robust and inflation remains sticky above the Fed's 2.

Ed Yardeni

US MARKET CALL: Still Targeting 8400, But Raising Odds Of Bearish Outcome To 30%

Sep 12, 2026 5 min read

I. Performance The good news is that our recommendation to overweight the S&P 500 Energy sector is working well (chart). The bad news is that it is doing so because the war in the Middle East has re-escalated. Saudi Arabia has shut down its East-West pipeline as a precaution after a drone attack that originated in Iraq. The pipeline had been moving 4 million to 5

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Is The Fed's Stock Valuation Model Working Again?

Aug 17, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The Fed's Stock Valuation Model In his famous December 5, 1996 speech, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan asked, "How can we judge whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued?" His staff apparently scrambled to examine various stock valuation models to help him gauge the market’s exuberance. One such model was made public, albeit buried in the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report to Congress that accompanied Greenspan’

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Time for A Break Or a Brake?

May 17, 2026 5 min read paid

The S&P 500 sold off by 1.2% on Friday after hitting a record high of 7501.24 on Thursday. We are sticking with our 8250 year-end target for the S&P 500 (chart). However, the index might have peaked for a while. That's because bond yields spiked on Friday, which just happened to be Kevin Warsh's first day at the office

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Another Day, Another Step Closer to a Tightening Bias

May 15, 2026 4 min read paid

Two important psychological levels are being tested in the US Treasury market right now. The 2-year yield is trading just above 4.00% this evening, May 14 (chart). That's 25bps above the current federal funds rate (FFR) range of 3.50%-3.75%. That implies investors believe the Fed may need to raise the FFR by at least 25 bps in the foreseeable future. The 30-year

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bond Yields Heating Up

May 4, 2026 4 min read paid

Today, the US launched Project Freedom, deploying 15,000 service members and over 100 aircraft to escort stranded commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The first two US-flagged merchant tankers were successfully escorted this morning. However, Iran struck the UAE's Fujairah energy hub and a UAE oil tanker and damaged residential areas in Oman. US forces destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted multiple missiles and

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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