Earnings

US MARKET CALL: Investors Curbing Their Enthusiasm As Less FOMO Offsets More FEMO

Sep 19, 2026 5 min read

I. Curbing Our Enthusiasm Last week on Tuesday, we pushed our 8,400 year-end target for the S&P 500 to mid-2027. Our new year-end target is 7,900. We remain confident in the resilience of both the economy and S&P 500 companies’ earnings per share (EPS). On the other hand, we think recent developments may weigh on their stocks’ valuation multiples for the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

AI Buildout Is Stimulating The Economy

Aug 27, 2026 4 min read paid

Nvidia's Q2 earnings report suggests that the AI spending boom is broadening. The company forecast 70% revenue growth next fiscal year, far above Wall Street's 45% expectation, and said growth would be even stronger if supply constraints were less severe. Significantly, non-hyperscaler revenue grew 138% y/y, outpacing hyperscaler revenue growth of 102% y/y, as demand broadened beyond mega-cap tech into AI-native

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Peak Fear? Peak Yields? Peak Earnings? Peak AI?

Aug 25, 2026 5 min read paid

The answers are: Yes, Maybe, No, and No. We have nothing to fear but nothing to fear. The stock market likes to climb a wall of worry. So too much optimism tends to be bearish, while too much pessimism tends to be bullish. Fortunately, there is plenty to fear these days. Indeed, in a recent LinkedIn post, billionaire Ray Dalio reiterated that recent events confirm that the US is on

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 24-28

Aug 23, 2026 4 min read

Global bond markets stole the spotlight last week. The US 10-year yield closed at 4.74% and the 30-year at 5.27%, up 6bps and 2bps, respectively, for the week (chart). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent surprised the markets on Wednesday by announcing that the US Treasury would double its long-term debt purchases to at least $4 billion per operation; that was the same day that the US

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Stocks Getting Cheaper As Earnings Outpace Prices

Aug 22, 2026 5 min read

Stocks are cheaper than they were in January. S&P 500 forward earnings has risen twice as fast as the S&P 500 stock price index so far this year. So the forward P/E has declined as the index rose to record highs. The impetus was FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum) as opposed to FOMO (fear of missing out). Investors are getting more earnings for their money than

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Inflation Risks Still Outweigh Labor Market Risks

Jul 28, 2026 4 min read paid

All eyes are on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Markets expect the Fed's monetary policy committee to leave the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with the CME FedWatch assigning roughly a 70% probability to no change and a 30% probability to a 25bps rate hike. Investors will be closely watching the FOMC statement, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, and the degree

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US MARKET CALL: Hanging Out At 7,500 And 4.50%

Jul 18, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 first hit 7,500 on May 14 and has remained stuck around that level. The index continues to cruise along its 50-day moving average. A 6.0% drop would send it back to its 200-day moving average (chart). We have seen this movie before, recently, during late 2024 into early 2025 and again during late 2025 into early 2026. Both saw similar bouts

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Is Irrational Exuberance Driving FEMO?

Jun 20, 2026 5 min read

The stock market bubble of the late 1990s was driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) on the tech-led bull market. As a result, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 rose to a record high of 25.0 in early 2000 as the forward P/E of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector soared to a record high of 55.0 (chart). The

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

CONSUMER STAPLES: High P/E With Low Earnings Growth

May 31, 2026 4 min read paid

We recommend an underweight position in the S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector. At first glance, the sector looks fine. Its stock price index is near a record high (chart). Consumer Staples could turn out to be a haven if AI exuberance is fueling a tech bubble that bursts. On the other hand, Consumer Staples is up 6.5% ytd, ranking 7th among the 11 S&P 500

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: FEMO-Driven Stock Market Meltup

May 30, 2026 5 min read

As stock prices continue to soar, fears of an AI bubble are increasing. The tech bubble of the 1990s was driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). This time, fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) is driving tech stock prices higher. An earnings-led meltup like this should be more sustainable than a P/E-led meltup fueled by irrational exuberance. That’s especially true of FEMO meltups, like this one, that

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: FOMO vs FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)

May 24, 2026 5 min read paid

The stock market has had an exuberant stretch since the S&P 500 bottomed on March 30. The index is up 17.8% since then through Friday, after hitting a record high on May 14. The DJIA rose to a record high this past Friday. The bears say the exuberance is irrational, driven by lots of excitement about AI. We say it is rational, based on our Buzz Lightyear

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 11-15

May 10, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, another record high. The index is 9.2% above its 200-day moving average. Earnings have done the heavy lifting so far this year. The Q1-2026 earnings reporting season is winding down, with companies representing 1% of the S&P 500’s market cap reporting this week and another 12% the following week. Industry analysts’ consensus Q1-

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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