Bond Market

Bond Yield Rises, Ignoring Weak ADP Payrolls Report

Jul 2, 2025 3 min read paid

The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose yesterday and today on mostly upbeat employment indicators. Yesterday, the JOLTS report came in stronger than expected. In addition, initial unemployment claims edged down, according to yesterday's report. Today, the Challenger report showed a drop in layoffs. The bond market chose to tune out the uptick in continuing unemployment claims in yesterday's report, and it also ignored today's

Ed Yardeni

A New Day In The Middle East?

Jun 24, 2025 3 min read paid

Any day with a ceasefire in the Middle East is a good day for stocks. On Monday, President Donald Trump declared that the "12-Day War" between Israel and Iran is over. The S&P 500 rose 2.1% yesterday and today on that news to 6092.18 (chart). That's only 0.9% below the February 19 record high of 6144.15. The market rose even

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Chilling Down While Middle East Is Heating Up

Jun 12, 2025 4 min read paid

May's PPI inflation report, released today, was lower than expected as was May's CPI inflation report yesterday. The PPI final demand for personal consumption edged down to 2.6% y/y in May, while the CPI rose only 2.4% during the month (chart). Both suggest that May's PCED inflation rate might have dropped to 2.0%, which would finally be down to the

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Bag

Jun 4, 2025 3 min read paid

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell to 4.36% today on a batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators. Bond investors weren't fazed by Elon Musk's attack on President Trump's "big beautiful bill" on Tuesday afternoon. Musk thinks it’s ugly: "This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination." Nor were they fazed by the fact that the

Ed Yardeni

Happy Day

May 27, 2025 3 min read paid

Today is a happy day for stock investors. They are pleased that President Donald Trump had a pleasant phone call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the weekend. So he postponed his threat on Friday to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on June 1 to July 9. Today, Trump said he is monitoring "positive" steps in trade talks with the region, which has

Ed Yardeni

Is A US Government Debt Crisis Imminent?

May 21, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock investors have been less "tarrified" about President Donald Trump's tariffs since April 9, when he postponed most of his proposed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days (chart). However, they may now be getting spooked that the bond market might be on the verge of a debt crisis, especially after Moody's downgraded US government debt on Friday and Japanese bond yields soared in recent days.

Ed Yardeni

Let Them Eat Tariffs!

May 19, 2025 3 min read paid

Walmart warned last week that it will have to raise prices because of President Donald Trump's tariffs. On Saturday, the President advised the country's largest retailer that it should "eat the tariffs." Retailers operate with very thin profit margins (chart). If they don't raise their prices, they stand to lose money on their sales. That's not a sustainable business model.

Ed Yardeni

Bonds Are Stirred, Not Shaken

Apr 28, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down roughly 10% from its record high on February 19. Considering Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT), that's not too bad. Also recall all the angst unleashed when the 10-year US Treasury bond yield spiked from 4.00% to 4.50% right after President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs. Now it is back down to 4.20%

Ed Yardeni

Are Tariffs Inflationary Or Deflationary? Are They Really ‘A Beautiful Thing?’

Mar 5, 2025 3 min read paid

Until recently, the message from the bond market has been that tariffs are deflationary because they depress global economic activity. As Warren Buffett recently observed, they are a tax that consumers, importers, and/or exporters pay. It is widely presumed that tariff increases have a transitory, one-shot, price-rising impact. Indeed, on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the Chinese "will eat any tariffs that go on."

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Not Too Cold, Not Too Hot

Jan 14, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Spooking Stock Jockeys

Jan 12, 2025 2 min read paid

Last year, during August, we anticipated that US bond yields would rebound. Indeed, they have. During December, we expected a stock market correction at the start of the new year. So far, there has been a significant pullback in almost all of the major stock market indexes since the S&P 500 peaked at a record high on December 6, 2024 (chart). Some of these pullbacks, which are 5%

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Modern Monetary Magic At Work

Oct 28, 2024 3 min read

Republican Everett Dirksen was the Senate Minority Leader during the 1960s. Cautioning that federal spending had a way of getting out of control, Dirksen reportedly observed, "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking real money." Proponents of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) have been claiming in recent years that the US federal government can run large budget deficits to fund social welfare programs

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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