Economic Survey

Tale Of Two Surveys Of Purchasing Managers

Mar 3, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's NM-PMI for February was happier than the month's M-PMI released on Wednesday. On balance, they confirm that consumers have pivoted away from buying goods to services, and that the rolling recession in the goods-providing industries continues to be offset by strength in services-providing ones. Let's start with the happy news that's contributed to this morning's stock market rally: (1)

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 13-17

Feb 12, 2023 2 min read paid

Financial markets are likely to be action packed this week because the economic calendar is jampacked with key economic indicators that will impact the debate about both the economic and inflation outlooks, and their impact on Fed policy. The inflation action starts on Monday with January's FRBNY consumer inflationary expectations survey likely to show some more moderation in the one-year ahead series (chart). January's CPI (Tue)

Ed Yardeni

Surveys Say NY & Philly Manufacturing Weak

Jan 19, 2023 1 min read paid

Stock prices tanked yesterday following reports showing sharp declines in December's retail sales and industrial production. As a result, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) fell to -24.7 (chart). The 13-week change in the 10-year US Treasury yield (in basis points) is highly correlated with the CESI and it continued to drop yesterday. On Tuesday, January's NY Fed business survey was much weaker than we

Ed Yardeni

Small Business Owners Say Job Market Cooling

Jan 10, 2023 2 min read

December's NFIB survey of small business owners should make the Fed's hawks a bit less hawkish. They want to see evidence that the labor market is cooling and that inflationary pressures are easing. Today's NFIB report confirmed that both may be underway: (1) Fed officials have been focusing on job openings in the JOLTS report. They want to see it drop significantly indicating that

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead Jan. 9-13

Jan 8, 2023 1 min read

The Q4-2022 earnings reporting season starts this week with the big money center banks. They are unlikely to surprise investors. Their managements may once again warn, as they have in the past, that a consumer-led recession is likely this year. That's old news, and the markets aren't likely to react to it. Besides, if the banks expect a recession, why haven't they been adding

Ed Yardeni

Regional Puzzle Pieces Showing Slowing Economy & Inflation

Dec 28, 2022 2 min read

Almost everyone working on Wall Street is on vacation, except for the bears. They've been munching on stock prices, especially those of some of the MegaCaps like Tesla and Apple. There was a Santa Claus rally, sort of, when the S&P 500 climbed 14% from October 12 through November 30. But it has fizzled since then as investors fretted about further Fed tightening and a recession

Ed Yardeni

CPI Inflation Peaked During June & Continues to Moderate

Dec 13, 2022 2 min read

Stock prices soared this morning on November's better-than-expected inflation news, but gave back much of the gain as investors realized that Fed Chair Jerome Powell might remain hawkish at his press conferencce tomorrow becuase inflation remains too high. The S&P 500 closed up 0.72% at 4019, just below its 200-day moving average of 4025. The CPI rose 7.1% y/y in November, a slowdown

Ed Yardeni

Sweet & Sour

Nov 29, 2022 1 min read paid

Today's release of November's Consumer Confidence Index showed that the labor market remains relatively tight. The percentage of respondents saying that jobs are plentiful remained high at 45.8%. That's still elevated even though it was mostly around 55.0% last year. This series closely tracks the job openings series in the JOLTS report, which will come out tomorrow for October (chart). The Fed

Ed Yardeni

Most Widely Anticipated Recession Ever

Nov 28, 2022 2 min read

Our contrarian instincts give us more confidence in our “growth recession,” or “mid-cycle slowdown,” scenario. A recession next year would be the most widely anticipated downturn on record. Consider the following: (1) Philly Fed’s Anxious Index. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, which started during Q4-1968, includes the Anxious Index, which is the probability of a decline in real GDP (chart). The survey asks panelists

Ed Yardeni

Ups & Downs Of Inflation

Nov 15, 2022 2 min read paid Featured

We certainly aren’t out of the inflation woods yet, but we do seem to be heading in the right direction to get out of this dark forest. Let’s review the latest batch of inflation indicators, starting with two disappointing ones: (1) Inflation expectations uptick. On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its October survey of inflation expectations of Americans. It headed in the wrong way,

Ed Yardeni

Small Business Owners Have Some Bad News

Nov 8, 2022 1 min read

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its October survey of small business owners today. They remain pessimistic about the general business outlook. They are still struggling to find workers and to keep them. In any event, their labor costs are rising rapidly and forcing them to raise their prices. They've been sucked into the economy's wage-price spiral. During October, 32% of small business owners

Ed Yardeni

PMI Prices-Paid Indexes Predicting Falling Inflation

Nov 5, 2022 1 min read

Rapidly rising inflation since early last year has forced the Fed to raise interest rates significantly this year. That's been bad news for stock and bond investors, particularly this year. From the end of the Great Financial Crisis through the end of the Great Virus Crisis (i.e., 2009-2021), the winning investment strategy was to own both assets. Investors' mantra was: "Don't fight the

Ed Yardeni

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